The baseball thread.

[Tin Woodsman]

Holliday was ROBBED.

He carried his team to the playoffs, whereas the Mets folded and GAVE it to the Phillies.

Just look at the numbers over the last two months when it mattered most.

Holliday:
August - .330 ave, .530 slg, 4 HR, 21 RBI
September - .367, .796, 12, 30

Rollins:
August - .296, .487, 4, 11
September - .298, .542, 6, 18

1) That doesn't address the home/road split issue - Holliday is essentially Kevin Millar (during his peak) when playing on the road. That's a good player, but not an MVP.

2) Last I checked, the games in April, May, June and July count too

3) The Phillies two best monthly records this year were August and September

[smmokan]

It was obviously down to these two guys; both teams closed really well to make the postseason, but Rollins plays a much more important position and is perceived as more of a leader and sparkplug kinda guy than Holliday.

He was perceived as more of a leader because the Phillies were on Sportscenter more than the Rockies. Count the Rockies games on ESPN this year.... maybe one? 'Nuff said.

Tin- there was exactly 0.1 runs/game more at Coors than in Philly this year- not much of an advantage if you ask me. The HR's in each park were near identical.

However, I've got to agree with SSD's last post- these awards mean nothing anymore.... its really more of a popularity contest than anything else.

[pappag]

1) That doesn't address the home/road split issue - Holliday is essentially Kevin Millar (during his peak) when playing on the road. That's a good player, but not an MVP.

2) Last I checked, the games in April, May, June and July count too

3) The Phillies two best monthly records this year were August and September

1) Holliday away = .301 ave / .485 slg / 11 HR / 55 RBI
Rollins away = .293 / .507 slg / 12 HR / 47 RBI

1a) Holliday batted .333 with RISP
Rollins - .272.



2) Holliday's numbers are still VASTLY better than Rollins over the course of the entire year.



3) July - 15-10
August - 16-12
September - 17-11

[smmokan]

But Nick, my friend, no one outside of Colorado knew Matt Holliday existed until the middle of September.

If he played for anyone on the eastern seaboard, he may have won the MVP award unanimously.

[pappag]

But Nick, my friend, no one outside of Colorado knew Matt Holliday existed until the middle of September.

If he played for anyone on the eastern seaboard, he may have won the MVP award unanimously.

I've heard plenty of this phenomenon but haven't experienced until this year.

Until next year ...

[Steven S. Dallas]

1) Holliday away = .301 ave / .485 slg / 11 HR / 55 RBI
Rollins away = .293 / .507 slg / 12 HR / 47 RBI

I don't think you understand the comparison he's trying to make.

Anyway, Rollins had a sick season offensively and won the Gold Glove at shortstop. He was a vocal leader who predicted his team would win the division and came up huge against the Mets. Holliday maybe had a sicker season offensively, but did not win a Gold Glove in left field and plays on a team with veteran leadership- he may have been a leader, but was not the only one, as seems to be the case in with Rollins and Philadelphia. It is possible that there was East Coast bias involved. It was one of the closest MVP contests in history. There you go. Anything else is just complaining.

[irul&ublo]

I've got a better question...

Who are the two complete fucking morons who didn't vote for A-Rod for AL MVP?

[Brock Landers]

I've got a better question...

Who are the two complete fucking morons who didn't vote for A-Rod for AL MVP?

totally agreed...two moron reporters from detroit. A Rod only had one of the best years of all time...

i think holliday and rollins were so close, you cant bitch about one over the other- one had to win. I think the gold glove and premium on defense showed up maybe a bit?
Comparing the numbers you guys are is tailored to holliday's case- HR, RBI, etc. Throw in runs, the home/road splits, stolen bases, DEFENSE, perceived "leadership" (whatever that may be) and its a real close race- its not a huge travesty that Holliday didnt win, IMO. Rollins had a fantastic year too on a playoff team.

[pappag]

I don't think you understand the comparison he's trying to make.

Anyway, Rollins had a sick season offensively and won the Gold Glove at shortstop. He was a vocal leader who predicted his team would win the division and came up huge against the Mets. Holliday maybe had a sicker season offensively, but did not win a Gold Glove in left field and plays on a team with veteran leadership- he may have been a leader, but was not the only one, as seems to be the case in with Rollins and Philadelphia. It is possible that there was East Coast bias involved. It was one of the closest MVP contests in history. There you go. Anything else is just complaining.

I fully understand the comparison.

As for the Gold Glove argument, how can you apply it to the MVP and not the ROY?



Rollins most certainly did NOT have a sick year.
Let's not start throwing around exaggerations.
.296 / 30 HR / 94 RBI (even with 139 R and 41 SB) is not sick.
Take a look at Rickey Henderson's 1985 season.
.314 / 27 / 72 / 146 R / 80 SB
He was 3rd and nearly 200 points behind Don Mattingly (.324 / 35 / 145).



"Veteran leadership"? Outside of Helton and Carroll, everyone else on the starting lineup of the Rockies has 3 years of playing experience or less (Torrealba has played in the equivalent of about 3 years worth of games). The EXACT same scenario can be applied to Rollins and the Phillies.

[Steven S. Dallas]

I fully understand the comparison.

Then why just put the splits up next to each other? He was saying that Rollins' production at home was the same as it was on the road, whereas Holliday's clearly suffers away from Coors- which is where most of the writers who vote on the MVP see him play. He wasn't saying that Rollins' numbers were better on the road than Holliday's, which is all those statistics prove for the few split categories posted.

As far as the leadership thing goes, again, Rollins is unquestionably the leader of that team, above even Charlie Manuel. Maybe Holliday is the same for the Rockies; I don't get that feeling but maybe he is. And as far as Rollins' offense, you don't have to be impressed by a leadoff guy who goes .300/30/90 and leads the league in runs if you don't want to. I think that's a pretty good season.

Your Henderson/Mattingly comparison is so pointless to this conversation I don't really know where to begin. First of all, they were on the same team, which tends to change the voting a little bit... Okay, actually, that's a pretty good place to begin.

[pappag]

Your Henderson/Mattingly comparison is so pointless to this conversation I don't really know where to begin.

Pointless because both had comparable numbers to Rollins and Holliday?
Gotcha.

First of all, they were on the same team, which tends to change the voting a little bit... Okay, actually, that's a pretty good place to begin.

Didn't affect the voting in 2000.

[Steven S. Dallas]

Pointless because both had comparable numbers to Rollins and Holliday?

Show me how the 1985 AL MVP has anything to do with or is at all predictive of the 2007 NL MVP voting, and you might have a point.

Also, your comparison begins with the assumption that the voters got it right in 1985. I'm sure a lot of people would disagree with that.

As for 2000, Jeff Kent had a great year and people were sick of giving it to/hated Bonds. But what does your comment even mean? Obviously two people from the same team can have a great year and one of them can win the MVP.

[Tin Woodsman]

Pointless because both had comparable numbers to Rollins and Holliday?
Gotcha.

Actually, you still don't get the point, and it's getting embarrassing for you. You just posted numbers indicating that, at worst, Rollins was the equal of Holliday when they played at less than 5000' elevation. On those neutral fields, Rollings, from the lead-off spot mind you, had more HR, a higher SLG, and only 8 fewer RBI. Again, from the lead-off spot. I won't mention SB or, to a lesser extent, runs, b/c the difference just isn't fair. Holliday had a nice season on the road... for Kevin Millar in his prime. He was a flat out animal in his home games - there can be no question of that. But let's not go crazy here. Manny Ramirez put up the same OPS for the entire season, home and away, in 2000. Walker and Helton did it too, in '99 and 2000 respectively. Holliday's season, while great, wasn't historically great by any means.

Rollins had a historically great offensive season for a SS. SS is the most important defensive position except for catcher and he played it at a GG level defense. Was Rollins clearly superior? Absolutely not. But the weight of evidence suggests he had the better season when you consider the positions they play and their relative defensive contributions. It's close, which is why the result was close, but to paint it as a slam dunk for Holliday is wrong on a number of levels.

Furthermore, there is no comparison to the Braun/Tulo for the ROY. Tulo had a nice season at SS. An .834 OPS and GG defense at SS is incredibly valuable. Unfortunately, he ran into a historically great season for a rookie from Braun. The one rookie who has had an equally good season in the last decade is named Pujols. There are only 9 players in baseball history with a career OPS better than the 1.004 that Braun put up in his rookie campaign. Granted, he's a butcher in the field, but the greatness of his season at the plate was more than enough to overcome that. Oh, BTW, stole over twice as many bases as Tulo while getting caught less.

You're comparing apples and oranges, and are just coming off looking like an upset fanboy. Stop it.

[pappag]

Kevin Millar in his prime? Please show me a season where Millar averaged .301 average, .485 sluggin, 22 HR, and 110 RBI for a full year. Oh that's right, because there isn't one. Yet, you wish to not mention apples and oranges.



"Historically great" doesn't include being the 5th player in the last 59 years to lead the league in RBI's and average. Yet, you wish to not mention apples and oranges.



Manny Ramirez and his 6th place finish in 2000 has what to do with this year's voting? Yet, you wish to not mention apples and oranges.



You bring up fielding in the MVP voting yet completely ignore it in the ROY voting. Braun posted the WORST fielding percentage for a third baseman since 1912. Yet, you wish to not mention apples and oranges.

Actually, you still don't get the point, and it's getting embarrassing for you. You just posted numbers indicating that, at worst, Rollins was the equal of Holliday when they played at less than 5000' elevation. On those neutral fields, Rollings, from the lead-off spot mind you, had more HR, a higher SLG, and only 8 fewer RBI. Again, from the lead-off spot. I won't mention SB or, to a lesser extent, runs, b/c the difference just isn't fair. Holliday had a nice season on the road... for Kevin Millar in his prime. He was a flat out animal in his home games - there can be no question of that. But let's not go crazy here. Manny Ramirez put up the same OPS for the entire season, home and away, in 2000. Walker and Helton did it too, in '99 and 2000 respectively. Holliday's season, while great, wasn't historically great by any means.

Rollins had a historically great offensive season for a SS. SS is the most important defensive position except for catcher and he played it at a GG level defense. Was Rollins clearly superior? Absolutely not. But the weight of evidence suggests he had the better season when you consider the positions they play and their relative defensive contributions. It's close, which is why the result was close, but to paint it as a slam dunk for Holliday is wrong on a number of levels.

Furthermore, there is no comparison to the Braun/Tulo for the ROY. Tulo had a nice season at SS. An .834 OPS and GG defense at SS is incredibly valuable. Unfortunately, he ran into a historically great season for a rookie from Braun. The one rookie who has had an equally good season in the last decade is named Pujols. There are only 9 players in baseball history with a career OPS better than the 1.004 that Braun put up in his rookie campaign. Granted, he's a butcher in the field, but the greatness of his season at the plate was more than enough to overcome that. Oh, BTW, stole over twice as many bases as Tulo while getting caught less.

You're comparing apples and oranges, and are just coming off looking like an upset fanboy. Stop it.

[stump832]

For what its worth, I don't totally disagree with the Colorado crowd, though it pains me to say it. Baseball Prospectus's calcs barely had Rollins in the top 10 (he was 9th). Holliday was #4. Who finished in the top 3? Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chipper Jones. I probably would have voted for Holliday, I thought Rollins was a pretty weak choice. In fact, I probably would have voted for Utley before Rollins (Utley had about 165 fewer ABs than Rollins and still finsihed ahead of him in VORP).

Fun fact: Ryan Braun was number 10. Where was Tulowitzki? Number 29. Not that close.

I think its generally accepted that the baseball writers of america generally go out of their way to fuck up at least one award per year. This year, its definitely the NL MVP.

[iceman]

For what its worth, I don't totally disagree with the Colorado crowd, though it pains me to say it. Baseball Prospectus's calcs barely had Rollins in the top 10 (he was 9th). Holliday was #4. Who finished in the top 3? Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chipper Jones. I probably would have voted for Holliday, I thought Rollins was a pretty weak choice. In fact, I probably would have voted for Utley before Rollins (Utley had about 165 fewer ABs than Rollins and still finsihed ahead of him in VORP).

Fun fact: Ryan Braun was number 10. Where was Tulowitzki? Number 29. Not that close.

I think its generally accepted that the baseball writers of america generally go out of their way to fuck up at least one award per year. This year, its definitely the NL MVP.

Fuck, I was ready to go lynch somebody after tin Woodsman's post, what a buzzkill you can be with all the facts and shit.

[stump832]

Fuck, I was ready to go lynch somebody after tin Woodsman's post, what a buzzkill you can be with all the facts and shit.

Sorry man. All I've got in my NL picnic basket is a jar of indifference and a fact sandwich.

[Steven S. Dallas]

For what its worth, I don't totally disagree with the Colorado crowd, though it pains me to say it.

Neither do I (and I said as much) but their incessant bitching drives me insane. Who gives a shit? Why would you want a player nearing contract negotiations to win the MVP?

Also, sorry Nick, but your arguments are far too stupid to go unchallenged.

[Tin Woodsman]

For what its worth, I don't totally disagree with the Colorado crowd, though it pains me to say it. Baseball Prospectus's calcs barely had Rollins in the top 10 (he was 9th). Holliday was #4. Who finished in the top 3? Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chipper Jones. I probably would have voted for Holliday, I thought Rollins was a pretty weak choice. In fact, I probably would have voted for Utley before Rollins (Utley had about 165 fewer ABs than Rollins and still finsihed ahead of him in VORP).

Fun fact: Ryan Braun was number 10. Where was Tulowitzki? Number 29. Not that close.

I think its generally accepted that the baseball writers of america generally go out of their way to fuck up at least one award per year. This year, its definitely the NL MVP.

Great post. Finally some intelligent commentary. I'm not sure VORP is the be all and end all for assessing player performance (what is?). First, VORP doesn't include a defensive component. This is a huge hole, as studies suggest that defense is no less than 20% of the game. This has obvious implications for the Rollins vs. Holliday debate. Moreover, VORP doesn't adjust for positional scarcity. It assumes that replacement value for each position is 70 points of OPS below league average. Given that it is a lot easier to find an OF who can be league average than it is to find a SS, that skews the results. It's a lot easier and more common to have a Scott Spezio or Trot Nixon on your bench than it is a viable alternative at SS or 2B. If you look at VORP over the years, OF have generally been over-represented as a % of players.

Ramirez and Jones didn't have a chance b/c of the teams they played on. Given Rollins contribution at the plate and in the field, I think it's very reasonable to iknclude him as a finalist for MVP. It was close, and the voting reflects that, but this "we got jobbed" nonsense emanating from Colorado has to stop. It's not like Holliday had an other-wordly season by most statistical measures.

[stump832]

VORP actually does adjust for position, but you're right that it doesn't take defense into account. WARP adjusts for both (which is wins above replacement player).

Interestingly, that "+/-" is hte number of runs prevented above the average player at his position. So Holliday was actually 2 runs better in LF than the average LF than Rollins was better than the average SS. Rollins still wasn't even the best player on his team, though in this case its much closer.

Player WARP FRAA +/- PMR
Albert Pujols 11.3 22 +37 113
David Wright 10.6 5 +13 106
Jake Peavy 10.6 0 +5 --
Matt Holliday 9.7 10 +9 97
Chase Utley 9.3 5 +22 106
Jimmy Rollins 9.2 8 +7 103
Miguel Cabrera 9.2 5 -24 91
Chipper Jones 9.1 1 -3 100
Hanley Ramirez 8.9 -8 -37 99
Prince Fielder 6.8 -15 -15 98


I'm generally with SSD though - who cares. The writers give the award to the person who has generated the best stories for them all year, not based on merit.

[Tin Woodsman]

VORP actually does adjust for position, but you're right that it doesn't take defense into account. WARP adjusts for both (which is wins above replacement player).

Interestingly, that "+/-" is hte number of runs prevented above the average player at his position. So Holliday was actually 2 runs better in LF than the average LF than Rollins was better than the average SS. Rollins still wasn't even the best player on his team, though in this case its much closer.

Player WARP FRAA +/- PMR
Albert Pujols 11.3 22 +37 113
David Wright 10.6 5 +13 106
Jake Peavy 10.6 0 +5 --
Matt Holliday 9.7 10 +9 97
Chase Utley 9.3 5 +22 106
Jimmy Rollins 9.2 8 +7 103
Miguel Cabrera 9.2 5 -24 91
Chipper Jones 9.1 1 -3 100
Hanley Ramirez 8.9 -8 -37 99
Prince Fielder 6.8 -15 -15 98

I'm generally with SSD though - who cares. The writers give the award to the person who has generated the best stories for them all year, not based on merit.

I misspoke. According to this link, "

Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous unpublished studies). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research).

So yes, it does adjust for position in terms of setting a baseline positional avg, but it assumes that the delta between replacement level and positional avg is the same for each position. That's where I disagree strongly.

Regardless, as your WARP values indicate, it was a tight race amongst the realistic candidates (this leaves out Pujols, Peavy, Cabrera, Jones and Ramirez). I think if the Mets held on to win the NL East, you'd see a lot more love for David Wright.

Nonetheless, we are in total agreement that writers are idiots. Sometimes it's worse than who generates stories for them. Sometimes, it's just spite - George King step up to the mic! Got to love when a guy says he doesn't vote for pitchers in the MVP race when his voting record from previous years, including votes for pitchers, is easily accessible.

[The AD]

Just look at the numbers over the last two months when it mattered most.

I never understood this line of reasoning. Every win matters equally. Yes, it was a big story that the Rockies went on a tear the last month of the season, but they could have just as easily propelled themselves to the postseason by winning more games early on.

[smmokan]

Rollins had a historically great offensive season for a SS. SS is the most important defensive position except for catcher and he played it at a GG level defense. Was Rollins clearly superior? Absolutely not. But the weight of evidence suggests he had the better season when you consider the positions they play and their relative defensive contributions. It's close, which is why the result was close, but to paint it as a slam dunk for Holliday is wrong on a number of levels.

Furthermore, there is no comparison to the Braun/Tulo for the ROY. Tulo had a nice season at SS. An .834 OPS and GG defense at SS is incredibly valuable. Unfortunately, he ran into a historically great season for a rookie from Braun. The one rookie who has had an equally good season in the last decade is named Pujols. There are only 9 players in baseball history with a career OPS better than the 1.004 that Braun put up in his rookie campaign. Granted, he's a butcher in the field, but the greatness of his season at the plate was more than enough to overcome that. Oh, BTW, stole over twice as many bases as Tulo while getting caught less.

Now this is just stupid. You're using Rollins' defense as a reason he should have won, but then you discount it in the case of Tulo? First off, there's no way in hell Rollins should have won the GG over Tulo- but that's another argument. If you take out defense, like the writers most assuredly did when they voted for NL ROY (how else can you explain it, since Braun had the second WORST FIELDING PERCENTAGE BY A 3RD BASEMAN IN HISTORY), then they should have been consistent when voting for NL MVP. Actually, according to Stump's post above, it even looks like Holliday was a better defensive LF'er than Rollins' was at SS.

When it comes down to it, Rollins won his GG based on popularity and his MVP was a product of him being on TV and in the media much more often than Holliday. Shit, ESPN had an article in the magazine about Rollins' fucking posse- how's that for coverage?

And by the way SSD, I already mentioned that the lack of an award will keep his price down. He's still got two more years of arbitration left as well, so he's not a FA just yet.

[The AD]

Hell, if Utley hadn't been on the DL for a while, Jimmy Rollins wouldn't have even been the MVP of his team, let alone the league.

[Tin Woodsman]

Now this is just stupid. You're using Rollins' defense as a reason he should have won, but then you discount it in the case of Tulo? First off, there's no way in hell Rollins should have won the GG over Tulo- but that's another argument. If you take out defense, like the writers most assuredly did when they voted for NL ROY (how else can you explain it, since Braun had the second WORST FIELDING PERCENTAGE BY A 3RD BASEMAN IN HISTORY), then they should have been consistent when voting for NL MVP. Actually, according to Stump's post above, it even looks like Holliday was a better defensive LF'er than Rollins' was at SS.

When it comes down to it, Rollins won his GG based on popularity and his MVP was a product of him being on TV and in the media much more often than Holliday. Shit, ESPN had an article in the magazine about Rollins' fucking posse- how's that for coverage?

You are either not smart, or lack reading comprehension skills. I'll quote my own post:

Furthermore, there is no comparison to the Braun/Tulo for the ROY. Tulo had a nice season at SS. An .834 OPS and GG defense at SS is incredibly valuable. Unfortunately, he ran into a historically great season for a rookie from Braun. The one rookie who has had an equally good season in the last decade is named Pujols. There are only 9 players in baseball history with a career OPS better than the 1.004 that Braun put up in his rookie campaign. Granted, he's a butcher in the field, but the greatness of his season at the plate was more than enough to overcome that. Oh, BTW, stole over twice as many bases as Tulo while getting caught less.

Yes, defense does matter, but when one player's offensive contributions are so overwhelmingly greater than the others, that difference can't be overcome. Please stop acting like a broken-hearted fanboy. It's embarrassing for Rockies fans. The fact that you actually use fielding % to try and make your case w/r/t Braun is a sad indictment of your understanding of defensive metrics.