Worst conditions ever in S. VT

**gravitylover** · 01-07-2007, 10:36 AM

So I'm supposed to be up there next weekend and can't decide if it's even gonna be worth the drive time much less the $$. What to do? Maybe Virginia Beach instead

**buckethead** · 01-07-2007, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by Rontele

i have to reiterate that this has nothing to do with global warming, but El Nino.

this is likely a case of el nino AND...or better, superimposed over a changing(>avg temp) climate...we've had el nino's in the past - but not with these routine 60F days in NE ... we've had more of them than days even remotely nippy. scraped ice of windshield maybe twice this winter. a third layer outside once. the snowmaking hills could always create the illusion we were getting snow in the nearby mtns ... now that's becoming difficult ...

**green mtns rider** · 01-07-2007, 10:40 AM

on my way up to work yesterday, i caught a glimpse of the hill (killington) and its not a pretty site. they lost a ton of snow, bare spots all over the place, rivers flowing down the trails. i couldnt help but bust out laughing. this is driving me crazy!!! wtf...

**MassLiberal** · 01-07-2007, 10:44 AM

Originally Posted by Rontele

i have to reiterate that this has nothing to do with global warming, but El Nino.

Really? 2001 was an el nino year, and it was pretty epic. remember 1998? Pretty good, if the ice storms had been all snow, it would be a record holder. As far as I can remember, every el nino year has been absolutely fantastic, except for this one.

**buckethead** · 01-07-2007, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by green mtns rider

on my way up to work yesterday, i caught a glimpse of the hill (killington) and its not a pretty site. they lost a ton of snow, bare spots all over the place, rivers flowing down the trails. i couldnt help but bust out laughing. this is driving me crazy!!! wtf...

well, you just made me feel better that i'm here typing instead of over at K skiing. i'm holding out for day off weds - and maybe, just maybe a(nother) last minute opening of mad

**Rontele** · 01-07-2007, 10:51 AM

Originally Posted by MassLiberal

Really? 2001 was an el nino year, and it was pretty epic. remember 1998? Pretty good, if the ice storms had been all snow, it would be a record holder. As far as I can remember, every el nino year has been absolutely fantastic, except for this one.

And every other El Nino year has meant zero snow for the CO Front Range. The problem in comparing different El Nino years is that they differ in strength, which ultimately determines the position and potency of the upper, subtropical jet.

NOAA forecasters are adamant that this is not global warming (not arguing that climate change isn't happening), but rather is a function of a "moderate" El Nino.

**Blurreds_left_nut** · 01-07-2007, 11:04 AM

this is my first winter living in the East. I came from chicago and thought at a minimum I would get turns in every weekend and hopefully score about 5 pow dumps a winter by taking off from work and hitting up weekend storms. This is not what I expected... and know it is not always like this but I am fearful this will become the trend

**steve** · 01-07-2007, 11:54 AM

el nino, global warming..
jet stream?

**shmoesmith** · 01-07-2007, 12:24 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Global warming is a left wing media conspiracy.

You are the last person I thought I would meet that would admit that

**Natedogg** · 01-07-2007, 12:49 PM

Originally Posted by BenWA

So you should just do a trip out west. Find a place where lift tickets are like $45, and the money you'll save by not buying $80 tickets in VT you can put towards airfare and lodging.

Im there. When?

I havent even been skeeeein this season--probably the latest ever for me. I was thinking of heading to Mt Snow either yesterday or today... Glad I didnt.

BTW, I agree with Rontele. Its funny that when a relatively small geographic area experiences non-'normal' temperatures, everyone jumps on the doomsday bandwagon. I mentioned this on the Sunday River board, and it seems to fit in here: if we lived during the Little Ice Age and Long Island Sound was filled with sea ice, naysayers would probably be worried about 'Global Cooling.'

The climate has always warmed and cooled in natural cyclical patterns--a novel idea.

**glademaster** · 01-07-2007, 01:48 PM

I have actually seen, heard and read numerous climatologists who have refuted NOAA's claims that this is not a result of global warming. There is no doubt that the main culprit is El Nino, but the temperatures we're seeing are above those expected during even strong El Nino years. Meteorologists tend to disregard historical weather data when making statements like "it is in no way, shape or form global warming," instead focusing on this warmth as an isolated event. You have to look at it in the context of history and previous El Nino patterns/years.

Either way, it sucks.

**Rontele** · 01-07-2007, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

Either way, it sucks.

Agreed. And I have no doubt that climate change due to humans exists, but show me more than one horrid year for NE before I jump on the global warming bandwagon...

The PacNW had a non-existant winter two winters ago and look at how bountiful the last two seasons have been.

**asland** · 01-07-2007, 02:33 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Agreed. And I have no doubt that climate change due to humans exists, but show me more than one horrid year for NE before I jump on the global warming bandwagon...

The PacNW had a non-existant winter two winters ago and look at how bountiful the last two seasons have been.

There seem to be three major factors at play to create this warmth and global warming is one of them.
Check out this NPR story on what is happening this winter to create the warm weather (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=6737032)

**Natedogg** · 01-07-2007, 02:45 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

I have actually seen, heard and read numerous climatologists who have refuted NOAA's claims that this is not a result of global warming.

I may have said this in previous threads about global warming, but I think the general public doesnt even realize what 'global warming' is. Just to be clear what we are talking about here: Global warming has occurred throughout Earths history. It warms, it cools. Warms. Cools. Warms cools. Warmscoolswarmscoolswarmscools. ... etc.

Anthropogenic (human)-induced warming is probably what most people mean. And while evidence is mounting that increased emissions of certain gasses due to industry might affect global climate, in truth there is NO WAY to absolutely prove it (not currently). It is possible that without any human input, global climate would be warming right now.

Disclaimer for all you flame-happy maggots out there: no, I dont drive a SUV, I have degrees in environmental science, I recycle, and I believe in using the least amount of resources as possible. These are just my strictly objective paleoclimatologically educated opinions.

**extreeski** · 01-07-2007, 02:54 PM

Originally Posted by Natedogg

I may have said this in previous threads about global warming, but I think the general public doesnt even realize what 'global warming' is. Just to be clear what we are talking about here: Global warming has occurred throughout Earths history. It warms, it cools. Warms. Cools. Warms cools. Warmscoolswarmscoolswarmscools. ... etc.

Anthropogenic (human)-induced warming is probably what most people mean. And while evidence is mounting that increased emissions of certain gasses due to industry might affect global climate, in truth there is NO WAY to absolutely prove it (not currently). It is possible that without any human input, global climate would be warming right now.

Disclaimer for all you flame-happy maggots out there: no, I dont drive a SUV, I have degrees in environmental science, I recycle, and I believe in using the least amount of resources as possible. These are just my strictly objective paleoclimatologically educated opinions.

You've gotta be kidding me. No wonder you were kicked out of the Pacific Northwest..... (J/K)

And Paleoclimatologically dude, you forget that humans are just a blip on the geologic time scale. We've warmed the planet, without a doubt scientifically, to a larger degree/scale than any of the natural warming/cooling cycles.

I guess I have to disagree with your opinions. As opinions are always up for debate. And remind you that science is fact. Global Warming is no longer theory.

And I am really sorry that New England and the northeast can't even get the temps to go below freezing so at least they can have their sweet ribbons of death. But haven't El Nino's been productive for Northeaster storms in the past?

**steve** · 01-07-2007, 03:24 PM

I have a question for the people blaming this crazy winter on global warming..

the above images indicate that, at best, temperatures in the northeast are 1ºC warmer than they were since the period between 1940 and 1980.

how do you use global warming explain the 10-20º above normal temperatures we've been experiencing? I'll be glad to give you 1 or 2º.. but what about the rest?

**extreeski** · 01-07-2007, 03:38 PM

Remember, that one degree celsius is a climatic average, (Mean means average....) duh... not based on the temperature fluctuation within a period of say, 6 months. So when you figure in the warmer temps of this year the average will most likely go up, but not up 10 degrees.

**Natedogg** · 01-07-2007, 03:48 PM

Your post confused the heck outta me.

Kicked out of the pacNW?

Originally Posted by extreeski

And Paleoclimatologically dude, you forget that humans are just a blip on the geologic time scale. We've warmed the planet, without a doubt scientifically, to a larger degree/scale than any of the natural warming/cooling cycles.

Why did I forget that we are a blip??
And where do you get the data for your "without a doubt" statement? How can you possibly say that??? Thats a significant claim--Id just like to hear the rationalization behind that.

Originally Posted by extreeski

And remind you that science is fact. Global Warming is no longer theory.

No arguements from me. Id just remind you to re-read my previous post about the true definition of global wamring because I sense that you're still not getting it.

**rideit** · 01-07-2007, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by shmoesmith

You are the last person I thought I would meet that would admit that

Wanna buy a bridge? My market research identifies you as an ideal target market. I'll give you a HELL of a deal, and you get to pick the bridge.

**Plakespear** · 01-07-2007, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by Natedogg

Anthropogenic (human)-induced warming is probably what most people mean. And while evidence is mounting that increased emissions of certain gasses due to industry might affect global climate, in truth there is NO WAY to absolutely prove it (not currently). It is possible that without any human input, global climate would be warming right now.

There is no way to absolutely prove the theory of evolution, either. And it is true that even without human input, temperatures might be rising due to the natural cycles. But the rate and amount that temperatures have increased over the last century are out of whack with the historical fluxuations. We are getting warmer, faster, than any other period in history, at least as far as we can tell.

Here's what Mt. Snow looked like yesterday:

**Blurreds_left_nut** · 01-07-2007, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Agreed. And I have no doubt that climate change due to humans exists, but show me more than one horrid year for NE before I jump on the global warming bandwagon...

The PacNW had a non-existant winter two winters ago and look at how bountiful the last two seasons have been.

25 square mile chunk of glacier falls into ocean, glaciers melting in greenland, certain glaciers disappearing in yellowstone due recession of the icepack... the list goes on and on.

**steve** · 01-07-2007, 03:56 PM

Originally Posted by extreeski

Remember, that one degree celsius is a climatic average, (Mean means average....) duh... not based on the temperature fluctuation within a period of say, 6 months. So when you figure in the warmer temps of this year the average will most likely go up, but not up 10 degrees.

but temperature anomalies happen with or without global warming... I can be persuaded to believe that global warming caused it to be 72º instead of 71º or even 70º in new york city yesterday - but it doesn't make sense to me that global warming caused it not to be 40º..

**Natedogg** · 01-07-2007, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by extreeski

Remember, that one degree celsius is a climatic average, (Mean means average....) duh... not based on the temperature fluctuation within a period of say, 6 months. So when you figure in the warmer temps of this year the average will most likely go up, but not up 10 degrees.

I would agree with this post. Which also makes the case that the usability of those figrues are close to nothing. They are so broad that they really dont say much. I could make one that comes out to show a cooling trend if I had hours to manipulate and find anomalies in data sets. I mean, come on, what is the relavance between mean temps of a 10-year period between 95 and 04 and a 41-year "norm" between 40 and 80?? What kind of arbitrary crap is that? Maybe the author had good reason, but its not evident from those figures.

Besides, I dont want to digress from my main point--how the hell could you possibly determine that if humans never existed then the Earth would not be warming right now at this rate? Im playing devils advocate here to an extent, but Im trying to get the point across that people who say "human-induced climate change is no longer a theory--its fact" do not have a leg to stand on.

**Natedogg** · 01-07-2007, 04:13 PM

Originally Posted by Plakespear

There is no way to absolutely prove the theory of evolution, either. And it is true that even without human input, temperatures might be rising due to the natural cycles. But the rate and amount that temperatures have increased over the last century are out of whack with the historical fluxuations. We are getting warmer, faster, than any other period in history, at least as far as we can tell.

Here's what Mt. Snow looked like yesterday:

Damn am I glad I didnt go. Ugh.

Plakes, youre right, but youre also comparing apples to oranges. Evolution is not exactly the convoluted entire-earth system that climate is. But youre right.

Youre wrong about "out of whack with historical fluctuations." Rapid climate change experts (paleoclimatologists) have determined that a change from glacial to interglacial conditions (and vice versa) has occurred in less than 30 years--possibly as short as 10 years. Its happened many times in the past 2 million years. At least thats what it looks like from the paleoclimate record...

Originally Posted by Blurreds_left_nut

25 square mile chunk of glacier falls into ocean, glaciers melting in greenland, certain glaciers disappearing in yellowstone due recession of the icepack... the list goes on and on.

This is exactly what Im talking about. People read or hear shit on the tv, radio, climate-evangelism, etc and this is the trash that gets puked back up.

1. Icebergs the size of states are calved from glaciers each year. Its a process that happens whether the climate is warming or cooling.

2. Glaciers melt whether the climate is warming or cooling.

3. There are no glaciers in Yellowstone.

**CantDog** · 01-07-2007, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by steve

but temperature anomalies happen with or without global warming... I can be persuaded to believe that global warming caused it to be 72º instead of 71º or even 70º in new york city yesterday - but it doesn't make sense to me that global warming caused it not to be 40º..

I heard a discussion today talking about essentially the same thing you speak about here. How I understand it is what global warming does is alter the baseline temp from which changes occur. Then, all these cyclical weather phenomenons(ninos/ninas/whatever) happen on top of that, and we have this crazy weather.

Its like office space. Sure, stealing .03 cents from every transaction isnt a big deal, until you have a million transactions. Then you are in trouble.

It takes enough energy for me to keep my bedroom a few degrees warmer at night. I cant even imagine what it takes to make the earth a few degrees warmer....