OFFICIAL TAHOE 18/19 STOKE, CONDITIONS, WEATHER THREAD

[hercule33]

Gonna be the mother of all clusterfucks (MOAC) this weekend. I doubt the game has much of an effect on the crowds as much as it used to.

I agree but I don’t think that South Lake will be quite as bad as a few weeks ago. I think that drive will discourage a few Bay Area from driving back on Sunday or coming up. Still there will be enough jabronis to mess things up big time.

[Ottime]

Of course I'm going to be in Chicago this weekend - figures. Seems like a good storm cycle to 'accidentally' get stuck in the mountains on Monday and Tuesday.

If anyone wants some Protests I can sell and drop off today (;

This would be my plan pre-child 100%. I’d already be getting my shit together to bail early on work and drive up.

Stoked we have family plans for skiing next weekend and not this one. Another w/e with BA snow chaser getting burned out only help folks like me.

I do miss my brief period of consulting with no child. I’d be letting my clients know I’m pretty much booked all next week. Maybe could call in later Thursday or Friday.

[sierraskier]

Reading this thread leaves me so bipolar.

Lady and I are thinking of a move later this year, and Reno is high on the list of places to consider.

On the one hand, the deep pow days posted in here leave you salivating.

On the other hand, the travel issues even coming from the East side seem like a real suck on good days.

Is midweek skiing the only legit option for those living around Lake Tahoe anymore?

It depends on which side of town you are living in and where you are going to ski. I live in the same neighborhood as El Chup (extreme SW Reno off Mt Rose highway). Our neighborhood is actually 7.1mi from Mt Rose, but who's measuring I grew up skiing the western slope (Squaw, Alpine, etc.) and was a passholder until 3yrs ago.

To answer your question about midweek skiing, this last Saturday I skied Mt Rose, lapping the Chutes (which rivals any other Tahoe resorts steepest terrain, ~1500' vert). I think I only encountered any skiers, other than our group of four on the run, twice in about 3hrs (maybe ~2 out of 10 laps). Mt Rose does not have the amount of terrain that a Squaw or Alpine does but it also is the complete opposite of the traffic and operations shit show they have been in recent years. I also think they do a much better job of keeping lifts open in high wind than upper mountains of Squaw/Alpine. I lived in Tahoe previously so haven't commuted from NW Reno to Squaw/Alpine but generally try to avoid I80.

So no, midweek is not the only option unless you are dead-set on skiing only Squaw Valley. And if you tour, that obviously opens up the amount of skiable terrain by about 1000%

[El Chupacabra]

Tip for fast travels to Mt Rose ski area: live at the bottom of Mt Rose highway -- when I lived there (near the Raley's supermarket), I didn't have to clear snow much. Moved uphill in elevation, and a couple miles further west, and now I spend a lot of time clearing snow. So even though I live closer now, I spend a lot more time being able to get out of the house before skiing.

[NakedShorts]

I agree but I don’t think that South Lake will be quite as bad as a few weeks ago. I think that drive will discourage a few Bay Area from driving back on Sunday or coming up. Still there will be enough jabronis to mess things up big time.

WRONG - 50 will be an EPIC SHIT SHOW. IF 80 Closes it will be even more of an epic shit show, the wind makes me believe this will happen. 50 will be closing on Sunday if this storm delivers just due to avalanche control. Once that happens it takes 4 hours at least to get to Meyers from the Y (after 9am) after the road re-opens. The Spur closes Saturday at 4 - 6pm and DOES NOT Re-OPEN UNTIL TUESDAY.

This storm is forecast to go through Monday with LOW snow levels.

If you come, come prepared to sit on the road in your car!

[hercule33]

WRONG - 50 will be an EPIC SHIT SHOW. IF 80 Closes it will be even more of an epic shit show, the wind makes me believe this will happen. 50 will be closing on Sunday if this storm delivers just due to avalanche control. Once that happens it takes 4 hours at least to get to Meyers from the Y (after 9am) after the road re-opens. The Spur closes Saturday at 4 - 6pm and DOES NOT Re-OPEN UNTIL TUESDAY.

This storm is forecast to go through Monday with LOW snow levels.

If you come, come prepared to sit on the road in your car!

Definitely be prepared but I do like how 3-5 feet over three to four days is now going to bring Tahoe to a standstill. I remember driving through bigger storms without much traffic and without 50 or 80 closing.

We will see what happens but that horrible traffic a few weekends ago I think was compounded by all the holiday visitors who have zero experience driving in the snow and decided to leave on Sunday because their lodging that they booked months ago ended and they lacked better judgement. I won’t be coming back on Sunday or Monday for sure.

[NakedShorts]

Most snow storms stick around for 6 - 8 hours...Not 48 - 72

[powdork]

i don't see this one being that bad. we're only supposed to have like 2' max by the time everyone leaves sunday and while that will be a cluster on sunday morning and early afternoon it shouldn't be too bad
1. not a holiday weekend
2. some people are scared to come up
3. The game will keep some people here later cutting down on morning traffic

Monday morning could also be a cluster just because that's when we should have seen the most snow but most people should already be gone so it will be mostly our own cluster

[hercule33]

Most snow storms stick around for 6 - 8 hours...Not 48 - 72

This fact contradicts your previous point about avalanche control. Slow continuous snowfall does not create high avalanche danger, the huge dumps over a short period of time do.

[liv2ski]

I’d be letting my clients know I’m pretty much booked all next week. Maybe could call in later Thursday or Friday.

That is pretty much my M.O. these days. My dogs are bummed when I leave, but through the roof when I get back home.

[liv2ski]

Tip for fast travels to Mt Rose ski area: live at the bottom of Mt Rose highway -- when I lived there (near the Raley's supermarket), I didn't have to clear snow much. Moved uphill in elevation, and a couple miles further west, and now I spend a lot of time clearing snow. So even though I live closer now, I spend a lot more time being able to get out of the house before skiing.

In Foghorn Leghorns voice: "Son, you need you one of these contraptions"

[powdork]

This fact contradicts your previous point about avalanche control. Slow continuous snowfall does not create high avalanche danger, the huge dumps over a short period of time do.

the central rockies may disagree

[El Chupacabra]

^^^ Make that a circa 1985 diesel Dodge, and that's what my neighbor has. He clears the main part of the shared driveway with that, or a snowblower mounted on a tractor. If I want to get out of my driveway (the unshared part) earlier, and go ski, I have to get out there with the Ariens and get cranking.

Lower down on Mt Rose highway and you don't need a snowblower at all. A shovel is plenty. I had a neighbor back then who never even shoveled; they just waited for the sun to melt it off (south-facing driveway).

[LightRanger]

This fact contradicts your previous point about avalanche control. Slow continuous snowfall does not create high avalanche danger, the huge dumps over a short period of time do.

[hercule33]

the central rockies may disagree

Lol, they get their avy problems because of the lack of snowfall and cold temps. Cloud over and continuous snowfall would eliminate many of their PWL problems that they have.

[Robojerry]

This fact contradicts your previous point about avalanche control. Slow continuous snowfall does not create high avalanche danger, the huge dumps over a short period of time do.

Sustained very heavy snowfall over a 72 hour period is not going to create high avalanche danger?




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[powdork]

Lol, they get their avy problems because of the lack of snowfall and cold temps. Cloud over and continuous snowfall would eliminate many of their PWL problems that they have.

right, and those cold temps keep PWLs healthy over a longer period of time so that slow continuous snowfall and winds has the same effect as large storms all at once

[hercule33]

Sustained very heavy snowfall over a 72 hour period is not going to create high avalanche danger?




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Let me put it this way, sustained snowfall over 72 hours is far better for avalanche conditions than the same amount of snow falling in 8 to 12 hours. Considering that our deep slab problem is pretty much over, unless new surface hoar gets buried we should be ok except for windslabs and storms slabs. Both of these will benefit greatly from the slower snowfall.

[hercule33]

right, and those cold temps keep PWLs healthy over a longer period of time so that slow continuous snowfall and winds has the same effect as large storms all at once

True. But remember that the PWL formed because of the lack of continuous snowfall and cold clear nights. Once they do form though, the cold temperatures and light snow make things worse. That being said, Tahoe is not continental snowpack as indicated by the fact that our PWL problem is gone. It will be interesting to see if any surface hoar gets buried by this storm though.

[Robojerry]

Let me put it this way, sustained snowfall over 72 hours is far better for avalanche conditions than the same amount of snow falling in 8 to 12 hours. Considering that our deep slab problem is pretty much over, unless new surface hoar gets buried we should be ok except for windslabs and storms slabs. Both of these will benefit greatly from the slower snowfall.

This is completely false.

The snowfall is not expected to be “slow”. It’s forecasted to be “fast” over an extended period of time. Wind slabs can produce avalanches every bit as large (or much larger) as a persistent slab avalanche. And wind slabs don’t need a persistent grain type to avalanche.

You don’t know what you’re talking about, and that’s okay. But you’re arguing with people that do.


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[LightRanger]

This is the dumbest fucking conversation ever when the forecast is 5-10 feet over 3-4 days with high winds.

Like maybe the weather service is hyping it up a bit after what happened a month ago, but it's still never been a forecast in the last 2-3 days that wouldn't result in serious avalanche concerns and, as of yesterday or so in the forecast models, road closure concerns.

5-10' over 3-4 days has always resulted in such things. This isn't new, as previously implied.

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[hercule33]

This is completely false.

The snowfall is not expected to be “slow”. It’s forecasted to be “fast” over an extended period of time. Wind slabs can produce avalanches every bit as large (or much larger) as a persistent slab avalanche. And wind slabs don’t need a persistent grain type to avalanche.

You don’t know what you’re talking about, and that’s okay. But you’re arguing with people that do.


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I don’t even know where to start. My comment started from the 50 closing from avalanche danger. I stand by my comment and the fact that I have driven over 50 during storms that had higher snowfall amounts and WIND. No one is arguing that wind slabs are a big issue, but are you saying that a foot of snowfall with 80 mph wind will create a bigger windslab than 3 feet with 80 mph wind?

[LightRanger]

You're moving the goalposts and arguing with yourself, dude. Nobody suggested 1 foot is greater than three feet. Just as nobody suggested 10 feet in 8-12 hours would result in better conditions than that amount over 3-4 days. Where you went wrong is when you misconstrued post #1863. And made a blanket statement about avalanche science that isn't true (at least without additional context).

The latest forecast, if it pans out, is a giant storm. That's the point. One that would have resulted in road closures in the good old days of 2011 or whenever the fuck you're talking about.

[hercule33]

This is the dumbest fucking conversation ever when the forecast is 5-10 feet over 3-4 days with high winds.

Like maybe the weather service is hyping it up a bit after what happened a month ago, but it's still never been a forecast in the last 2-3 days that wouldn't result in serious avalanche concerns and, as of yesterday or so in the forecast models, road closure concerns.

5-10' over 3-4 days has always resulted in such things. This isn't new, as previously implied.

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I stand corrected if the numbers are 5 to 10 feet over 3-4 days with high winds. That’s some serious snow/wind and will create SERIOUS avalanche danger.

[meter-man]

SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU FUCKING MORON!