OFFICIAL TAHOE 18/19 STOKE, CONDITIONS, WEATHER THREAD

[gone2alpine]

Out of town a couple of days and came to look for some stoke and maybe to bitch too.
Dreading the incoming storm as KCRA has hyped it to the max. It's going to be another 3 hour drive to Truckee this weekend.

Skiing and roads getting more crowded? You betcha. I am a firm believer that the culprit is not just IKON and Epic passes, it short term rental availability. The limiting factor in Tahoe used to be that when hotels filled and a limited number of private rentals were filled, people did not come to Tahoe. But now with almost universal availability of housing due to AirBnB and the like, far more people can come to Tahoe.

Truckee used to hit 110% of capacity only on major holidays when families were using their cabins...now most of those places are full every single weekend and powder event. Take a drive around Tahoe Donner on a weekend and streets that used to be 50% dark on a weekend are now nearly always 100% occupied.

This is why we are outstripping the infrastructure of roads...or me thinks a big part of it. The people that build roads and provide services should be taxing the shit of these rentals.

Now off to find some corn like snow before the weekend shitshow begins...

[powdork]

In the Epic Pass restrictions thread folks were blaming the growth of local populations as a prime driver of traffic and crowding problems. That may be true in Truckee and Squaw since they're out of the basin but in the basin growth is greatly regulated by the TRPA. This was my reply in that thread (the numbers are just for examples)
"In places like Tahoe and Kirkwood there aren't more locals. In fact the local population has been on the decline as home prices increase and go to the highest bidders from the bay area that keep them as second homes and rent them out short term. So in the past there may have been 8,000 homes with locals some of whom have kids that will ski on the weekends. An additional 2,000 homes half of which sat empty and half of which had vacationers. Now you have 5,000 homes with locals some of whom have kids that ski on weekends, and 5,000 homes 4,500 of which have vacationers and 500 of which sit empty. Plus 2,000 homes off the hill that workers live in but still have to travel up here. The net result is lots more people in town, and WAY more miles traveled on local roads."

[TahoeJ]

Skiing and roads getting more crowded? You betcha. I am a firm believer that the culprit is not just IKON and Epic passes, it short term rental availability. The limiting factor in Tahoe used to be that when hotels filled and a limited number of private rentals were filled, people did not come to Tahoe. But now with almost universal availability of housing due to AirBnB and the like, far more people can come to Tahoe.

Truckee used to hit 110% of capacity only on major holidays when families were using their cabins...now most of those places are full every single weekend and powder event. Take a drive around Tahoe Donner on a weekend and streets that used to be 50% dark on a weekend are now nearly always 100% occupied.

This is why we are outstripping the infrastructure of roads...or me thinks a big part of it. The people that build roads and provide services should be taxing the shit of these rentals.

Usually the talk of second homes goes straight to the lack of long term rentals, but never thought about the traffic angle. You're probably right to some degree, but it's definitely a combination of that, more wealth in the bay area, and increased demand due to everyone having season passes now and trying to get their money's worth out of them. I still think that last part is the biggest force, as it also encourages more day trippers from Sacramento, etc. Not to mention, Reno is one of the fastest growing cities in the US.

If you ban short term rentals, does traffic get even worse due to people staying the night in Reno or wherever the closest location is that allows them (Incline Village, for example)? Or is it offset by more employees not having to drive as far with more local housing options?

FWIW, Truckee / Nevada County charges 12% taxes on STR's, which is a pretty decent amount... and they've been using that money to improve parking and infrastructure around town quite a bit over the past few years.

[kimchijajonshim]

Fuck me, the weekend forecast blew up in the past 12 hours. I checked last night and it was calling for 2-ish feet by Monday morning. Now looks like that might be as much as 5' through Monday night.

Debating on this weekend. I'm wondering if they'll even be able to reasonably dig out the lifts in that kind of storm. And I have a flight I need to catch Monday morning.

[sruffian]

If you ban short term rentals, does traffic get even worse due to people staying the night in Reno or wherever the closest location is that allows them (Incline Village, for example)? Or is it offset by more employees not having to drive as far with more local housing options?.

The short term rental angle is an interesting one, and it does seem that most of the epic pass users who aren't from around here are staying in rentals of one kind or another, not hotels. For where I ski (kirkwood and rose), I sincerely doubt significant numbers of central valley / bay area people are going to make the drive into Reno, ski two days, and drive back to the bay. Been wrong before though.

[hercule33]

I agree that the traffic is mostly due to the increase of demand due to the booming economy. You can have all the Airbnb’s in the world but if no one wants to ski the crowds will be minimal. I also agree that season passes have increased the number of visits because people want to “break even.” Vail’s visitor numbers keep increasing according to their reports.

As for banning rentals, this for me is a question on how you feel about local control. If you have a problem with people who don’t spend more than 50% of their time in the community making big changes to a community, you could support rules like this. I am not sure what it would do for traffic but my guess is that it would decrease it. How much, I have no idea.

On a side note, expect companies like Vail and Alterra to support the effort to ban local rentals. Not only do they get to charge more for their on the hill lodging, the higher house rental prices all around mean that wealthier customers are skiing the resorts increasing their revenue per visit number.

Gotta love how season pass, traffic and lodging issues are all intertwined. Now let it snow!

[2clue]

Banning vacation rentals may seem great for everyone who lives in the area and work in fields that don't require tourism to fuel it. However for everyone else, including the ski employees that work two jobs. It's bad, this spike of tourism in the local neighborhood fuels the local economy. Banning the Vacation rentals will benefit Vail and Alterra the most of course. They will suddenly have a market advantage over their competitors in the local community due to convenience. If the only place you can rent is in the resort and coincidentally the amenities are all downstairs. You aren't driving the 10-15min to town. Especially not through the traffic that bound to happen as many people budget for these trips won't allow them to stay in the resort. They'll just have to travel to where the hotels are, which is Reno area.

South Lake ban is interesting, it goes in the right direction in the sense that it's maintaining a high volume area for tourism and then maintaining to low volume area for residences who live there. However I do feel bad for all those home owners who bought before the ban and could only maintain the property with rental subsidies. Having dedicated neighborhoods for personal use only is a great thing, but I only agree with it when the conditions of the HOA clearly states from day 1 the vacation rental policy. To have a municipal code thrown at you after you've invested in what you presumed to be a positive asset and making it a negative is just rough from any perspective.

[NakedShorts]

[QUOTE=hercule33;5579056
On a side note, expect companies like Vail and Alterra to support the effort to ban local rentals. Not only do they get to charge more for their on the hill lodging, the higher house rental prices all around mean that wealthier customers are skiing the resorts increasing their revenue per visit number.

[/QUOTE]

Actually #FAIL manages one of the largest VRBO's for vacation rentals at the lake. Just Saying...

[powdork]

South Lake ban is interesting, it goes in the right direction in the sense that it's maintaining a high volume area for tourism and then maintaining to low volume area for residences who live there. However I do feel bad for all those home owners who bought before the ban and could only maintain the property with rental subsidies. Having dedicated neighborhoods for personal use only is a great thing, but I only agree with it when the conditions of the HOA clearly states from day 1 the vacation rental policy. To have a municipal code thrown at you after you've invested in what you presumed to be a positive asset and making it a negative is just rough from any perspective.

I agree and feel bad for the homeowners. But a change needed to be made and there was no way to do it without pain.

[TahoeJ]

Part of the reason we ended up buying in TD instead of Sierra Meadows or Glenshire was the increased likelihood that the latter two neighborhoods might ban STR’s at some point. Which seems reasonable. You have to think of things like that when buying real estate- it’s just part of the deal. I also think more of those houses were converted from long term rentals whereas TD has had a ton of second homeowners and STR’s going back to the late 70’s / early 80’s and beyond when they were being built.

[hercule33]

Actually #FAIL manages one of the largest VRBO's for vacation rentals at the lake. Just Saying...

I doubt that Vail or Alterra will ban all rentals, they will probably do something similar to South Lake. They still want to have a high number of visitors at their resorts, they just want more wealthy ones. As we have seen, many weekends the resorts are at capacity so resorts can’t make any more money by having more visitors. They have to start looking at revenue per visit. In fact, if the crowds and worse get worse the wealthy will take their money outside of Tahoe which would be fine by me.

[LightRanger]

Hah. I've definitely bought a decent amount of Pacific Crest beans. Didn't know Backstrom was behind it. Very cool.

[Tamburello Rouge]

Part of the reason we ended up buying in TD instead of Sierra Meadows or Glenshire was the increased likelihood that the latter two neighborhoods might ban STR’s at some point. Which seems reasonable. You have to think of things like that when buying real estate- it’s just part of the deal. I also think more of those houses were converted from long term rentals whereas TD has had a ton of second homeowners and STR’s going back to the late 70’s / early 80’s and beyond when they were being built.

I have three friends who each have second homes in TD. Two of them are used as STRs and occasional vacay homes. The third is strictly a vacay home. Anyway, there's been rumors that TD may start restricting STRs. I stayed in a STR last weekend in TD (not any of my friends' house, I didn't need anything that big). Could get interesting.

[2clue]

I have three friends who each have second homes in TD. Two of them are used as STRs and occasional vacay homes. The third is strictly a vacay home. Anyway, there's been rumors that TD may start restricting STRs. I stayed in a STR last weekend in TD (not any of my friends' house, I didn't need anything that big). Could get interesting.

Who's leading the charge on this? If the neighborhood has historically been Vacay homes and STRs..it's highly unlikely the charge is being lead by someone who actually lives in the area then. Sounds like someone won a round in the ring and is looking for another fight.

[TahoeJ]

I have three friends who each have second homes in TD. Two of them are used as STRs and occasional vacay homes. The third is strictly a vacay home. Anyway, there's been rumors that TD may start restricting STRs. I stayed in a STR last weekend in TD (not any of my friends' house, I didn't need anything that big). Could get interesting.

TD just put some STR regulations in place, which is a good thing. No way are they going to ban them- that idea never was even truly discussed during this process over the last year. I know this straight from one of the horses’ mouths. Unless you mean implementing a cap after all existing ones are registered - that’s entirely possible at some point where only a certain percentage of the HOA can be listed for STR’s.

[pureshred]

We're still talking about housing? BA is talking of SEA LEVEL snow levels and we're still talking about housing?! When was the last time we had a storm this cold? 10/11? Before that even?
Beyond pumped for next week.

[bobz]

Fuck me, the weekend forecast blew up in the past 12 hours. I checked last night and it was calling for 2-ish feet by Monday morning. Now looks like that might be as much as 5' through Monday night.

Debating on this weekend. I'm wondering if they'll even be able to reasonably dig out the lifts in that kind of storm. And I have a flight I need to catch Monday morning.

Yup, just a day or two ago, Sunday was going to be a post-storm day with lingering showers; now the numbers are up for up through Saturday night, and the snow keeps coming down through Sunday and beyond. Earlier in the week I figured it looked mellow enough that roads will stay open, now I'm not so sure. At least there's a football game or whatever on Sunday, that should help.

[El Chupacabra]

We're still talking about housing? BA is talking of SEA LEVEL snow levels and we're still talking about housing?! When was the last time we had a storm this cold? 10/11? Before that even?
Beyond pumped for next week.

I read that post in AI's voice:

[NorCalNomad]

We're still talking about housing? BA is talking of SEA LEVEL snow levels and we're still talking about housing?! When was the last time we had a storm this cold? 10/11? Before that even?
Beyond pumped for next week.

Where are you seeing that?

[pureshred]

Where are you seeing that?

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

"Snow levels lowering to 4,000 feet Sunday, 3,500 feet Sunday night, 2,500 feet Monday, and possibly down to sea level by the end of Tuesday morning!"

[Microcosm]

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

"Snow levels lowering to 4,000 feet Sunday, 3,500 feet Sunday night, 2,500 feet Monday, and possibly down to sea level by the end of Tuesday morning!"

Anyone got the beta on the sickest lines in Sac? Maybe some sweet turns touring around Folsom Lake?

No way I'm dealing with the shitshow that will be the roads around Tahoe this weekend

[kimchijajonshim]

Yup, just a day or two ago, Sunday was going to be a post-storm day with lingering showers; now the numbers are up for up through Saturday night, and the snow keeps coming down through Sunday and beyond. Earlier in the week I figured it looked mellow enough that roads will stay open, now I'm not so sure. At least there's a football game or whatever on Sunday, that should help.

Yea. I'm going to try to ride this weekend, but am suddenly not feeling Tahoe. 80 will definitely get shut down. If I can find something, I may reroute to Lassen or Shasta.

[TahoeJ]

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

"Snow levels lowering to 4,000 feet Sunday, 3,500 feet Sunday night, 2,500 feet Monday, and possibly down to sea level by the end of Tuesday morning!"

Coldest storm since... last March, until that actually happens. Not that I’m not stoked. Bring on the pow and double negatives!

[gimpy]

The str restrictions for s lake already have an injunction in court and the ban doesn’t even happen till 2021.
Nobody except the homeowners are losing out from str bans. Don’t buy into the “save Tahoe jobs” bullshit rhetoric

Okay........all the Tweeker house cleaners will have less work.......but other then that, the effect is negligible

Busting ass to take next week off. Midweek looks dank af.


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[2_1_3]

To put low snow levels in context, below 500 m occurs less than 2% of the time. Not impossible, but quite infrequent!

Also note that last year we had the highest snow levels observed in April during that damn typhoon.
CSWY = Cool season of water year (Oct-Apr). Multiply the F(x) value by 100 to get % of time.


Being classified as a 'snow watcher' in the KQED article today is almost as good as my ca. 2012 interview with the RGJ where I was quoted as being concerned with "fluff management" while skiing the Cooper Spur LOL:
https://www.kqed.org/science/1936797...ierra-snowpack