Real Estate Crash thread

[Benny Profane]

Well, that's it. I'm ready to give up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/bu...growth.html?hp

This is just become so over the top of what I thought could happen four or five years ago, I just have to accept that real estate will be stuck at this level for years, and never return to a valuation that reflects income and net worth in this country. Just today I read that average income levels in this country just dropped back to 1995 levels. Really. In 1995, I bought a one bedroom co-op in Bronxville, NY, for $65,000. Nice building, great town, three minute walk to the train. Top ten high school. Wife got it, and probably made at least 225,000 on it, either a loan or sale. It's still probably worth about 300,000. Why is it still worth that much? Because money is so damn cheap. Even the wealthy get cheap, government backed low money down mortgages, up to around 700,000. Why the fuck is Fannie/Freddie and the FHA sponsoring 700,000 3.5 down loans for houses? Makes me want to fucking spit.

At the same time, I have to play games to make any kind of money that beats inflation and helps me not touch the principal. So far, I've been able to do that, but, maybe I'm just lucky there. At least it's only a few taps on the computer to run to safety. Meanwhile I'm surrounded by these fucking bankers who raped our economy with no penalty to them at all, and they just drive the price of living to the stratosphere around here. Fucking ridiculous. Ben just announced that, as long as he has the reigns of power, their banks and most of the large Euro banks can never fail, because he has their back. The fucking Porsche salesman around here and in Stuttgart and London must be getting a call every five minutes.

The good side to this situation is that I may very well give up and quit my job and move someplace cheap near a ski hill and never turn on the news again. Problem is, there is no cheap place near a ski hill I've found where I would want to live, yet. That RE market is floated by this ridiculous shit just like the upscale upper middle class neighborhoods that the owners of those second homes live in. They're not hurting at all it seems, when a crappy condo in Summit still goes for 300,000. Meanwhile, millions of all ages can't find a decent job, and really have no hope of one for years. I just don't get it, but, I accept that we will be much like Japan, a fading economy that will maintain a pretty damn good standard of living for years running on Monopoly money, as long as you're lucky enough to have a good source of income and a little money. Eventually, it will sink unto itself, but, probably not in my lifetime.

End of rant.

[powder11]

What, you don't believe in trickle down economics, Benny!? I make a pretty decent living off rich bastahds from Hong-couver, Zoo York and Oilberta who buy shoddy built $500k 2 bd condos and I charge an arm and a leg to renovate them. There's a big river of money out there, quit your bitching and go take your share.

[liv2ski]

Well, that's it. I'm ready to give up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/bu...growth.html?hp

The good side to this situation is that I may very well give up and quit my job and move someplace cheap near a ski hill and never turn on the news again. Problem is, there is no cheap place near a ski hill I've found where I would want to live, yet.

Benny, I guess I am odd, but I have been to a lot of cheap places were I would be happy. Ski hill is 30 minutes away, mountain biking, kayaking in the area. Cool up and coming downtown areas. You need to get out and look around man, it is out there. I will always have our home at the beach, but I plan on renting here and there for 6 months at a time for years once the wife retires in 8 years. Lots of places I want to see and live at down the road.

[Benny Profane]

Benny, I guess I am odd, but I have been to a lot of cheap places were I would be happy. Ski hill is 30 minutes away, mountain biking, kayaking in the area. Cool up and coming downtown areas. You need to get out and look around man, it is out there. I will always have our home at the beach, but I plan on renting here and there for 6 months at a time for years once the wife retires in 8 years. Lots of places I want to see and live at down the road.

Name a few. Seriously. Always open for options. Gotta tell ya, I need a little culture nearby, too.

[powder11]

Name a few. Seriously. Always open for options. Gotta tell ya, I need a little culture nearby, too.

Skiattle

[schuss]

Bend is nice, Northern NH and VT are still pretty cheap when you really get into it, Portland ME has great nightlife, Golden is quite chill. There's a number of decent options.

[4matic]

I need a little culture nearby, too.

Sun Valley? Be more specific when you say culture and how close.

[Hugh Conway]

Bend is nice

Is it cheap again? Seattle's nice, but are there any nice places to live that are still cheap?

[4matic]

Is it cheap again? Seattle's nice, but are there any nice places to live that are still cheap?

Downtown Bend is reasonable. I've been looking there. Too bad the resort downhill skiing sucks but the golf is world class.

[liv2ski]

Name a few. Seriously. Always open for options. Gotta tell ya, I need a little culture nearby, too.

Perhaps that is the difference. I do not need someone elses culture nearby
http://www.epicski.com/t/84915/one-s...t-of-your-life

[schuss]

Is it cheap again? Seattle's nice, but are there any nice places to live that are still cheap?

Compared to NorCal - yes.

[mobygrape]

Seattle? Maybe not nice places cheap in the city ( depending on your idea of cheap...) but some bargains in the surrounding area if you are not concerned with a commute.

[iceman]

Hood River is really nice. You could look up Tonghands for entertainment. And Portland Maine is not that close to skiing but man I love that place.

[schuss]

Hood River is really nice. You could look up Tonghands for entertainment. And Portland Maine is not that close to skiing but man I love that place.

Yeah, all the other stuff (kayaking, food, access to Maine mountains/Whites) is what makes it an awesome place. Not many jobs though.

[powder11]

$300K is the new $65k

[AdironRider]

Well, that's it. I'm ready to give up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/bu...growth.html?hp

This is just become so over the top of what I thought could happen four or five years ago, I just have to accept that real estate will be stuck at this level for years, and never return to a valuation that reflects income and net worth in this country. Just today I read that average income levels in this country just dropped back to 1995 levels. Really. In 1995, I bought a one bedroom co-op in Bronxville, NY, for $65,000. Nice building, great town, three minute walk to the train. Top ten high school. Wife got it, and probably made at least 225,000 on it, either a loan or sale. It's still probably worth about 300,000. Why is it still worth that much? Because money is so damn cheap. Even the wealthy get cheap, government backed low money down mortgages, up to around 700,000. Why the fuck is Fannie/Freddie and the FHA sponsoring 700,000 3.5 down loans for houses? Makes me want to fucking spit.

At the same time, I have to play games to make any kind of money that beats inflation and helps me not touch the principal. So far, I've been able to do that, but, maybe I'm just lucky there. At least it's only a few taps on the computer to run to safety. Meanwhile I'm surrounded by these fucking bankers who raped our economy with no penalty to them at all, and they just drive the price of living to the stratosphere around here. Fucking ridiculous. Ben just announced that, as long as he has the reigns of power, their banks and most of the large Euro banks can never fail, because he has their back. The fucking Porsche salesman around here and in Stuttgart and London must be getting a call every five minutes.

The good side to this situation is that I may very well give up and quit my job and move someplace cheap near a ski hill and never turn on the news again. Problem is, there is no cheap place near a ski hill I've found where I would want to live, yet. That RE market is floated by this ridiculous shit just like the upscale upper middle class neighborhoods that the owners of those second homes live in. They're not hurting at all it seems, when a crappy condo in Summit still goes for 300,000. Meanwhile, millions of all ages can't find a decent job, and really have no hope of one for years. I just don't get it, but, I accept that we will be much like Japan, a fading economy that will maintain a pretty damn good standard of living for years running on Monopoly money, as long as you're lucky enough to have a good source of income and a little money. Eventually, it will sink unto itself, but, probably not in my lifetime.

End of rant.

Im with you on this one.

[Shredhead]

There's a big river of money out there, quit your bitching and go take your share.

No shit, there's all kinds of things you can do! Start a NY style pizza franchise? Fuck Papa John's, that guys a dick!


Dude. you don't want to be in Summit County. Check out Carbondale!

[Benny Profane]

Dude. you don't want to be in Summit County. Check out Carbondale!

Yeah, once you get past Beaver, prices drop dramatically. Eagle is very cheap.

But, I don't want to live in Eagle.

[Benny Profane]

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/f...comment-232936

[liv2ski]

Originally Posted by iceman
Hey Benny, see the NYTimes today? front page, top left? You know you did. How come all is silence when something contrary to your and L2S' doomsday daydreams is in the news?

Hey Ice, I said this to you about 6 months ago and I will say it again. In 12 months, I send you a bottle of 18 year old Highland Park if the 20 city composite index is better than it is today at 140.95. (Actually was 140.93 in May 2011) If not, mail me one.

Looks like Iceman was correct: June 2012 Composite-20 142.21. The last two months saved your ass on that bet son. Well done.

Edit: bet was 12 months, so May 2012. which was 139.99 But whatever. I will call it a draw.
http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_s...x_composite_20

[Benny Profane]

Originally Posted by iceman
Hey Benny, see the NYTimes today? front page, top left? You know you did. How come all is silence when something contrary to your and L2S' doomsday daydreams is in the news?
Hey Ice, I said this to you about 6 months ago and I will say it again. In 12 months, I send you a bottle of 18 year old Highland Park if the 20 city composite index is better than it is today at 140.95. If not, mail me one.

Looks like Iceman was correct: June 2012 Composite-20 142.21. The last two months saved your ass on that bet son. Well done.
So pm me what address to mail you a bottle to.

Sir, my point is, this is far from a normal market. If left to it's own devices, it would be radically different from what it is today. And, you know, what it is today pretty much sucks. In a big way, Ben is agreeing with me and just did the " chay halo too my leetle friend" move by shooting his bazooka. It will work, for a while, but, if we don't get growth soon to mop up all this debt and magic money, we are even more fucked. He knows that he's probably out in'14, so he's protecting his legacy as best as he knows how. Then he can semi retire on the sidelines and comment from there.

Your Case Schiller is no measure of any kind of health right now, and both Case and Schiller would agree (especially Schiller). And don't mock the Doc. He is one of the few who have nailed this thing consistently well for years, and knows we are in uncharted waters of very screwed up debt levels, bizarre valuations, and massive levels of private and public corruption, propaganda, and outright lies. Maybe, maybe, after the election, things will change.

[cramer]

Sir, my point is, this is far from a normal market. If left to it's own devices, it would be radically different from what it is today. And, you know, what it is today pretty much sucks. In a big way, Ben is agreeing with me and just did the " chay halo too my leetle friend" move by shooting his bazooka. It will work, for a while, but, if we don't get growth soon to mop up all this debt and magic money, we are even more fucked. He knows that he's probably out in'14, so he's protecting his legacy as best as he knows how. Then he can semi retire on the sidelines and comment from there.

Your Case Schiller is no measure of any kind of health right now, and both Case and Schiller would agree (especially Schiller). And don't mock the Doc. He is one of the few who have nailed this thing consistently well for years, and knows we are in uncharted waters of very screwed up debt levels, bizarre valuations, and massive levels of private and public corruption, propaganda, and outright lies. Maybe, maybe, after the election, things will change.

Far from a normal market? whats a normal market Benny?

$211,500 $249,800 $167,300 $88,700 $74,400 $57,900 $36,700 thats the median price in CA the last 6 decades. I only see one glitch there, the housing boom. Seems corrected to me. You take out that 249K and put ina 180-190K, seems like normal growth. Just my .02

[liv2ski]

Cramer, are you being purposely dense? 1)Look at all the market intervention over the last 3 years to support RE Values. 2)The FED telling banks they no longer have to show loans 90 days late marked to market on their balance sheet and banks allowing RE to sit for years before foreclosing. 3)FED set to buy $40 BILLION a month in MBS to get rates even lower. There has been unprecedented support of RE values since 2009, at a huuuuge cost and really, imo, it has only delayed the inevitable. I work in mortgage banking, so I love the support, but I still think it is all for not without a solid rebound in hiring (250k a month forever) and wage growth. Sorry, but neither candidate has a plan for either. Obummer drags us down slowly, Mitt will crash and burns us faster. So ya, it doesn't matter. Hey, but have a great day.

[snowsprite]

Things are not good, evidence abounds. And I'm not a curmudgeon for speaking the truth. Shit's BAD out there re: real estate. And despite some tap dancing la-la bullshit, no real signs of it getting better for working stiffs trying to buy/sell with real-life issues and problems nipping at the heels.

Once I get out from home ownership, I can honestly say that I hope to stay out. I'm fully traumatized, and looking forward to the peace and freedom of renting.

Unless it's buying a plot of land and erecting a yurt in some god-forsaken place. That would be nice. (heh heh...I said "erecting")

Sprite

[powder11]

Far from a normal market? whats a normal market Benny?

$211,500 $249,800 $167,300 $88,700 $74,400 $57,900 $36,700 thats the median price in CA the last 6 decades. I only see one glitch there, the housing boom. Seems corrected to me. You take out that 249K and put ina 180-190K, seems like normal growth. Just my .02

It is a normal market in every sense of the word. The only people who see it as totally fucked up are the ones who got burned in the last cycle and the morons on the sidelines who wish the market had tanked even more than it did in hopes they could've got in at the basement level price. Too bad, so sad and the world keeps on turning.