Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[bennymac]

What - the ultra rich are gonna just show up at the hospital and be like "oh, you're out of ventilators? don't worry I brought my own"

[mcski]

[summit]

What - the ultra rich are gonna just show up at the hospital and be like "oh, you're out of ventilators? don't worry I brought my own"

that's fucking hilarious

[KQ]

I really hope that this is legit.
My housemate is not really practicing social distancing very well. Goes over to his buddies every evening after work and drinks and smokes cigarettes . Buddy lives in a house with an 80 yo gent and 50 yo woman.

Question I've been debating with myself today is, do I just say something to him? Or give him an ultimatum?
What say you all?

What To Do If Your Family Or Friends Aren't Taking Coronavirus Seriously

[MultiVerse]

Circling back on an earlier topic, a new paper suggests SARS-CoV-2 will likely be constrained by climate conditions.

The results are based on existing data so they may not be robust but it looks like the virus prefers cool and dry conditions. Specifically between 11°C to 25°C (52°F - 77°F). The strongest result is with humidity due to physics, higher humidity decreases transmission radius and the amount of time droplets remain airborne. It's similar, but the not the same as the flu.

Cooler temperatures do not allow for high absolute humidity. So in essence, the virus survives best in the temp/humidity range as air conditioned buildings.

Outside of conditioned spaces, the analysis indicates SARS-CoV-2 thrives in warm temperate climates between October to May and cold temperate climates between April and September. The virus is incapable of surviving for long in extreme hot or extreme cold environments.

From June to September, much of higher latitude regions of the southern hemisphere, like Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and Southern Africa will likely be become exposed to new outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2. Models also project highest latitude regions of the northern hemisphere to be badly hit by the Coronavirus during this period, including Canada and Russia, but also the Scandinavian countries. While northern hemisphere (chiefly Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK, and USA) should see a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infectections and then pick up again from September through May.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...ymW6nHvr4tqmsA

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/173/2/127/99316

https://www.pnas.org/content/106/9/3243

[MultiVerse]

You are 100% right.

We are being told to go to droplet masks because we cannot get enough respirators.

And that reusing droplet masks is coming soon.

I am livid.

It's appalling and it's not just health care workers, local hospitals here in Utah are faced with rationing masks between workers and immunocompromised, such as transplant, patients who wear masks even in the absence of an epidemic.

[Cono Este]

2200 cases on Friday, 8700 today.

Doubling every 3 days?


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[The Tortoise]

Can I just say that my face has never itched so much in my entire life? Arrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh!

Fucking hell. So much this.

[riser4]

No... just the fact I'm not supposed to touch it. [emoji1]

At least that's what the judge told me along with the restraining order...

[Name Redacted]

[riser4]

Can I just say that my face has never itched so much in my entire life? Arrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh!

Try having a big bushy beard.

[BmillsSkier]

You can't unsee that once you do.

[My Pet Powder Goat]

Shaved mine two weeks ago. Couldn't stop touching and twisting it. Face touching has dropped by 95%

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[natty dread]

Summit that just seems ridiculous. You know as well/better than me that first rule in rescue situations is to keep the rescuers safe.

Seems like an OSHA violation. What would happen if you told TPTB to fuck off until they can provide appropriate PPE?

There is no way I would show up to work if my fd told me i had to reuse N95s or other disposable mask.

[riser4]

Shaved mine two weeks ago. Couldn't stop touching and twisting it

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I haven't been out of the house in two weeks.

[east or bust]

Local grocery store completely ransacked. JHC people are stupid, and apparently hate Alfredo sauce.

Holy fuck this is the worst stuff I’ve ever tasted!!!!

[The SnowShow]

Why the FUCK can’t we match what a country like South Korea or Germany is doing with testing output? WTF??!!

[rideit]

Because Trump

[east or bust]

Seriously, if I try to go get tested tomorrow with non debilitating symptoms will I be turned away?

[Rideski]

[rideit]

First case just announced in Teton County (wy)

[Benny Profane]

Why the FUCK can’t we match what a country like South Korea or Germany is doing with testing output? WTF??!!

Because if you don't test, nobody is sick.

[LeeLau]

In response to a COVID denier whose argument that infection rate and fatalities would be "statistically insignificant" I modelled WA state and King County's numbers. Please poke holes in my back-of-the envelope calcs

Calculations were sourced

- CDC (hover mouse over geog area)

- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - data from national centres

- https://cov2019.info/ - scrapes from national centres and news real-time

WA state
On March 14 - 643 cases
Today March 18 - 1012 cases

King County

March 14- 388
March 18 - 518

So we have a double every 4.5 days implying a case increase rate of 17% per day
At that rate "only" 500k WA state residents will be infected in 45 days.

At 400 cases per 1M of population the healthcare system breaks down if we take Italy as an example

Marc 14 - MWA state 135 per 1m. Time to breakdown. 9 days
Marc 14 - King County 235 per 1m. Time to breakdown. 5.5 days

This assumes that WA state is unprepared. I doubt that since there's been time to react so the healthcare time to breakdown may be higher than the Italy level of 400 per 1m population

Hospitalizations

With a 4.5 day doubling, 500K WA state residents have cases in 45 days ( assuming that the Covid deniers of the world have their say; that mitigation measures are therefor not optimal, and therefore that the rate of increase holds at 17%). By way of a NPR poll 56% of Americans believe that COVID is not a big deal and that the mitigation efforts are overblown so that seems to be a reasonable assumption.

Blending the Imperial college numbers and doing a weighted average in my head from 0 - 50; 3.2% require hospitalization (median age of WA state is 38 years old)

So that's 8,000 hospitalizations of 0-50 years old

Above 50 years old lets' deploy some rough math and weight the average of hospitalizations at 16%.

So that's 40,000 hospitalizations.

Total is 48000 additional hospitalizations. Let's look at how many beds there are to spare in WA state per the
NYTimes. Apparently the system will need another 188% additional beds. That's 2.7x additional hospital beds needed in 45 days.

Data re hospitalizations from this chart from this peer-reviewed study https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

[summit]

Why the FUCK can’t we match what a country like South Korea or Germany is doing with testing output? WTF??!!

We are diagnosing people with probable COVID pneumonia and sending them home on oxygen with instructions to self quarantine.

And public health doesn't want the report because they don't have the bandwidth.

And the state won't count these as cases without tests.

But there ARE NO TESTS. (unless you are hospital admission sick)

Then people say "oh but there aren't THAT many cases..."

FUCKING UNBELIEVABLE

[highangle]

15:00 - Phone call from a fireman friend says we now have a case of coronavirus in Qutalleq. 'Everyone should shelter in place. Let me know if you guys need anything from the store.'
15:30 - Phone beeps alert "Positive test for COVID-19"...

“The individual had been traveling out of the country, and self-reported and self-isolated when mild symptoms appeared,” the city said. The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services is in contact with the person and reaching out to those who may have had contact with them, according to the City..."