Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[The AD]

Like I said, you can't trust Americans to do the right thing by juts asking them. We all feel way to entitled to our freedom and liberty to be selfish.

Yep, this is a big problem.

[huckbucket]

They were making reagent mixes in rooms with Coronavirus dna/rna.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...034_story.html

[Rideski]

They were making reagent mixes in rooms with Coronavirus dna/rna.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...034_story.html

They paywalled it. Cliffnotes?

[altasnob]

IHME model on when it's safe to start lifting restrictions in each state, from the Seattle Times.

[m2711c]

They paywalled it. Cliffnotes?

the workspace was contaminated so the products were unusable.

[huckbucket]

They paywalled it. Cliffnotes?

Incognito works for me.

[huckbucket]

IHME model on when it's safe to start lifting restrictions in each state, from the Seattle Times.

Those three key criteria are a pipe dream. Horse has left the stables and is joining others in a stampede.

[frorider]

This morning a friend is dropping off some eggs from her chickens. Everyone seems to be baking bread. It’s all Little House on the Prairie up in here.

[Rideski]

Incognito works for me.

I forgot about that thanks. Had been just using reader view, works on a lot of them.

[old goat]

I'm of two minds on this one; I'm much more inclined to think that there's a significant cost to losing legitimacy by enforcing restrictions that cost quality of life without any real benefit. That's not sustainable. And there's risk in everything. My intent was merely to point out a couple of the risks of driving to recreate do they can be considered, not to say I think it should be banned--I don't.

But slower movement less often slows transmission and transmission increases concentration. It's not a question of whether it already exists in one place or another, but it does matter whether those places are on different points in their respective curves. Keeping the curves out of phase flattens the sum total. So yeah, driving is a minor risk bump and totally minimal for responsible people. But it also magnifies the actions of the irresponsible.

Excellent point about legitimacy. Too many lies (not just from Trump) and too many ridiculous rules and nobody believes anything. The mask thing is a perfect example. Anyone with half a brain knew that the idea that masks don't help was absurd and we were being lied to to save masks for HCWs.

As far as where different areas are on the curve--we have no idea because we have minimal testing. My guess is that except in very remote places the infection rate from place to place is pretty similar and that the difference in the clinical case rate has more to do with the population profile--average age, preexisting conditions, maybe genetic susceptibility or some degree of immunity--and less to do with the underlying infection rate.

[Rideski]

This morning a friend is dropping off some eggs from her chickens. Everyone seems to be baking bread. It’s all Little House on the Prairie up in here.

For real. A neighbor just gave me some Elk meat from a hunt, was fun to try something new.

[old goat]

Distance exactly matters. It's not everywhere, it's here and there in clusters. Most likely, the Roosevelt brought it to Guam. Had they not visited, Guam would have no cases. If Roosevelt hadn't stopped in Vietnam, it wouldn't have got to Roosevelt. Travel and distance makes a big difference.

For the specific example of Santa Cruz, if they are indeed successfully sheltering as Ottime suggests, then they may also successfully trace cases. If travelers keep bringing it in, that introduces new undiscovered transmission chains, these have no local trace. Same if travelers bring it home. Also, it's more difficult to trace cases across jurisdictions.

That was true initially. I think we're way past that now. And it's not just outdoor folk traveling to the outdoors--it's essential workers, truck drivers, what comes on trucks. "If you have the virus it came on a truck". Once the virus gets to a place--a ski town, a nursing home, a cruise ship--the spread within that community is highly dependent on the vulnerability of the population and the ability to distance and isolate in that environment. That's far, far more important than the small chance that a BC skier who drove 2 hours to ski for the day will introduce another case.

[Ottime]

^^^The problem is we can't rely on Americans doing such things responsibly. While many may do so, others stop to chat, snack, buy whatever. I'm not really worried about BC skiers. It is really easy to distance while skiing. But I do like that my local single track is empty, so I can enjoy it. If the parking lot were open, I would need to pass tons of people while only bike at less than 6'. Yesterday I passed literally no one, except two on the 6' paved access path.

Still wish more people would bike, and hike with a buff.

So two hours drive is cool. How about 4? 6? Where do we limit things?

While you are correct that this thing is everywhere, but how will a region be able to put it to bed, if we keep increasing traffic in/out of a region. Food must be transported, but we don't have to drive hours to get outside.

Yep, this is a big problem.

BTW, not all parking here is closed. Just the obvious parking spots are closed. Locals still know where to go to drive a few miles to access a more remote/less used trailhead or surf break.

[KQ]

Like I said, you can't trust Americans to do the right thing by juts asking them. We all feel way to entitled to our freedom and liberty to be selfish.

Apparently you can trust people in South Dakota.

Gov. Kristi L. Noem has not issued a stay-at-home order.

"We have seen such an outstanding call to action among the people of South Dakota that we actually have more people staying home than many of the other states that have put in shelter in place orders and have put together directives to tell people they can't leave their homes," she said at a town hall hosted by South Dakota Public Broadcasting on April 15.

[klauss]

having open parking lots is a problem at popular outdoor spots. I say keep the trails/beaches/mountains open but it should be only for people who are able to travel by foot/bike which will naturally help keep things safe enough to social distance while recreating.

Even in my home town, people who typically never use the trails were driving a mile to park then use the trails. The trails were stuffed as a result. Once they closed the parking down, the trails were more reasonable, although people were still driving and parking nearby to access. Less of a problem as we aren't a "destination."

But stuff like the coast or regionally popular hiking destinations like the Columbia river gorge gets hammered by people from far away when people know they can park.

https://katu.com/news/local/amid-cor...ning-residents

[KQ]

[rideit]

Have you ever heard of the Depression of 1920? I'm guessing not since the gov't did the opposite of what you advocate and the market recovered quickly on its own.

https://mises.org/library/forgotten-depression-1920

Are you saying that we should go back to almost totally unregulated markets and banking? Because that worked out real well ten years later.

[Flyoverland Captive]

A friend just got her test results back; she’s got it. She’s a life flight nurse in AZ. Says she’s never had such nasty body aches, just in pain all over. Her fever broke today, so she thinks she’s past the worst of it.

Stay at home, you shitheads.

[KQ]

A friend just got her test results back; she’s got it. She’s a life flight nurse in AZ. Says she’s never had such nasty body aches, just in pain all over. Her fever broke today, so she thinks she’s past the worst of it.

Stay at home, you shitheads.

Got word this morning of a friend who died.

[Flyoverland Captive]

Sorry to hear that KQ.

[Bunion 2020]

Are you saying that we should go back to almost totally unregulated markets and banking? Because that worked out real well ten years later.

Did you ever engage Ron in the Global Warming thread?

He is an idiot or a troll. Either way, please don't quote him/it.

[The AD]

Wife was on a video call with a couple friends recently. One of them lives in Arizona and she said they haven't had a big problem there because of the heat. My wife said "if the heat is so effective how do you explain Florida?" Her response was that that was all the fault of people traveling from New York. People can come up with an explanation for anything.

[jono]

That was true initially. I think we're way past that now. And it's not just outdoor folk traveling to the outdoors--it's essential workers, truck drivers, what comes on trucks. "If you have the virus it came on a truck". Once the virus gets to a place--a ski town, a nursing home, a cruise ship--the spread within that community is highly dependent on the vulnerability of the population and the ability to distance and isolate in that environment. That's far, far more important than the small chance that a BC skier who drove 2 hours to ski for the day will introduce another case.

The risk is certainly small. Probably not even enough to warrant the SJW thread in the main forum. But before anything can change we need to get to a level where contact tracing can be effective. That's not going to work while we're assuming it's everywhere.

And we may not get to that level, but that has to be a goal of the present strategy, because otherwise all we're doing is delaying while we wait for a vaccine. In addition to the inherent foolishness of putting all our eggs in one basket, waiting for a year in lockdown is much more expensive than even the most outlandish of contact tracing strategies.

[KQ]

Thanks FC. He will be missed.

and now for something a little lighter. He would have liked this:

Melania Trump Tested People With A White House Puzzle. It Did Not Go Well.

[Buster Highmen]

Got word this morning of a friend who died.

+++vibes+++ KQ