Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[ron johnson]

Meh, arguing with internet Austrians is a waste of time. I studied economics, undergrad engineering grad school econ, and referencing mises.org is a clown show. I have read about the recession of 1920, appropriately viewed as a post–World War I recession (at the time everything was called a depression before the Great Depression). In fact, Hoover's policies were initially based on the 1920 event but it didn't work. I could explain why but I doubt anyone cares.

Internet Austrian's who reference mises don't know what they don't know, and they really don't understand the Austrian viewpoint when it comes to the Fed. I could explain prices, NGDP, M1, M2, etc. but it's pointless because you don't have the background to understand it, it involves math, and I'm not interested in arguing.

Besides, there's literature on pandemics so when I write the risk of "economic collapse the results of which can persist for decades," it's not just some offhand comment.



For anyone else, this whole thing started with Ron's idea that we should just let business fail because they failed to plan for a pandemic. The problem with that idea is people are valuable and not interchangeable so you needlessly destroy a lot of human capital, and wiping out equity capital ignores how important the capitalization of large enterprises really is.

Wipe out Boeing, for example, and there's a good chance America stops making large commercial aircraft. Wipe out banks and then you have to figure out how to recapitalize the economy. The century old plan of "let all the equity be destroyed" slows down the rate at which you recapitalize—which gets back to the risk of decades long recovery.

People might not like the Fed, or Banks, or even Boeing but that's just an attitude not dispassionate analysis. There's a world of difference between improving those institutions and letting them be destroyed.

It's a bit of a running joke in Austrian circles that the more time you spend in higher ed econ the less you know. You seem to fit the case.

Hoover's policies were not based on 1920. The first thing he did was force businesses to not lower wage rates! Beyond that he was a true Keynesian deficit spender, he turned a $700 million surplus in 1929 to a $2.6 billion deficit by 1932.

The fact that you accused me of 'bubblemongering' tells me you don't have a clue about the Austrian viewpoint of the Fed.

My point is not that we should let businesses fail because they failed to plan for a pandemic. My point is that they should fail because they failed to plan for ANY type of economic downturn, and that bail outs continue this never ending moral hazard.

I targeted the airlines specifically for this. They spent $40 billion on stock buy backs since 2014 and now they want $50 billion in aid.

One thing that gets totally lost in this is that bankruptcy benefits consumers. New owners come in, the debt is wiped out, and now you have an unlevered company with better management that can lower prices. If you keep bailing everyone out, all you end up with is a destabilized economy with artificial asset bubbles that set the stage for the next meltdown and the cycle never ends.

[Thaleia]

Guys don't worry.

Dan Crenshaw is here to tell us to stop the finger pointing at Trump, while pointing fingers at the left. Oh and Trumps slow pace to take this thing seriously is excusable because in ~February no one knew how bad things would get - while demonizing the left for acting nonchalantly in February..

http://www.facebook.com/100000724400...1555307545251/

[MultiVerse]

Yep, goes back to my earlier post about understanding the data, and that most people don't.

Jono posted a good Khan academy video on how to understand growth and what the charts mean.

But even then, the problem with even the most recent data is when applying statistical analysis to who opts-in-or-out for testing, infection rates, CFR, etc. results in enormous upper and lower bounds, let alone exact answers. At this point there's no teasing out what's really going on and that's exhausting.

[Lvovsky]

[summit]

30 to 50% antibodies in Chicago testing
https://www.dailywire.com/news/early...es-report-says

Half of U.K. has antibodies?
https://reason.com/2020/03/25/half-o...-oxford-model/

JFC what horseshit.

Hearsay from a phlebotomist (this could be an 18 year old GED holder who went to some vocational night classes, no dig at phlebotomists, but they don't even have to have a college degree).

And the sample (if you can call what she pulled out of her ass for the reporter a sample) that she gave a huge fucking range on 30-50% was people who were feeling sick enough to be tested for Coronavirus!

Not representing the general population and we have no reason to believe the numbers before we get into the problems with the test itself.

Then you pop up a model based prediction about how many might have been infected under a bunch of preconditions that don't exist?

Do you read your links before you post? Seriously dude, you can do better. Think critically.

[Benny Profane]

What she doesnt believe there are 38K dead Americans from covid, sounds like an unprecedented level of arrogance, are there many like this ?
.
I think you folks down thar are on the uphill side of the curve, lets see how she thinks in a month ?


locally I see people are doing the 6 foot thing, i gotta wait to get in the liqour store and the post office, businesses are setting up stores to go one way, plexi sheilds in front of cashiers ... this shit is real

Realz yo. I just found out the rec dispensaries in Mass. are closed! Just medical. Sure glad I stocked up in February, big time.

[Benny Profane]

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I dont see a whole lot of flattening there.

[LeeLau]

The curve is bending for sure, but let's take a simple, conservative case trajectory assuming a doubling every 7 days (note, we're somewhere between 3 and 4 at the moment).

April 18 --- 690,714 cases --- 35,443 deaths
April 25 --- 1,381,438 cases --- 70,886 deaths
May 2 --- 2,762,856 cases --- 141,772 deaths
May 9 --- 5,525,712 cases --- 283,544 deaths

I agree the numbers aren't pretty; that the exponential trajectory holds true; and that, sans some miracle cure, the number of deaths are on track to be true to what Fauci estimates. However, at least it isn't the Imperial College worse-case.

I hold my breath hoping that the Southern states late to mitigation/suppression somehow avoid the worse of it.

[Benny Profane]

People need to realize that assuming this is a bell shaped curve, which is what most of the model project, that once we actually reach the peak (and we are not there yet,) then we basically double the number of deaths. Even being generous and speaking at 40,000, and allowing a steeper back side, we are still talking about 70,000+ deaths, and that is being optimistic. Wait until the second d and third waves. We are probably about to start the second wave thanks to Florida and a few other states.

You can still fly in between NY and Florida.

[Benny Profane]

mic drop on your whole post, well done.

No. Boeing, of any U.S. corporation, deserves to fail. Fail does not mean fail. It means board gone, CEO gone, shareholders fucked, but, the company is re organized in bankruptcy and most employees retained, because, after all, the world needs airplanes. You know, like GM. They're still around, leaner and meaner. You know, capitalism, not state supported crony capitalism.

[Buster Highmen]

It's a bit of a running joke in Austrian circles that the more time you spend in higher ed econ the less you know..

Like people that get Nobel prizes in Econ?

[liv2ski]

^^^^Agreed Benny

[m2711c]

Like people that get Nobel prizes in Econ?

the economics nobel isn’t really a nobel...


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-a-nobel/amp/

[jono]

Just remember, these two graphs are the same data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Of course. That's why I referred to the slopes at different doubling rates. Obviously as long as there's still a need to express it in those terms we still aren't in a place to get super optimistic, but I'm also guessing anyone with a passing understanding of the math can see that the second derivative on both those graphs is looking a lot better than it did through late March.

[jono]

Pasting the equation, the one below in between the quotes, into https://www.wolframalpha.com/ is another way of finding the answer:

" p=33000, c=100, g=30, 100*(1-1(1-c/p)^g) //N "

p = population
c = carriers
g = group size

So in town with 33000 people, 100 carriers, and 30 people in a group you get a 9% chance at least one person is infected.

If you increase the number of attendees, even if there's the same number of overall carriers in town, the risk skyrockets. With g=100 the risk rises to 26%, with g=500 the risk rises to 78%.



The equation explains why large events were cancelled. If the entire USA only had 20,000 infected people (randomly distributed) then for a large event like a playoff game or the March Madness finals the odds become more than 99%:

" p=330000000, c=20000, g=100000, 100*(1-1(1-c/p)^g) //N "

This is a very cool tool, especially as in your first example of it for Walla Walla, since looking at the infection rate in your own community can be a lot more believable than assuming homogeneity throughout the country. Works nicely in Excel, too, if the wolfram alpha site is intimidating.

[jono]

No. Boeing, of any U.S. corporation, deserves to fail. Fail does not mean fail. It means board gone, CEO gone, shareholders fucked, but, the company is re organized in bankruptcy and most employees retained, because, after all, the world needs airplanes. You know, like GM. They're still around, leaner and meaner. You know, capitalism, not state supported crony capitalism.

Letting the Wall Street idiots that drove Boeing down its recent path take it in the ass is exactly the right answer. Has there ever been a better reason to wipe out the shareholders and start again? Bail them out with some operating capital, fine, but take ownership and do an IPO like GM.

[iceman]

Can you morons take the economics somewehere else please? Jesus

And Multiverse, stop quoting Ron J. Stop it.

[summit]

I only come here for Mofro posts and EMS updates.

[iceman]

Well, and to post snarky little comments.

[jono]

There is only one thread

[MultiVerse]

No. Boeing, of any U.S. corporation, deserves to fail. Fail does not mean fail. It means board gone, CEO gone, shareholders fucked, but, the company is re organized in bankruptcy and most employees retained, because, after all, the world needs airplanes. You know, like GM. They're still around, leaner and meaner. You know, capitalism, not state supported crony capitalism.

With apologies to iceman for the econ response: Benny is describing a bankruptcy process that most of us would agree with but in this instance I'm specifically talking about a decapitalized economy, which is a real historic risk with pandemics. I'm talking about fail does mean fail. When that happens, and it has happened, it takes decades to recover.

[Benny Profane]

Can you morons take the economics somewehere else please? Jesus

And Multiverse, stop quoting Ron J. Stop it.

There's a shitload of people unemployed right now, on their way to the sidewalk or under a bridge, really hungry, while already fabulously wealthy elites have been gifted literally trillions of dollars, disregarding their failures. That is as much a result of the ravages of this virus as pneumonia and kidney failure. I know that a lot here are comfy in their white privilege bubbles, but the shit is really hitting the fan out there, in more ways than just ICU admittance.

[Benny Profane]

With apologies to iceman for the econ response: Benny is describing a bankruptcy process that most of us would agree with but in this instance I'm specifically talking about a decapitalized economy, which is a real historic risk with pandemics. I'm talking about fail does mean fail. When that happens, and it has happened, it takes decades to recover.

This will take decades to recover from. Get used to it.

[seano732]

Any of the number crunchers see this? I don’t do the math thing....Sweden.

[Buster Highmen]

the economics nobel isn’t really a nobel...


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-a-nobel/amp/

Strictly speaking, true.

But claiming that the Austrian school of economics isn't academic is just the biggest pile of bullshit as well as nothing more in this instance than another personal attack.