Another Winter Storm Watch for Denver

**rideit** · 12-27-2006, 03:50 PM

Orographic uplift=500+" a year at Grand Targhee.

**FrankZappa** · 12-27-2006, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Yeah, but as the low moves east, there will be wraparound moisture in a more N/NW flow which will favor the Northern and Central mountains around Aspen.

Screw north central.

Water pigs!

We need a big stalled Albuquerque low for the south and central central.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 03:53 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Orographic uplift=500+" a year at Grand Targhee.

And the Cottonwood Canyons. And FZ, screw your ABQ lows, we want a strong westerlies punching through from the PacNW

**MakersTeleMark** · 12-27-2006, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Yeah, but as the low moves east, there will be wraparound moisture in a more N/NW flow which will favor the Northern and Central mountains around Aspen.

That's not true. You should be looking at WP and the Boat for the reach around. (I'm serious).

**summit** · 12-27-2006, 03:55 PM

deeper the more east you go looks like... sol vista will win again!

vail loses?

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark

That's not true. You should be looking at WP and the Boat for the reach around. (I'm serious).

That is very true. But it depends on the track of the storm. GJT is worried that the I-70 corridor is going to be in the dry slot of this storm, which very much could happen.

**MakersTeleMark** · 12-27-2006, 04:00 PM

Vail always loses, except on Christmas Eve, and occasionally against the Red Wing All Stars.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 04:01 PM

Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark

Vail always loses, except on Christmas Eve, and occasionally against the Red Wing All Stars.

Just hope the trowal they are calling for develops and then the Gores should get some.

**cmsummit** · 12-27-2006, 04:04 PM

taken from the forecast discussion:
WRN SLP OF FRONT RANGE MTNS AND HI MTN VLYS
WILL RECEIVE ONLY LGT SNW ACCUMS FM THIS STORM.

big winners will be: Wolf Creek, Echo Mtn. & Eldora.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

taken from the forecast discussion:
WRN SLP OF FRONT RANGE MTNS AND HI MTN VLYS
WILL RECEIVE ONLY LGT SNW ACCUMS FM THIS STORM.

big winners will be: Wolf Creek, Echo Mtn. & Eldora.

And other places which shall remain nameless

**cmsummit** · 12-27-2006, 04:09 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Just hope the trowal they are calling for develops and then the Gores should get some.

dude, don't leave me hanging!

explanation please.

is that moisture ahead(east) of the low or behind and north of the low?

**lemon boy** · 12-27-2006, 04:11 PM

trough of warm air aloft.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 04:12 PM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

dude, don't leave me hanging!

explanation please.

A trowal is when a pool of warm air on the NW side of a closed low begins to circulate and eventually closes off its own circulation at the 500mb level (surface or near mountain top). Because there is going to be such a cold airmass in place, this interaction of warm moist air, and mountain top temperatures that are -15C to -21C, this sets up enough dynamics for dendritic snow growth (optimal snow growth) at the mountain top level. In sum, dumpag3.

Waiting on the afternoon GJT forecast to confirm where and if this trowal will set up. Though the mid afternoon update seemed to confine the trowal to the Park/Steamboat area

**summit** · 12-27-2006, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

taken from the forecast discussion:
WRN SLP OF FRONT RANGE MTNS AND HI MTN VLYS
WILL RECEIVE ONLY LGT SNW ACCUMS FM THIS STORM.

translation out of shorthand?

**cmsummit** · 12-27-2006, 05:03 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

A trowal is when a pool of warm air on the NW side of a closed low begins to circulate and eventually closes off its own circulation at the 500mb level (surface or near mountain top). Because there is going to be such a cold airmass in place, this interaction of warm moist air, and mountain top temperatures that are -15C to -21C, this sets up enough dynamics for dendritic snow growth (optimal snow growth) at the mountain top level. In sum, dumpag3.

Waiting on the afternoon GJT forecast to confirm where and if this trowal will set up. Though the mid afternoon update seemed to confine the trowal to the Park/Steamboat area

so the moisture available for this trowel(warm air trough) is coming from the low SE of it and from the east in the storm wrap around?

**cmsummit** · 12-27-2006, 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by Summit

translation out of shorthand?

western slope of front range mtns and high mtn valleys will receive only light snow accumulation from this storm.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

so the moisture available for this trowel(warm air trough) is coming from the low SE of it and from the east in the storm wrap around?

Well, I am uncertain of that. A trowal is on the backside of the digging low or NW of the closed low circulation. The moisture I guess is wrapped around the parent closed low, but I am uncertain if this system will tap Gulf Moisture or working with the Pac moisture it is entraining as it cuts off.

The GJT forecast had the dendritic growth limited to the Steamboat zone and didn't mention much regarding a trowal inthe afternoon discussion

**funkendrenchman** · 12-27-2006, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by Rontele

Well, I am uncertain of that. A trowal is on the backside of the digging low or NW of the closed low circulation. The moisture I guess is wrapped around the parent closed low, but I am uncertain if this system will tap Gulf Moisture or working with the Pac moisture it is entraining as it cuts off.

The GJT forecast had the dendritic growth limited to the Steamboat zone and didn't mention much regarding a trowal inthe afternoon discussion

How's it looking for our area? The last storm dumped between 15 and 20" on us.

**stupendous man** · 12-27-2006, 06:08 PM

My latest trowel has picked up a ton of bullshit from rontele and makerstelemark.
Make sure you dig six inches deep, fellas.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 06:13 PM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

How's it looking for our area? The last storm dumped between 15 and 20" on us.

This storm is in someways very similar to last weeks storm and different. The models are diverging a bit unlike last week's storm when they were aligned. I don't think the orographic component is favorable for the aspen zone, but GJT called for a strong cold front to move through tomorrow night. They are still under a WSwatch, so my guess would be a foot or so.

**rideit** · 12-27-2006, 06:45 PM

Where is Red Baron when we need him?

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 06:55 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Where is Red Baron when we need him?

In Chicago, jong

**rideit** · 12-27-2006, 07:23 PM

I forgot the internet doesn't go all the way to Chicago...silly broadband.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 07:36 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

I forgot the internet doesn't go all the way to Chicago...silly broadband.

It can't cross the Mississippi.

**Rontele** · 12-27-2006, 09:37 PM

and so it begins

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM MST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM MST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY THURSDAY AND QUICKLY BECOME
HEAVY WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
UP TO 30 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES.

MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.