Is the stock market going to tank?

[californiagrown]

Surprised no one’s talking about UNH — seems like a clear buy to me… massive company with many profitable/compliant business lines. My hot take is the market is spooked from broader issues and the pending lawsuit is driving down the price ++ murder of Chris… Sure Medicare advantage has its issues and is under scrutiny but healthcare is fairly recession proof in my eyes, and MA is a small share of UNH as a whole. Look at their global products, pharmacy (Optum rx), commercial plans, etc safe to say they are a big ass company (#4 on fortune 500). Who knows trigger pulled on some stock, planning to hold 3-5 years.. think it’s a good buy. Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

I cashed out a bunch of XOM and went into UNH with a chunk yesterday at a hair under 300. Reading through a bunch of stuff it just seems like there is no good reason it should have lost half its value in a month, and it also appears to be one of those "too big to fail" companies. The final thing that tipped me into buying in was that i had been looking at other healthcare ideas as a safe-place from tarriffs and global trade issues, so this fit well into a sector i wanted more exposure. I have a chunk of money reserved for "evil companies" that i will not be adding to, so whenever i want to buy something "evil", i have to sell another evil company's shares.

Fingers crossed!

[SkiLyft]

^ nice I’m continuing to buy more as it hangs out below three hundred

It’s also a moral hedge, if the company implodes, morally I’ll be pleased. If it goes back up, financially I’ll be rewarded hahahaba


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[jono]

I'm curious to hear how you guys discount the "evil's" potential impact on future earnings in UNH. Obviously the market has hit them pretty hard, but how do you guys come to your own target price?

Here's a quick bear case, just for the sake of discussion:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/...ying-the-52-d/

Specifically RE: past performance, I assume that UNH had a PE in the 20's at its recent high (since it's 12ish now), meaning the market expected future growth.

For perspective, Berkshire Hathaway may be the singular standard for long term growth and their PE is 13.5 right now. I'm selling BRK if the PE ratio gets near 20 (OTOH, I'd buy NVDA with both hands at a 20 PE).

There may be a reasonable upper bound on the cost if, say, UNH is found guilty of criminally denying care by blocking nursing home transfers (punitive could be high but DOJ dropping the case against Boeing may lower the max). But if the previous earnings beats were unsustainable or overly manipulative (post ACA some manipulation is assumed) the spector of Enron lurks out there somewhere in terms of maximum risk.

It takes both sides to make a market and I'm not buying any UNH puts*, I'm just curious about your thought process in this murky area.

*so far--but I took note of one expiring in the money last week with a 52-week range of $0.01-$70ish. Nice penny lottery ticket.

[californiagrown]

^^^ honestly, my thesis for buying was based much more on its ~5yr price, vs what it fell to in such a short period of time. UNH is an absolute behemouth that is "too big to fail" (knocks on wood) so that mitigates the downside risk as it has already fallen 50%, so its unlikely to go all that much lower, and is much more likely to get a dead cat bounce or just simply recover 25%-50%. The plunge in price seems to be based more on bad public perception from a few scandals, rather than problems with their business serious-enough to justify a 50% drop in company value. Thats not to say there arent problems with the business, it just doesnt seem like the problems are of the fundamental-type that would justify a 50% drop in a 6week period... and there arent competitors positioned to immediately take away the business, and we know for a fact the demand for the business is just going to increase (thanks boomers).So, basically, i think this is a case of a market overreaction based on fear rather than any actual numbers.

I have been looking for a way to both get more exposure in the healthcare sector (due to tarriff uncertainty making me leery of nearly everything else), and to also rotate out of my fairly large XOM holding as oil prices drop accross the world and i think XOM will continue to drop. I dont think the Enron situation is realistic here. UNH is too large, and too diversified providing a product which is a borderline humanright to our citizens. I think that alone significantly sets UNH apart- that the product they provide is literally healthcare to 50 million americans. In terms of impact to america, letting UNH go the way of Enron would be equivalent to stopping farming subsidies overnight and crashing the agricultural industry and letting famine happen here. There is no possible way the government allows that to happen.

Also, i ran through my portfolio real quick, and there are only a few holdings that have P/Es under 15 (BRK, F, XOM), and UNH has the second lowest P/E of any of them (fuck you ford). The drop in UNH just seems way too chicken-little.

[yeahman]

FWIW my FA just dumped some UNH for tax loss harvesting. I told him at the beginning that I did not like insurance companies even if they might be a good investment. (The stock was part of my dad's estate.)

[summit]

UNHs business model is 100% dependent on the current legal framework not be upended buy some populist movement whether it is an anti-insurance revamp of ACA or whether you end up with single payer scenario. The rug can get pulled just the same as Trump pulling tariffs. That is without all the legal cases against them. I don't want to touch it.

[Hopeless Sinner]

I simply will not invest in companies that over promise and under deliver as a strategy in the search for profit, particularly in health care, considering the negative impact on customers lives. (prob own it in my index fund, anyway, sad to say)

[californiagrown]

UNHs business model is 100% dependent on the current legal framework not be upended buy some populist movement whether it is an anti-insurance revamp of ACA or whether you end up with single payer scenario. The rug can get pulled just the same as Trump pulling tariffs. That is without all the legal cases against them. I don't want to touch it.

I dont think the current administration in power is anti-insurance, or pro-single payer? Seems like the current admin would be supportive of UNH because healthcare is the one political hot potato that the GOP/MAGA seems to draw the line at doing away with. Obvioulsy who the fuck knows what cheetolini will come up wiht next, but it seems highly unlikely that this administration would yank the rug out from UNH? What do you think?

[jono]

If you bought for a dead cat bounce, do you have a specific plan to get back out? It seems like trading on price action for that conflicts a little bit with holding it to increase exposure to healthcare, which sounds long term. I try to look into fundamentals a bit for a long term hold, but everybody's different. Maybe the market isirrational, maybe half the shareholders woke up and realized they never checked into UNH in the first place, but how do you quantify that? And do you make a plan, like sell half on an uptick etc, or do you decide at the time?

I'm looking to increase healthcare exposure myself, but I don't think I want to start tracking UNH. It looked complicated before the nursing home issue and I don't want to have to interpret everything according to my worst suspicions. Which I'd probably do, since I expect it's easier to wrangle bonus money from shareholders than Medicare recipients--rob banks because that's where the money is, etc.

[californiagrown]

Im looking to start exiting UNH at 400. Dead cat was not the right term. I feel it is seriously undervalued (by P/E and by historic pricing over the past 5 years) and that its sudden price collapse was irrational and that it will recover to something a little more rational reflecting its actual business headwinds. I have been holding a healthcare REIT for a few years that has performed well and would like to buy into another. Any healthcare REITs catching your eye?

[muffcabbage2@pm.me]

Heard Indian banks pay a minimum 8% interest, some 13%.
Can anyone verify?

[m2711c]

is the pope catholic?

[muffcabbage2@pm.me]

Indians aren't, by and large. Is that a yes?

[muffcabbage2@pm.me]

Thinking about going with the Cherokee Nations Bank of Oklahoma...

[ötzi]

Thatll end up a trrail of tears Im sure.

[byates1]

[XXX-er]

I was wanking about on my phone when a news blip came on that my IBM stock was the highest eva

It was all payroll deduction and I have no idea how to deal with it Hopefully it splits

I am just gona leave it for the kids to deal with

[yeahman]

Unemployment among young college graduates outpaces overall US joblessness rate

https://apnews.com/article/college-g...085a47fa58f90f

[gravitylover]

^^ Yeah... My 26 year old daughter with a Masters and dual certs in elementary ed and special ed can't find a job within 50 miles of home other than being a sub. Ooh, ooh, we need teachers! We don't hire first year teachers though, has to have at least 3 years experience... WTF

[Bunion 2020]

Empirical evidence:
The number of construction project starts in the Big Sky area has collapsed. LML has stopped building vertical and is doing civil only for the most part. They did the same thing prior to 2008.

Reasons given: Too much supply, labor rates are insane, material costs are equally insane.

Laborers that were being begged to work and at $ 30.00 + p/hr are now finding that $22-25.00 p/hr is a good wage again, if you can find it.

[byates1]

^ interesting. Place I'm at now is hiring. We have a bunch of new kids/college kids. Seems easier to find.

The quality of the kitchen ppl though holy shit. Noone cares. Everyone who is 18-23 wants 25$ an hour and barely can show up for a week without some bullshit.

The societal crash out is real.

I might go sit on the ocean for a month.

[J. Barron DeJong]

It is not societal crash out, it is a tight labor market (that looks to be turning).

During the Great Recession, you needed a college degree to be hired as a Starbucks barista. But now, with low unemployment for several years there is not a big pool of labor to pull from for low wage jobs, so the workers that end up in those jobs are not going to be as good as when unemployment is high.

Good for society, maybe bad for particular businesses/industries.

[byates1]

Jong is one of the pre-eminent thought leaders of our time

[J. Barron DeJong]

Appreciate the acknowledgment.

[MultiVerse]

The good-ish news is demand destruction from tariffs is lowering inflation. The bad news is this tariff nonsense is hurting American exports and increasing *not decreasing* the American trade deficit. Exports are falling more than imports. A weaker dollar should be helping, but it's not. America's trade deficit increased 11-percent