Real Estate Crash thread

[zion zig zag]

(city gondola is dead in the water though).

I wouldn't call it just yet, the election just happened and what I know about this Mayor is that he's a bulldog once he gets an idea.

I need to get in on this rental action but it's a hard decision for me, I need to break away from my conventional wisdom. I can do some of the work myself and I'm learning more all of the time (obviously I don't put out a polished project like MD). J, I need to come check out some of your new places.

[grapedrink]

grapedrink & enlosandes, the location is downtown Ogden, Utah. Do a search online on any public MLS. There are over 160 homes for sale under 100K right now. Another main reason for the hold strategy is the all the positives that are happening with Ogden. It's quickly becoming a ski industry town.

i would say the 150% positive cash flow return is reason enough for the hold the rest is just gravy. i'm just amazed that you can buy a 3 bed, 2 bath house on actual land near a paved road for $55,000 anywhere in north america.

[RootSkier]

meatdrink, way to kill it. I do remodels with a similar aesthetic, but the problem is that you can't touch anything that's not about to fall down for under $175K here and more like $200 in Missoula. Impossible to cash flow anything unless you are putting down $100K.

What's your wall finish, is that some sort of plaster?

[meatdrink9]

flyk, give me a shout this week and I'd be happy to show them to you. The one by MOE's house is keyboxed so you could check it out anytime you want. I'll be skiing mon-wed for sure, but stopping by houses for a few hours of work after.

grapedrink, I've attached a screengrab of the current Ogden MLS so you can see an example of what's out there. Ogden is a deal compared to the rest of the country and I'm buying the properties that are deals for Ogden. I watch the MLS like a hawk (multiple searches every single day).

Rootskier, it's just a light hand troweled mud finish. Then you use a combination of paint and water and paint directly onto the mud (no primer). It really turns out nice.

Here's a quick frame from the MLS:

[enlosandes]

Thanks for being so candid MeatDrink. Rich Dad would be proud of your doings. One more question. Do you property manage these or are do you have someone doing it for you?

[meatdrink9]

Thanks for being so candid MeatDrink. Rich Dad would be proud of your doings. One more question. Do you property manage these or are do you have someone doing it for you?

I currently manage them myself. My phone does ring more than I'd like when I'm renting a property. There will definitely come a time when I let someone else handle that aspect of the job (collecting rents, repairs, etc...). I don't put signs in yards or advertise in the NWSP. Everything is done through craigslist or other local online classifieds. I usually end up with great renters and being able to show pics online makes my properties move pretty quick. There's no shortage of "for rent" signs in yards and windows around town.

[rideit]

Lawsuit filed against developer
Plaintiffs say they were duped by Teton Springs officials

By PAUL MENSER

Twenty-one people who bought land at the development near Victor want out of their contracts.

Twenty-one people from five states have filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court claiming they were rooked into investing in the Teton Springs development outside Victor.

Seven couples and seven individuals, most of them from California, say the developer, Teton Springs Golf and Casting Club; its agent, Utah-based Nu Way Partners; and its mortgage broker, Eagle River Mortgage Co, violated federal law and engaged in common-law fraud when they sold the plaintiffs lots and built homes in the Mountain Meadows project that turned out to be way less profitable than what they'd been promised.

The suit, filed Monday, seeks to have the plaintiffs' contracts rescinded or revoked. It also asks for punitive damages to be paid.

J.T. Bramlette, founder of Nu Way Partners, said Wednesday he was unaware of the lawsuit and declined to comment until he'd consulted with legal counsel. Efforts to reach the plaintiffs' attorney, William H. Thomas of the Boise firm of Huntley Park, were unsuccessful.

Much of the 192-page complaint focuses on the behavior of Nu Way, which bought lots in the Mountain Meadows section of Teton Springs and sold them to real estate investment club members.

The company bills itself as "an innovative real estate opportunity and development firm that enables both seasoned members and ambitious entrepreneurs the opportunity to gain financial independence by investing in premium-quality properties in the most sought-after resort locations in the United States."

According to the current issue of Personal Real Estate Investor, the company bought 110 lots in Mountain Meadows at about $140,000 a piece "versus the projected market rate of $250,000." This strategy "amounted to much-needed capital for the developer and then yielded the lowest price point for NuWay members in a desirable second-home resort community," the article said.

The people filing the lawsuit allege that Nu Way agents:

Represented the house/lot parcels as "no risk" investments.

Misrepresented the equity the investors would have once the homes were built.

Told them they'd have no difficulty selling the properties.

Misrepresented the demand for properties in the subdivision.

Told them they could quickly "flip" their properties and make hundreds of thousands of dollars

Told them the developer would buy back the properties.

Told them the possible risks and profits had been thoroughly researched.

Told them Nu Way had extensive and unique real estate investment experience that eliminated the need for the plaintiffs and other investors to undertake their own due diligence.

Pressured the company Rivers Edge to overstate the properties' value in appraisals.

Two plaintiffs, Alan and Christine Wilson of Carlsbad, Calif., said they learned about Mountain Meadows at an April 2006 real estate investors seminar called "Massive Passive Cash." After signing a contract the following month, the Wilsons allege, they learned in October 2006 that the monthly income figure on a retyped loan application had been changed from $12,500 to $35,000.

Another party in the lawsuit, Denise Kamenzind of Victor, alleges that in July 2006 she called an agent for Eagle River Mortgage to express concern about the difference in monthly income she stated on the loan application and the monthly income figure the company's agent had submitted to the lending company, First Horizon. According to the complaint, the agent told her, "$28,000 a month is your current potential future income. I wouldn't worry about it. I've never seen it become a problem."

The Teton Springs development dates back to 2001. Most of the homes have been built on half-acre to three-quarter-acre lots, and property owners have had the flexibility to bring their own builders in.

With Mountain Meadows, a more high-density project, the deal was for Nu Way to be the sole agent and Headwaters to be the builder.

Teton Valley, Idaho, has gotten press from such media as USA Today and CNBC as "the quiet side of the Tetons," where property was relatively cheap in comparison to Jackson Hole, on the other side of Teton Pass.

Staff writer Paul Menser can be reached at 542-6752.

[yonskion]

www.ml-implode.com this is the complete written history of the Real Estate crash of 07'.
I have been reading this Blog daily since last March when there were only 23 Wholesale Lender's that had gone under.

[rideit]

The Teton Springs thing isn't a market crash so much as a self induced implosion.

Hubris, methinks.

[Benny Profane]

same thing, rideit, same thing.

So, bottom line, how much are those houses going for today in Teton Springs.

[rideit]

I haven't really seen any price reductions, or any 'fire sale' activity.

Yet.

(or much activity at all)

[Tye 1on]

Wasn't there two homes last fall, for like 600k, appraised or valued at 1.5mil? Or something like that? Not sure how much the verbal 'misrepresentations' will matter, but fudging the numbers on the credit apps sure might, ya think?

sure do enjoy playing that golf course...

[Benny Profane]

I haven't really seen any price reductions, or any 'fire sale' activity.

Yet.

(or much activity at all)

?????

c'mon, what are these people doing litigating about, then? It's gotta be bad if they all got together and hired a lawyer. Not one home has been sold in the past few months?

[rideit]

I'll check.

[Toadman]

?????

c'mon, what are these people doing litigating about, then? It's gotta be bad if they all got together and hired a lawyer. Not one home has been sold in the past few months?

Maybe that's the problem. Nothing sold. Could be that whole development is underwater for the speculators, so to speak.

[Benny Profane]

How much of that place is built? How many homes are there right now? Is all the "community" stuff done? You know, "clubhouse", pool, blah, blah. I read an article about a similar "community" (heh), that has maybe half the homes built, and most of the common stuff is lumber stacked over concrete. And those people dropped like 700000 for that.

[rideit]

There is actually a hell of a lot done. But it's still a spec ghostown.
there are at least 70 individual trophy homes totally done, probably 20 under construction in some phase or another, as well as the hotel (under const.), pool, clubhouse, golf course, fractional ownership units, etc.
My guess is that 75% of the 'community' stuff is totally done.

I don't think there is threat of it 'going under', but it definitely is taking a kick in the teeth. Hopefully that translates into other 1/2 baked projects simply NOT getting going at all. That would be peachy.

[Benny Profane]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/bu...unmore.html?hp



"Delbert Rapini, a longtime Sacramento contractor who said he was an admirer of George Dunmore, said, “Sid had it made, but he acted like an idiot” by extending himself too far."

[Benny Profane]

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financ...alk_surowiecki



"Homeownership also impedes the economy’s readjustment by tying people down. From a social point of view, it’s beneficial that homeownership encourages commitment to a given town or city. But, from an economic point of view, it’s good for people to be able to leave places where there’s less work and move to places where there’s more. Homeowners are much less likely to move than renters, especially during a downturn, when they aren’t willing (or can’t afford) to sell at market prices. As a result, they often stay in towns even after the jobs leave. That may be why a study of several major developed economies between 1960 and 1996, by the British economist Andrew Oswald, found a strong relationship between increases in homeownership and increases in the unemployment rate; a ten-per-cent increase in homeownership correlated with a two-per-cent increase in unemployment."

[Nobody Famous]

I'm surprised no comments on the recent fed actions to bail out the holders of bad debt, .... oops, I meant to say bail out the economy.

From what I read, the holders of packaged, mortgage-backed bonds (which can't be sold 'cause no one is willing to buy them) can now trade these for good ol' US Guv-mint Treasuries (which of course everyone in interested in buying and selling). In this case, 'trade' means swap out, in which case the entity backing the full faith and credit of the Treasury bonds is in effect doing the same for the packaged mortgage bonds. I think I'm missing something in reading this in layman's terms, but isn't the Fed giving something of value to holders of something of practically no value, to the tune of 200 Billion dollars?

Comments?

[Stu Gotz]

Good overview of the fed's actions.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...031103060.html

[Toadman]

$200 billion is chump change for a much larger problem. Besides too little too late applies in this case. All this money being pumped into an all ready inflation prone economy is not a good thing.

[timvwcom]

How 'bout them apples?

Freddie Mac sees home prices falling further

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Already under pressure, U.S. home prices have much further to fall, the chief executive of major mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac said Wednesday.
Speaking to analysts on a conference call, CEO Richard Syron estimated that housing prices, from peak to trough, have dropped only a third as far as he thinks they're going to. The McLean, Va.-based company's expecting a peak-to-trough decline of 15% in all.

...

[liv2ski]

^^^ I saw those comments from Freddie Mac.
I don't get the math when they expect prices to fall 15% in total and have about 50% more to go and prices in my neck of the woods are already down 20%
Does that mean CA will be down about 30% at the end of this in his opinion?
If yes, then maybe I can buy a 2nd home at Mammoth someday

[rideit]

And in other news, FannieMae and Freddie just increased their limits here:

TETON COUNTY WYOMING / IDAHO -- $693,750.00



LINCOLN COUNTY, WYOMING -- $417,000 (No Change)



Stand by, Rate Sheet is on the way....