Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[MultiVerse]

Good thing hardly anyone in America has any one those underlying conditions....

I've read obesity is considered an underlying condition too.

Which means the actual mortality rate is higher, not lower.

Also, the false-positive rate (early Chinese tests were especially bad) among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' results from close contacts with COVID-19 infected people so still useful information for contact tracing and finding out if the virus exits in a community.

[El Chupacabra]

How do I put someone on ignore list on Tapatalk?

Nevermind, figured it out.

[bennymac]

BG - it’s ok to be out of your league on this issue. But anger trolling like this is just embarrassing.

[gravitylover]

Results finally came back after 6 days to confirm Covid-19 positive.
We already been self quarantined since March 14th, Saturday.
But now we are indefinitely quarantined until we hear from DOH.
Once we clear our symptoms, hear from DOH, then they are going to give us two tests to clear to leave the apartment.
Boyfriend is having harder time (or complains more) than I am.
But neither of us have chest pain or trouble breathing which's good.

Stay healthy and safe, mags.

Hang in there. I don't want to go any deeper into the hot zone than where I live, but if you really need something hit me up and I'll see what I can do. I'm only 25 miles away.

[Rideski]

Saw a person at the liquor store with easily $1k of bottles.

[bennymac]

If liquor stores close a lot of lower socioeconomic alcoholics are gonna go into withdrawal

[Rideski]

Keep your naive friends and fam aware drunk driving is going to spike.

[rideit]

Saw a person at the liquor store with easily $1k of bottles.

That would have been me 10 years ago.
Long live Popov!

[Mofro261]

have a friend who's 83 yro dad is COVID-19 positive at a nursing home in Central Oregon, not looking good.

[old goat]

The mortality rate is a fairly meaningless number at this point--except in a qualitative sense, ie it's bad but most people survive. The rate depends on how many tests and also who is tested--what percentage of the testees are well or only mildly ill. What matters is the number of deaths. People who survive with significant damage matter too but the number of deaths is a good surrogate for that. What should frighten you is that graphic showing the rate of increase of deaths from multiple countries. Since that is a logarithmic scale the lines should be straight if the disease is progressing unchecked or flattening if it is getting under control. Note that the US line, and only the US line is steepening, which means the spread is starting to take off. Unless something changes, the only thing that is going to slow the death rate down is that the virus is going to run out of people to infect--if you have it and everyone you come in contact with has had it you can't spread to someone else.

The mortality rate does matter--as a means of calculating the eventual number of deaths so we can decide if the measures being taken are too severe, just right, or too lax. To do that accurately will require testing everyone in a reasonably large community where the virus is well established. That might be easier to do once the rapid antibody test is widely available. (I'm sure people are running the rough numbers now for various death rates and various assumptions about economic cost.)_ Then you can roughly calculate, from the direct costs of treating and preventing infections and from the cost to the economy, the cost per year of life saved. This has been done for many interventions. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...d2Q8_blog.html
Then you can calculate how many lives could be saved if that amount were spent otherwise. I've seen estimates of 2M deaths in the US. Total deaths per year in the US in 2018 was 2.8M.

What you can't calculate is how much saving a life is worth vs the value of other things--like education, mental health, stable families, etc, etc.

[Boissal]

If liquor stores close a lot of lower socioeconomic alcoholics are gonna go into withdrawal

They were closed in SLC on Thu because of the earthquake, apparently lots of bottles took a ride and there was some major cleanup to do. They were only allowing 10 peeps in the store when they reopened and the lines were longer than at Costco. Ms Boissal was talking to the neighbor from across the street and he was complaining about it, his alcoholic wife is a major wench and had run dry, he was in full panic mode. She actually offered him a bottle of whisky than was already there when I moved in with her 3+ years ago. When I came home that evening there were 2 rolls of TP by the front door. Interesting barter...

[muted]

They were closed in SLC on Thu because of the earthquake, apparently lots of bottles took a ride and there was some major cleanup to do. They were only allowing 10 peeps in the store when they reopened and the lines were longer than at Costco. Ms Boissal was talking to the neighbor from across the street and he was complaining about it, his alcoholic wife is a major wench and had run dry, he was in full panic mode. She actually offered him a bottle of whisky than was already there when I moved in with her 3+ years ago. When I came home that evening there were 2 rolls of TP by the front door. Interesting barter...

When people lose their jobs and can't pay for drugs: gonna be a lot of petty theft around here. Speaking of whiskey, I just went to Sugarhouse Distillery and picked up a bottle of Whiskey and free hand sanitizer. They started making it and should have a lot to give away on Monday, right now it's one bottle per person. No line now to get one though, Monday should be crowded.

[wkd-rdr]

Mexican clusters originated from Vail.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...returning-home

[Benny Profane]

Shit gettin real now!

Before we bury this, isn't it supposed to be realz, not real? And yo. Not, now. Yo.

[old goat]

The problem with Italian press release, which I suspect lost a lot in translation, is that it is mixing up coincidence with causality. If most people who die are old, and most people who are old have multiple comorbidities, then most people who die will have multiple comorbidities. That doesn't mean that the comorbidities caused the death or even necessarily contributed to it.

If Italian death certificates are anything like American, there is a place for the doctor to enter everything else wrong with the person besides what killed them. Also, many doctors will list the terminal event as the cause of death--cardiac arrest for example--when that is simply the end result of the true cause of death--COVID 19. A bureaucrat analyzing death certificates may well chalk the death up to heart disease. (Everyone dies of cardiac arrest eventually.)

[TBS]

have a friend who's 83 yro dad is COVID-19 positive at a nursing home in Central Oregon, not looking good.

Deschutes County? We have eight total (known) cases as of today. Vibes to friend and mostly his dad

[rideit]

Can any of you sciency types explain why the Spanish Flu topped out at infecting 1/3 of the global population?
Did it just not like the other 2/3rds?

[Benny Profane]

When people lose their jobs and can't pay for drugs: gonna be a lot of petty theft around here. Speaking of whiskey, I just went to Sugarhouse Distillery and picked up a bottle of Whiskey and free hand sanitizer. They started making it and should have a lot to give away on Monday, right now it's one bottle per person. No line now to get one though, Monday should be crowded.

This is why Cuomo called out the national guard. They want to prepare. And Utah does a Venn diagram of alcoholics and gun owners. That's not good. You're going to envy our gun free society back here.

[Toadman]

Saw a person at the liquor store with easily $1k of bottles.

Lady in front of me at the Rie-Aid had two bottles of Chardonnay. That's all she bought. Hey, it IS Friday.

[Core Shot]

Shit might get reel
Soon
Fishing season is here

[Vt-Freeheel]

I posted this a couple days ago.

To embed FB vids click on "inset video" Ikon above and load the address into it

No idea how to embed a Facebook video, but this is hilarious and perfect for this crowd: https://www.facebook.com/pete.keane.3/videos

[Benny Profane]

Lady in front of me at the Rie-Aid had two bottles of Chardonnay. That's all she bought. Hey, it IS Friday.

Australian Chardonnay?

[goldenboy]

I posted this a couple days ago.

To embed FB vids click on "inset video" Ikon above and load the address into it

Ah, didn't think you could do that on the FB side of things. Sorry for the repost, hilarious either way.

[old goat]

The California dental association has asked the state to give guidelines for the treatment of dental patients during the pandemic. They have recommended treating only urgent and emergent cases for 2 weeks. This paragraph caught my eye:
"In the meantime, without clear guidance, CDA strongly recommends dentists only see urgent and emergency care patients if they have the supplies and PPE to do so. If a practice does not have the supplies or PPE, CDA recommends all emergency patients be referred to a hospital emergency department. As the state develops clear guidance, we will revise these recommendations accordingly. "

What are they going to do in an ER for a patient with an abscessed tooth or other dental emergency? There aren't the equipment or the personnel to treat it. Talk about passing the buck. I can see the ER telling the person to go back to their dentist.

[bobz]

GameStop is staying open, because they consider themselves "essential retail" (another article confirmed that Bay Area GameStop stores are indeed open this week, in obvious defiance of the local orders). Oh, and employees need to bring their own hand sanitizer.