I think the libs have media-induced amnesia

**Jer** · 10-31-2007, 07:52 PM

Basically gullible people vote for "gullible" people.

If my boss tells me it feels good to shoot yourself in the leg with a nailer, I'm gonna question his idea of fun.

Waitaminute...I'm my boss. oknevermind

**iceman** · 10-31-2007, 07:57 PM

What's that, Jer? I can't hear you, bitch.

**Dexter Rutecki** · 10-31-2007, 08:12 PM

The only thing that doesn't make sense is why Hillary doesn't less equivocally say that her vote for the war was a mistake. Of course her rationale is technically correct, that she was only authorizing the president to pursue all options in order to shut down Hussein, but in retrospect the effect of this was an obvious mistake. The other candidates who didn't vote for it, or have renounced the vote, are right to try to take advantage of that.

But faulting people for rethinking decisions now that more facts are available is idiotic--but being idiotic never stood in the way of W, nor the nearly half of the voting population that voted for him.

**Jer** · 10-31-2007, 08:14 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

What's that, Jer? I can't hear you, bitch.

This from the same guy who once posted multiple consecutive posts in some thread and then sat at his computer all day hitting refresh waiting for me to respond to one of his butt-hurt posts.

Don't worry, bud, any day now its gonna be ski time and your little sandbox will be rid of me for a while.

hint - try the square hole, you rebel you.

13 · 10-31-2007, 08:27 PM

i love how jer assumes we're all liberals on tgr, especially after this post by maurice ballstein.

truly mind-boggling.

jer, step away from the computer for a day and get outside, will ya?

**MeatPuppet** · 10-31-2007, 09:47 PM

Originally Posted by Dexter Rutecki

The only thing that doesn't make sense is why Hillary doesn't less equivocally say that her vote for the war was a mistake.

Because she know how she fights her opponents and she won't do anything that opens herself up to a criticism that she would level against her opponent, if given the chance.

The stupified American public is too dense to recognize the pitfalls of a strong outcome bias; that is, judging the correctness of a decision by the outcome of that decision, rather by the soundness of the decision, based on the information available, at the time the decision was made.

She(and many many other politicians) exploit this cognitive weakness in the American public and use it to their advantage. So she won't do anything that might open her to this kind of criticism.

but in retrospect the effect of this was an obvious mistake.

^^^Outcome Bias, on display^^^

Any decision involving a system containing a random element cannot be judged based on the outcome alone. Because the random element is not controllable and can lead you to mistakenly think that a good decision was, in fact, bad because the outcome was undesirable. It can also lead you to falsely believe that a bad decision was good because it resulted in a good outcome. This bias leads to incompetence in future decision making.

Clinton exploits this when it benefits her and conveniently ignores it when it doesn't(like now). Politicians are the slimiest, most disingenuous sons of bitches this world has ever seen. Fuck!

**Sir Jongalot** · 10-31-2007, 09:59 PM

Well at least the video was from an unbiased source.

**Dexter Rutecki** · 11-01-2007, 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by MeatPuppet

^^^Outcome Bias, on display^^^

Umm, no. Not unless you're claiming the war was not a mistake, which for all I know you might be. Notice I said the "effect" was a mistake, which according to everyone except for W and his dog, it was.

Any decision involving a system containing a random element cannot be judged based on the outcome alone. Because the random element is not controllable and can lead you to mistakenly think that a good decision was, in fact, bad because the outcome was undesirable. It can also lead you to falsely believe that a bad decision was good because it resulted in a good outcome. This bias leads to incompetence in future decision making.

Which is exactly why I was careful to say the effect was a mistake--the decision was defensible, based on the information available at the time. The effect is a different story.

**MeatPuppet** · 11-01-2007, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by Dexter Rutecki

The only thing that doesn't make sense is why Hillary doesn't less equivocally say that her vote for the war was a mistake.

Originally Posted by Dexter Rutecki

Which is exactly why I was careful to say the effect was a mistake--the decision was defensible, based on the information available at the time.

An effect cannot be a mistake.

The decision might(did) have unintended consequences, many of them negative. But if the decision was defensible at the time, it wasn't a mistake, regardless of the outcome.

**Dexter Rutecki** · 11-01-2007, 11:20 AM

The decision was a mistake whether it was correct or not--the outcome is what determines whether it was a mistake. It can be the correct decision at the time, but still a mistake, such as in Hillary's case, and she should state that. I think that is almost the definition of a mistake, in fact.

**Duffman** · 11-01-2007, 11:28 AM

Meat actually hit an important point here, basically the foundation for most problems with us "Stupid Americans" today. Its not that everybody is really dumb (although some are of course,) but rather that people have a huge outcome bias in everything that goes on in the world. And this is exactly what sleazeball political attack ads exploit. I'm sure a lot of people here play poker here so here is a very simply example... if you get raised all in with 72 in your hand and call a guy who turns out to have AA, just because you hit 772 on the flop doesn't make your previous decision a good one. It was still fing dumb whether you won or not. The outcome does not turn your stupidity into intelligence. BTW, this goes on in a lot more than just politics. One reason medical malpractice is so bad here is that a jury of average people equates a bad outcome with a bad decision or bad surgical technique, even if there is absolutely no basis for that connection to be made.

**Art Shirk** · 11-01-2007, 11:50 AM

Originally Posted by Duffman

Meat actually hit an important point here, basically the foundation for most problems with us "Stupid Americans" today. Its not that everybody is really dumb (although some are of course,) but rather that people have a huge outcome bias in everything that goes on in the world. And this is exactly what sleazeball political attack ads exploit. I'm sure a lot of people here play poker here so here is a very simply example... if you get raised all in with 72 in your hand and call a guy who turns out to have AA, just because you hit 772 on the flop doesn't make your previous decision a good one. It was still fing dumb whether you won or not. The outcome does not turn your stupidity into intelligence. BTW, this goes on in a lot more than just politics. One reason medical malpractice is so bad here is that a jury of average people equates a bad outcome with a bad decision or bad surgical technique, even if there is absolutely no basis for that connection to be made.

Exactly. I was actually going to advance nearly the exact same analogy. I am reminded of it every time I play poker with stupid people. Being told that I made a mistake, or a bad bet, after calling someone with the informed position that I have a 51% advantage (also depending upon pot odds) but still losing on the river. Bet = not bad, outcome = not good. I can certainly say that had I known the outcome, I would have not stayed in the pot, but I made a good decision. Hillary could give that angle a go.

**Jer** · 11-01-2007, 08:44 PM

Originally Posted by 13

i love how jer assumes we're all liberals on tgr

????????????????????

I don't think everyone here at TGR are liberals. There are 12 - 15 librodouches who are very vocal about thier librodouchiness. How many memebers are there here? I would guess the librodouche population of TGR is something like .6%. That a long fuckin' way from a majority.

**iceman** · 11-01-2007, 08:53 PM

this message is hidden because Jer is on your ignore list.

so fucking good.

**Jer** · 11-01-2007, 09:15 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

this message is hidden because Jer is on your ignore list.

so fucking good.

Wow - it took you a whole 9 minute to respond to my post?? You're really slipping..

**Dexter Rutecki** · 11-01-2007, 09:17 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

this message is hidden because Jer is on your ignore list.

so fucking good.

It's working out for me, too, but I think he's following Brett's example. Whatever, personally I don't speak to people who can't hear me, but different strokes...

**MeatPuppet** · 11-01-2007, 09:21 PM

Originally Posted by Dexter Rutecki

--the outcome is what determines whether it was a mistake.

Umm, yeah. That's outcome bias. You're fucked. No wonder you think the American dream is a myth.

It can be the correct decision at the time, but still a mistake, such as in Hillary's case, and she should state that. I think that is almost the definition of a mistake, in fact.

I forgot, you are using the Dexter Rutecki Super Special Political Dictionary. It's kind of like "New Math", only with words.

"A ‘mistake' is an error caused by a fault: the fault being misjudgment, carelessness, or forgetfulness." -Wiki

So, how can her decision be both defensible and a misjudgment, carelessness, or forgetfulness? How does that work?

**iceman** · 11-01-2007, 09:24 PM

Because the input was a fucking lie, you piece of shit.

We're taught to respect our President but the President FUCKING LIED. Her patriotism swayed her vote, and then the truth became clear later.

How fucking stupid are you?

**Jer** · 11-01-2007, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by Dexter Rutecki

Whatever, personally I don't speak to people who can't hear me, but different strokes...

But that doesn't stop them from talking to you, does it? Y'know - all the voices - laughing at you - mocking you - always criticising - telling you to do bad things...

**iceman** · 11-01-2007, 09:29 PM

Still not hearing you, Jer, but I'll throw you a "fuck off you fucking piece of shit" if it helps your self-esteem.

**Jer** · 11-01-2007, 09:31 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Because the input was a fucking lie, you piece of shit.

We're taught to respect our President but the President FUCKING LIED. Her patriotism swayed her vote, and then the truth became clear later.

How fucking stupid are you?

Wow - you're really worked up, aren't you?

Perhaps meatpuppet is stupid, but at least he hasn't reached the pinnacle of self-delusion that you call home. I mean, Hillary could kill and eat a three year old child on live TV and you'd somehow spin it to show her in a positive, thoughtful light.

Oh wait - you have me on "ignore". Nevermind..

**Jer** · 11-01-2007, 09:32 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Still not hearing you, Jer, but I'll throw you a "fuck off you fucking piece of shit" if it helps your self-esteem.

Ummmm.... actually, I was talking to Dex.

But if it make you feel important to think I was talking to you, that's cool.

**iceman** · 11-01-2007, 09:36 PM

I'm singing in the rain,
Just singing in the rain,
What a glorious feeling
I'm happy again...

Rooster · 11-01-2007, 09:36 PM

Hey Jer, do you ever make an original post of what you believe in, or do you just call other people out on their beliefs and "librodouchiness." What a mouth full of cum it takes to utter that gay ass term. Anyway, continue with your little homo game of flame sparring the libro's, too bad you aren't capable of making it more humorous, but you suck. Balz.

**Dexter Rutecki** · 11-01-2007, 09:37 PM

Originally Posted by MeatPuppet

Umm, yeah. That's outcome bias. You're fucked. No wonder you think the American dream is a myth.

Stop choking on the terminology you use and learn to read. And quit the non-sequiters, if possible.

"A ‘mistake' is an error caused by a fault: the fault being misjudgment, carelessness, or forgetfulness." -Wiki

So, how can her decision be both defensible and a misjudgment, carelessness, or forgetfulness? How does that work?

Dense-boy, the outcome was a mistake, the decision was defensible based on what she knew. As you already pointed out and seem to understand (until that very confusing word 'mistake' is used to indicate an error), a bad outcome can result from a good decision. How hard is this for you to understand? I know you're trapped in your own ideology, but don't try to warp logic for your own ends.