Is the stock market going to tank?

[Moeghoul]

I trade my own money. I'm not in the biz, licensed, or a pro. Just a retail weenie gathering crumbs here and there.

[4matic]

I work in the business providing r/t news and information to institutions and investors. I used to pitch risky investments on an FNN spot for a brokerage house.

No stomach for trading. AND, trading, imo, is a full time job.

[retirwntm]

cool. be careful with those leveraged etf's. i'm sure you've done the research, but the time decay portion of the swaps and the rebalance of the portfolio can really skew long term performance from expectations.

[Benny Profane]

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009...ll-street.html

can't believe benny hasn't posted this one yet.

Thank you. I now have a new resource of "grassy knoll stuff". Which is strange, because, today, when all our computers went down at work, a 9-11 conspiracy theory believer walked up to me at work and started to engage me on the subject, thinking, I guess, I would be open to his theories. It was disturbing, and didn't end well, politically speaking, on my part, because he pushed a sensitive button. I respect the dead. Such is life.

And, of all things, I heard the market went up today because Bernanke sat there and told Washington he was clean. So, the traders said, cool, whatever, he's our man, and he's clean. Buy. weird.

[4matic]

What's up with this:
]

The Nikkei spiked at the same time. Nikkei has been the leader on this leg of the rally. Not sure what the news was but that was the cause for a spike inthe SP00 futs.

[ICEHOCEY77]

What's up with this:

just looking at the chart you posted, looks like price was having a helluva time breaking 900, then once it breaks through we attempt to have a pullback to confirm breakout, doesn't get back to 900, but bounce off 901 and is off to the races...




just my 2 cents.

[Downbound Train]

Super long thread, can't read it. Much discussion on Gold? Tell me to fuck off if needed but I'm thinking of rolling over a Roth into Perth Gold. 10% of total portfolio.Good idea?

[ICEHOCEY77]

Super long thread, can't read it. Much discussion on Gold? Tell me to fuck off if needed but I'm thinking of rolling over a Roth into Perth Gold. 10% of total portfolio.Good idea?

probably gonna drop in the short term. bearish pinbar off the 950 major S/R area. next support area is around 932-930.

[Brock Landers]

Super long thread, can't read it. Much discussion on Gold? Tell me to fuck off if needed but I'm thinking of rolling over a Roth into Perth Gold. 10% of total portfolio.Good idea?

Read the thread,gold is 3/4 of it

[khakis]

why would building cash balances be a good idea in this scenario, after the "trillions of dollars printed..." There's gotta be a better place to put your savings (not just gold)

[Brock Landers]

trillions havent been printed yet....but eventually the govt is going to have to monetize- itll take a while to monetize tens of trillions

TIPS is sometimes a good hedge against inflation but with all the action on govt securities themselves, there are too many questions if its worth it going forward.

Miners themselves, instead of gold, would work. Commodity baskets provide a hedge and a little diversification (not just banking on gold). Savings accounts or short term CDs have variable rates, investing in bank loans nulls interest rate risk

[4matic]

Miners themselves, instead of gold, would work. Commodity baskets provide a hedge and a little diversification (not just banking on gold). Savings accounts or short term CDs have variable rates, investing in bank loans nulls interest rate risk

If you truly believe in economic apocolypse then mining stocks are just more worthless paper. "Storing safely" either means cash in a safe deposit, phyiscal gold (which you can't store in a box), or having a home based depository.

[khakis]

Cool thanks. Now has anybody found better than 2.3% on long-term CDs? Is there a better thread for that?

[Brock Landers]

If you truly believe in economic apocolypse then mining stocks are just more worthless paper. "Storing safely" either means cash in a safe deposit, phyiscal gold (which you can't store in a box), or having a home based depository.

Im not an apocalypse person...things are defintley fucked, but theyve been fucked before.

I think the govt has to get its shit together though and stop just tossing all of 2020's money at 2009's problem. At some point the piper needs to be paid. I think instead of (or in addition to) all the regulations thrown at CC companies, there should be something to slow down consumer borrowing (shitty time to do that, obviously) in addition to slowing down at the government level.

[4matic]

there should be something to slow down consumer borrowing (shitty time to do that, obviously) in addition to slowing down at the government level.

The savings rate at 7% as of last week is a 15 year high. Up from 0% a couple years ago. IMO a national consumption tax might work.

[Downbound Train]

If you truly believe in economic apocolypse then mining stocks are just more worthless paper. "Storing safely" either means cash in a safe deposit, phyiscal gold (which you can't store in a box), or having a home based depository.

You can't store physical gold in a box?

[4matic]

You can't store physical gold in a box?

I'd heard that but I don't think it's true. There are limits.

[Benny Profane]

The savings rate at 7% as of last week is a 15 year high. Up from 0% a couple years ago. IMO a national consumption tax might work.

Who measures this "savings rate"? How is it measured? It has to be the worst measure of money flow out with us that anybody came up with. Do you actually think that the 63% of Americans who are homeowners have suddenly stopped paying off their debts (incurred by sucking equity out of said homes), and are "saving" their income? With nearly 10% unemployment? And "savings" already brutally hit with a 35% drop in equities, where many had their retirement "savings"? The way I see it, they just aren't spending any money, and, somehow, that's perversely being labeled as thrift. And, it has to be severely skewed by the upper 10% of earners, who, thank you, supply side freaks, are floating above right now. Well, most of them. Wish I was rich.

[Brock Landers]

Who measures this "savings rate"? How is it measured? It has to be the worst measure of money flow out with us that anybody came up with. Do you actually think that the 63% of Americans who are homeowners have suddenly stopped paying off their debts (incurred by sucking equity out of said homes), and are "saving" their income? With nearly 10% unemployment? And "savings" already brutally hit with a 35% drop in equities, where many had their retirement "savings"? The way I see it, they just aren't spending any money, and, somehow, that's perversely being labeled as thrift. And, it has to be severely skewed by the upper 10% of earners, who, thank you, supply side freaks, are floating above right now. Well, most of them. Wish I was rich.

Conspiracy! Conspiracy! The sky is falling! Tinfoil!

Everything isnt a conspiracy against you...youre already on the internet, youre halfway there to seeing who measures the savings rate

I can certainly see savings at 7%...people with small CC debt paid it off and are now incrementally saving. Especially anyone with Capital One and their hiking of rates wanted to pay it off and get out. People with huge debts that havent paid it off are still in debt- not worsening the data at all. Certainly many of the people I know have paid down debt and started saving money (not much but multiplied a couple hundred million times, thats quite a bit)

[Cravenmorehead]

The savings rate at 7% as of last week is a 15 year high. Up from 0% a couple years ago. IMO a national consumption tax might work.

Yuppers.......you buy the big toys......you pay the big tax. No exceptions.
Combine it with a progressive wealth tax and voila......simple fair tax system.

[Benny Profane]

Tinfoil!

Ok, genius, tell me how it's measured. It's a number that just spills out of pundits lips lately, but, where does it come from? The same place Madoff made 15% a year? Would you just accept that without a little sideways glance and questioning? Really, what are these "savings"?
It's kind of amazing how people trust the bullshit sometime. The National Board of Realtors comes out with an encouraging sales report if a bunch of garbage foreclosures move out of an auction in SoCal and Florida. The same people that said a year or two ago that prices would never go down. And, yet, it sets in, and you begin to hear people say that real estate has found a bottom, so, we'll be back to bubble world next month. jezuz.

[Moeghoul]

Short trading week, lite volume and the headlines are trickling in for the bears.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...tory?track=rss

http://www.bankinfosecurity.com/arti...hp?art_id=1583

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSI...55P51I20090626

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSI...40674320090629


Downward acceleration of biz cycle.

[Moeghoul]

Dollar is set to tank, as the wife and I will be traveling for a few weeks.
Your welcome.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ahO2orD9RszQ

This is largely ignored and poo pooed by the Kudlow-King dollar advocates. It's significant. And its a trend that is gaining momentum.

[Cravenmorehead]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ahO2orD9RszQ

This is largely ignored and poo pooed by the Kudlow-King dollar advocates. It's significant. And its a trend that is gaining momentum.

That is big news. Consumer confidence dropped and volume picked up today. I figure after the holidays downside volume will accelerate.
Then maybe one more push up.......then look out septemberish......roll over to new lows when the market figures out noboby can buy new phones with no job. The high flying techs will make for fine shorting ops.

[ICEHOCEY77]

Oil is going to start dropping in the next month. 62 is the next real S/R with 55 being a long term target.