Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Cono Este]

A woman in Columbia, Mo died in her home. She was diagnosed and sent into home quarantine. Six first responders are now in quarantine for exposure.

It’s taking out the very people we need to treat people! 6 for 1!


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[Cono Este]

I’m not leaving my house. All the health insurers sent out emails banning agents from home visits with seniors.

Sucks the resorts are closed.


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[Danno]

.

[Ottime]

What's the collective opinion on employers who think that COVID 19 is "overblown" and don't want to grant the ability to work remotely without a huge fight?

Fuck 'em ... or fuck 'em?

Fuck them.

[Ski220]

Interesting. Thanks!

I posted this a couple of days ago but it is interesting and explains a little about the make up of a virus and how it is destroyed by washing with soap and water.

https://futurism.com/neoscope/soap-w...er-coronavirus

[powdork]

Circling back on an earlier topic, a new paper suggests SARS-CoV-2 will likely be constrained by climate conditions.

The results are based on existing data so they may not be robust but it looks like the virus prefers cool and dry conditions. Specifically between 11°C to 25°C (52°F - 77°F). The strongest result is with humidity due to physics, higher humidity decreases transmission radius and the amount of time droplets remain airborne. It's similar, but the not the same as the flu.

Cooler temperatures do not allow for high absolute humidity. So in essence, the virus survives best in the temp/humidity range as air conditioned buildings.

Outside of conditioned spaces, the analysis indicates SARS-CoV-2 thrives in warm temperate climates between October to May and cold temperate climates between April and September. The virus is incapable of surviving for long in extreme hot or extreme cold environments.

From June to September, much of higher latitude regions of the southern hemisphere, like Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and Southern Africa will likely be become exposed to new outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Models also project highest latitude regions of the northern hemisphere to be badly hit by the Coronavirus during this period, including Canada and Russia, but also the Scandinavian countries. While northern hemisphere (chiefly Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK, and USA) should see a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infectections and then pick up again from September through May.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...ymW6nHvr4tqmsA

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/173/2/127/99316

https://www.pnas.org/content/106/9/3243

i don't get it. i read all that and come up with exactly the opposite conclusion.


and tomorrow will mark the day Italy's death toll passes China's.

[Spats]

2200 cases on Friday, 8700 today.
Doubling every 3 days?

Today's figure is 7,038. (3/18/20)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
(There's a several day lag, since it takes a few days to test and report results.)

Most importantly, and BEFORE ANYONE PANICS and BEFORE ANYONE STARTS FLIPPING OUT ABOUT GEOMETRIC PROGRESSIONS, look at the graph of "Number of specimens tested":



On March 13, the most recent day on which we have complete results, we tested 4661 people.
A week earlier, on March 6, we tested less than half of that: 1759 people.
A week earlier, on February 28, we tested 164 people.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ing-in-us.html

If you test over 28 times as many people (4661/164), you are going to get 28 times more positive tests even if no one new has been infected!

Furthermore, as I've shown before, Covid-19 testing is remarkably inaccurate. In Chinese testing, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%.

This means that the more tests we run, the more positive tests for Covid-19 will magically appear - especially as more tests become available and we start testing people who are asymptomatic or only marginally sick. What will happen then is that the infection rate will keep going up rapidly, but the mortality rate will plummet.

Today we're currently at 97 deaths and 7,038 cases, for a mortality rate of 1.3% - which is already far lower than the "3.4% we're all gonna die!!11!1" scenarios. This ratio will continue to decrease as the number of tests continues to increase geometrically.

Once again, and as I've said since my very first post, "Be smart." We can fuck it all up by acting like everything's over. Be cautious with your social interactions. Have and use a thermometer regularly, to check yourself for developing fever. Communicate with family and friends who are stuck at home: we're all short some human contact.

But please, ease up on the hysteria. First responders and our medical system are being overwhelmed by people who are panicking at the first sign of a cough or sniffle. Let them care for the people who are genuinely in trouble.

Thank you.

[powdork]

^^yes but how to explain the geometric progression of the deaths, and their accuracy

[LeeLau]

Double post

[powdork]

first two members of congress
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navirus-136300

[Rideski]

More cruise ship madness
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/bus...241306276.html

[powdork]

^^crazy

also, glad to be type o negative
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/cor...241297121.html

[powdork]

and to bring back some of the good from this thread. we just need a little summer breeze (type o negative)
http://vimeo.com/12667192

[subtle plague]

Fuck you morons that insist on calling it Chinese or Kung Flu.

Im naming it SARs2-Electric Flugaloo

I'm chiming in late but didn't the white house call it cofveve 19?

[powdork]

It was covfefe, which is even more apropros

[powdork]

also, regarding all the trials, China has to be doing tons. They have (according to the stat aggregators) over 2600 in serious/critical condition.

[LegoSkier]

Covid data nerd-fu courtesy of Tableau
https://www.tableau.com/covid-19-cor...pany-Statement

[Rideski]

[LongShortLong]

But please, ease up on the hysteria. First responders and our medical system are being overwhelmed by people who are panicking at the first sign of a cough or sniffle. Let them care for the people who are genuinely in trouble.

Thank you.

Sniffles taking up all the negative pressure rooms, eh? TMYK

False positives can be an issue. This is my guess why South Korea has an abnormally low CFR. I'm guessing a good chunk of their cases don't actually have it. Also they responded early and have not exceeded their healthcare capacity.

You got the association between more testing and more positives wrong (or fatfingered it). More testing produces proportionately more false positives. More infections produces proportionately more true positives. Changing the criteria for testing also messes with the numbers. Sadly, my guess is testing continues to lag, and in another week or so we'll switch to presumed positives, as the Chinese were forced to do.

And geometric progression/exponential growth is plague 101. Caused by the plague, completely independent of the testing.

Stay away and stay healthy.

[grinch]

Mayors got a bad case



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[skifishbum]

What's the collective opinion on employers who think that COVID 19 is "overblown" and don't want to grant the ability to work remotely without a huge fight?

Fuck 'em ... or fuck 'em?

if you raised your hand and took an oath to defend the country
you aint doin it from home
if you didn't
you probably have a choice of remaining an employee of employers you feel are fuckin you
props to the hand raisers who don't have that option easily available

[detrusor]

Or if you took the hippocratic oath....


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[grinch]

3 more weeks of being an "essential service" . Almost time for some real social distancing

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[cat in january]

Red Cross blood donations for other needs concern me. Last time I tried about eight years ago I was denied because of relations with a woman who lived in Africa. I will check and see if that is still the case. If you are looking to do some good and you can, donate blood.

Checked and past time frame on the malaria contact potential, but blood thinner due to recent surgery will keep me on the sideline for a month

[Ripzalot]

https://youtu.be/klmbakIW-GA

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