Montana streamflow/snowpack update

[FreakofSnow]

From http://www.mt.nrcs.usda.gov/news/rel...rchsnow04.html

News Release:
February Snowfall Below Average
March 3, 2004

For More Information:
Roy Kaiser, (406) 587-6991
Tasha Gibby, (406) 587-6971


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Bozeman-Overall, February did not add significant snowfall to mountain snowpack levels. This was reflected in the fact that percent of average snowpack in most basins across Montana on March 1 was less than that on February 1. The change in percent of average snowpack was not due to snowmelt but from lack of snowfall during the month. USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL sites reported that February precipitation west of the Continental Divide was well below average and east of the divide was below average.

By March 1 there are normally about four to six weeks remaining in the annual snowfall season. State-wide, mountain snow water content was 94 percent of average and 118 percent of last year. West of the Continental Divide, snowpack was 93 percent of average and 126 percent of last year and east of the Continental Divide, snowpack was 93 percent of average and 111 percent of last year.

Snowpack Levels River Basin % of Average % of Last Year February % Change
Columbia 93 126 -7
--Kootenai, Montana 96 138 -5
--Flathead, Montana 91 131 -8
--Flathead, Canada 99 163 +4
--Upper Clark Fork 92 109 -8
--Bitterroot 93 107 -11
--Lower Clark Fork 97 146 -8
Missouri 97 119 -6
--Missouri Headwaters 96 112 -4
----Jefferson 93 102 +3
----Madison 104 138 -3
----Gallatin 94 110 -2
--Missouri Mainstem 99 132 -9
----Headwaters Mainstem 90 100 -5
----Smith-Judith-Musselshell 106 113 -3
----Sun-Teton-Marias 82 149 -15
----Milk 168 245 +12
------Bearpaw Mountains 164 244 -5
------Cypress Hills, Canada 165 247 +15
St. Mary 88 127 -4
St. Mary & Milk 112 148 -4
Yellowstone 87 97 +2
--Upper Yellowstone 85 92 -3
--Lower Yellowstone 87 99 +5
----Wind 81 99 +2
----Shoshone 74 85 -7
----Bighorn 84 96 0
----Tongue 95 102 +17
----Powder 101 123 +10

April through July streamflows across Montana are forecast to average 77 to 91 percent of normal. West of the Continental Divide, streamflows are forecast to average 89 to 100 percent of normal and east of the Continental Divide, streamflows are forecast to average 76 to 91 percent of normal.

Streams are expected to have higher flows than last year, but are expected to remain near to below average. Even though streamflows are expected to be better than last year, shortages are still likely to occur in late summer, depending upon spring and summer rain.

Below are averaged streamflow forecasts, by river basin, for the period April 1 through July 31. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL SPRING CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE (70% or less) OR ABOVE AVERAGE (110% or more) SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAIN. Specific forecast probabilities are available in each individual River Basin Report.

Streamflow Forecasts River Basin April-July This Year % of Average April-July Last Year % of Average
Columbia 89 to 100 57 to 66
--Kootenai 93 to 102 55 to 64
--Flathead 86 to 94 53 to 59
--Upper Clark Fork 90 to 106 59 to 71
--Bitterroot 92 to 102 71 to 80
--Lower Clark Fork 88 to 98 53 to 60
Missouri 75 to 92 40 to 52
--Jefferson 75 to 95 41 to 56
--Madison 96 to 104 60 to 68
--Gallatin 84 to 94 59 to 70
--Missouri Mainstem 83 to 98 41 to 54
--Smith-Judith-Musselshell 86 to 103 36 to 46
--Sun-Teton-Marias 66 to 85 33 to 47
--Milk 42 to 58 38 to 45
St. Mary 82 to 89 60 to 67
Yellowstone 79 to 91 55 to 65
--Upper Yellowstone 85 to 95 66 to 76
--Lower Yellowstone 72 to 86 40 to 50

NOTE: The APRIL-JULY LAST YEAR % OF AVERAGE column above is what was forecast last year, not what actually occurred.

[Urbankayaker]

I see you live in Bozeman... what's your favorite river in the Bozeman area?

[FreakofSnow]

Urban - The Gallatin is the closest to Bozeman, about 30 minutes to the put-in

Here's the latest word on the snowpack, she looks really, really bad right now. We need some fatty wet snows.

http://www.mt.nrcs.usda.gov/news/rel...rilsnow04.html

News Release: High Temperatures Cause Snowpack to Melt at Record Rates
April 5, 2004

For More Information:
Roy Kaiser, 406-587-6991
Tasha Gibby, 406-587-6971


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Bozeman-- During March, for the second month in a row, mountain precipitation was severely below average according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). Snowpack values decreased by an average of 17 percent in the last month due to dismal March snowfall and very warm temperatures.

There have been record high March snowmelt rates and temperatures recorded at the 124 SNOTEL sites in Montana and northern Wyoming. “These record high temperatures, which haven’t even dropped below freezing at night, cause the mountain snowpack to melt continuously,” said Roy Kaiser, NRCS water supply specialist. “If the unusually warm weather continues, the snowpack will melt much earlier and could cause streamflows to reach critically low flows much earlier than last year. Much of the snowmelt that has happened so far has gone into the soil and has not occurred as runoff,” said Kaiser.

As of April 1, 2004, mountain snow water content values statewide were 78 percent of average and 83 percent of last year. West of the Continental Divide, snowpack was 80 percent of average and 87 percent of last year. East of the Divide, snowpack was 75 percent of average and 77 percent of last year.

Snowpack Levels River Basin % of Average % of Last Year March % Change
Columbia 80 87 -13
--Kootenai, Montana 84 99 -12
--Flathead, Montana 79 91 -12
--Upper Clark Fork 77 74 -15
--Bitterroot 82 74 -11
--Lower Clark Fork 83 98 -14
Missouri 79 86 -18
--Missouri Headwaters 79 85 -17
----Jefferson 77 78 -16
----Madison 86 108 -17
----Gallatin 79 87 -15
--Missouri Mainstem 79 87 -20
----Headwaters Mainstem 76 75 -14
----Smith-Judith-Musselshell 86 88 -20
----Sun-Teton-Marias 73 89 -9
----Milk (Bearpaw Mtns.) 73 208 -95
St. Mary 71 81 -17
St. Mary & Milk 72 90 -41
Yellowstone 69 66 -19
--Upper Yellowstone 68 66 -17
--Lower Yellowstone 67 65 -20
----Wind 64 67 -19
----Shoshone 62 59 -12
----Bighorn 69 67 -15
----Tongue 70 61 -25
----Powder 73 70 -28

With normal or above normal spring and summer rain, streamflows in most areas are expected to be near to below those experienced last year. Early snow melt could result in streamflows reaching early snow melt peak flows and fall to critically low flows in late spring and summer. “Actual streamflows will now depend upon how the remaining snowpack melts and the timing and amount of rainfall received,” said Kaiser.

Below are streamflow forecasts for the period April 1 through July 31. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL SPRING CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE (70% or less) OR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (130% or more) SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAIN. Specific forecast probabilities are available in each individual River Basin Report.

Streamflow Forecasts River Basin April-July This Year % of Average April-July Last Year % of Average
Kootenai 71 to 80 68 to 77
Flathead 67 to 75 66 to 74
Upper Clark Fork 50 to 65 68 to 84
Bitterroot 62 to 72 91 to 100
Lower Clark Fork 64 to 71 67 to 75
Jefferson 61 to 79 42 to 58
Madison 89 to 95 63 to 69
Gallatin 75 to 85 60 to 70
Smith-Judith-Musselshell 76 to 92 39 to 47
Sun-Teton-Marias 58 to 78 49 to 65
St. Mary 78 to 84 69 to 76
Upper Yellowstone 74 to 85 70 to 81
Lower Yellowstone 54 to 67 55 to 67

NOTE: The APRIL-JULY LAST YEAR % OF AVERAGE column above is what was forecast last year, not what actually occurred.

--end--

[Urbankayaker]

Urban - The Gallatin is the closest to Bozeman, about 30 minutes to the put-in

Oh yeah, I think I've paddled that, not sure though. I might be confused with a river near U of M... Here's a way to figure it out for myself... Is the town Bonner near U of M of MSU, cause I distinctly remember passing thru that town on my way up to paddle, and also its funny name.