Dear big fucker in the pacific...

[Rontele]

elevens,

after looking again, what we are seeing is a huge parent low that isn't going anywhere for the next week, it will spit out energy that will split over the coming days and you are right when I think a Rex Block develops towards the beginning of the next week.

[El Chupacabra]

Dear big fucker in the pacific,

I thought this thread was going to be your ode to SuPu.




(I guess it's better that I was wrong...)

[Cyber Cop]

dibs.




















4321

[elevens]

So does that mean if the pattern stays the same, the rockies (Utah) are shit out of luck for late next week - Dec 14th - 18th?

Weather geeks please respond......

elevens,

after looking again, what we are seeing is a huge parent low that isn't going anywhere for the next week, it will spit out energy that will split over the coming days and you are right when I think a Rex Block develops towards the beginning of the next week.

[Rontele]

So does that mean if the pattern stays the same, the rockies (Utah) are shit out of luck for late next week - Dec 14th - 18th?

Weather geeks please respond......

Well the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts both had equal chances of the trough developing over the intermountain west into next week along with equal chances of the high pressure off the coast connecting with the high pressure currently developing my James Bay Canada. The latter would mean less chances of snow, the former means snow. But just looking at the 3-7 models (which is only really the 12z GFS model run) there looks to be high pressure, but some baroclinicity under a NW flow...

Keep your fingers crossed and pay attention when the new 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts come out at 3pm Eastern today.

[ptavv]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet. From NWAC.

EXTENDED WEATHER SYNOPSIS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
After spreading heaviest precipitation into northern
California and southern Oregon early-mid Friday, the split
offshore trough is expected to slowly lift increasing
moisture northward over the area later Friday morning
through early Saturday. This generally light rain or snow,
heaviest in the south, should be accompanied by
substantially lowering freezing levels and increasing
ridgetop winds. While most precipitation should be received
as snow in the passes and along the east approaches to the
passes, some local freezing rain is possible on the west
approaches to the passes. As the trough moves east of the
Cascades early Saturday, decreasing and more showery
precipitation is likely along with a pass wind shift to
brief westerly. However, any break should be quite brief, as
the next splitting upper trough rapidly approaches the coast
late Saturday. Although heaviest associated precipitation
should be across Oregon and northern California Sunday, a
moderate northern part of the trough should still spread
increasing light to moderate rain or snow across the area
early-mid Sunday along with lowering freezing levels and
moderate ridgetop winds. Briefly decreasing and more showery
precipitation is expected to accompany the split trough late
Sunday, heaviest in the south, along with relatively low
freezing levels.

Extended forecast models continue to indicate a briefly
strengthening and consolidated west to southwesterly flow
should direct several stronger weather systems across the
area Monday into Tuesday of next week. This moderate to
heavy rain or snow should be accompanied by strong winds and
a brief but substantial rise in freezing levels mid-late
Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Gradually increasing clouds spreading northward early-mid
Friday. Light rain or snow spreading slowly northward mid-
late Friday with chance local freezing rain west approaches
to the passes and near Columbia Gorge outflow. Light showers
north, light rain or snow central and moderate rain or snow
south early Saturday, with light to moderate rain or snow
spreading to most areas mid-day. Light showers Saturday
afternoon, but increasing light to moderate rain or snow
redeveloping Saturday night and early Sunday. Light rain or
snow north and moderate rain or snow south mid-late Sunday,
decreasing briefly Sunday night. Increasing rain or snow
early Monday.

* SNOW LEVELS
6-8000 ft N, 7-9000 ft S early Friday
4-6000 ft N and S late Friday
3-5000 ft N and S early Saturday
2-4000 ft N, 3-5000 ft S late Saturday
3-5000 ft N and S early Sunday
2-4000 ft N and s late Sunday, except snow levels at the
surface Cascade passes and east slopes Friday and Friday
night, rising briefly to near free air levels early
Saturday. Snow levels lowering to near the surface again
mid-late Saturday through early Sunday, rising to free
air levels mid-late Sunday.

[filthyfrenchbum]

Oh Fuck. I'm heading on tuesday, but it looks like sunday will be required too. Fuck studying for exams.

[lemon boy]

http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_pac_loop.gif <--- 72hr jet forecast

[freshies]

I don't believe any of this. In fact, I am off to wash my car now (seriously), as I want it to be nice and clean for my drive back up to Truckee Friday morning. No snow here, move on now...

313 AM PST WED DEC 6 2006

...WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA FRIDAY EVENING
AND FRIDAY NIGHT..

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE ABRUPTLY THIS
WEEKEND...BECOMING MUCH MORE ACTIVE...WITH MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA BY
FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SECOND STORM WILL PUSH IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT LAKE
LEVEL. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS...CAUSING LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING SNOW.

PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL OVER THE SIERRA PASSES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONSIDER LEAVING EARLIER IN THE DAY TO AVOID
POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO YOUR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Cirquerider]

Freshies, didn't you have enough of posting forecasts last year for the Christmas "nukage" season?

Oh, and take your time on Friday. I suggest leaving late in the day. The weather should be beautiful, and of course there won't be a rush this week from the Bay Area since we don't have snow.

[freshies]

Freshies, didn't you have enough of posting forecasts last year for the Christmas "nukage" season?

if, in some small way, i could recreate what happened last December, I woud gladly do so

[taynton]

I'll be able to sneak up Sunday. Exams suck., but it looks like I got the lucky day to get off. /antijinx

I'm going to be bussing up from UBC. I haven't really met anyone yet of a similar level here so if anyone wouldn't mind an addition to their group please drop me a PM. I know a powder day is not a good time to be asking to join groups, but if I can't keep up, feel free to ditch. I'm an ex-racer so don't worry too much about being slowed down.

[willtheboarder]

Wish I could make it to Vancouver... sounds awesome.

[skier666]

Ahhhh...remember last year's Tahoe Nukeage thread? That was some good times..<ANTI JINX>

[kidwoo]

Ahhhh...remember last year's Tahoe Nukeage thread? That was some good times..<ANTI JINX>

Yeah I loved having to go out all day new year's eve and new year's day measuring flood waters. That was way better than skiing or drinking with friends.

If only every year could be that grand.

Hey freshies: borrow a convertible to drive up here and wear some daisy dukes and a halter top.

[avacadotoast]

Ahhhh...remember last year's Tahoe Nukeage thread? That was some good times..<ANTI JINX>

Not sure if it'll help or not but I still don't have any flood insurance

It's looking like not much for tahoe..6-10" Friday night and less for the splitter Saturday night...another do nothing splitter Tuesdayish....this just ain't gonna cut it (do I use an "anti jinx" here...not sure)

[Bring On The Snow]

does any one know how deep the low is? like in terms a millibars

[TBS]

Hey mother nature - stop sending snow to the PNW - they have already got enough.....

elevens

No such thing as enough snow

[JeffreyJim]

Car washed just washed.

[erica_z]

Dear big fuker inthe pacific,

olease come to mammoth, cause we nee some goddang precip.

TIA,
Erica

[freshies]

as promised, my car was washed today: i even sprung for the "delux wash"

[thebigeast]

high pressure in utah will push it north and or course the pnw and canada will reap all the benefits...again

[gonzo]

where the fuck is red baron? we are like sheep, adrift at sea, in need of a capitan...

[truth]

Here's the link you need to watch: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ay/fxus06.html

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST WED DEC 06 2006

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 12 - 16 2006

TODAYS COMPUTER MODEL RUNS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE 500-HPA LONG WAVES OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH
AMERICA SECTOR DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THEY ALSO SHOW REASONABLY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FALL INTO ONE OF TWO
GENERAL CLUSTERS WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED LATER AFTER A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES ANTICIPATED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THREE STRONG
UPPER TROUGHS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ARE
FORECAST ... ONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA ... ANOTHER OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN ON THE EAST ASIAN SIDE OF THE POLE ... AND THE THIRD SITUATED NEAR
ICELAND. IN ADDITION ... TWO ANOMALOUS RIDGES WILL ALSO BE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE
6-10 DAY FORECAST FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE FIRST RIDGE HAS ITS ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PROGGED JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY CANADA... WITH
PREDICTED DEPARTURES ANYWHERE BETWEEN +90 AND +200 METERS. THE SECOND RIDGE IS
MUCH WEAKER AND IS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR HAWAII. A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
WESTERLY JET IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BETWEEN THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH AND THE HAWAIIAN RIDGE. THE TWO GENERAL PATTERNS WHICH ARE INDICATED BY
TODAYS MODEL RUNS (AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER) BOTH HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON... AND
THAT IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST CLUSTER OF
SOLUTIONS CONNECTS THE HAWAIIAN AND JAMES BAY RIDGES WITH A BROAD AREA OF
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WHICH STRETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SECOND
CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS DEPICTS A CHANNEL OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH RESOLUTION
OPERATIONAL RUN ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. BOTH POSSIBILITIES ARE EQUALLY
LIKELY ACCORDING TO TODAYS RUNS. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES TRAVERSES
CANADA... WHILE THE MID- LATITUDE BRANCH CROSSES THE LOWER 48 STATES. MOST
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. IN ALASKA... TROUGHING IS PREDICTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE UPPER RIDGING COLLAPSES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.


THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ...THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...AND
THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION
TODAY.

THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET
AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND THE CPC
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CDC
PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION TODAY.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 20 2006:

THE ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE PREDICTING RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH
THE OFFICIAL MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THEY DO HOWEVER INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE ICELANDIC UPPER LOW. THE
OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS PREDICT SIMILARLY PHASED CIRCULATION FEATURES AS
THE ENSEMBLES BUT ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE. THE 0Z
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ALSO ANTICIPATES CONSIDERABLE PROGRESSION OF HIGHER
LATITUDE FEATURES SUCH AS THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH AND THE JAMES BAY RIDGE.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE ENTIRE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY
RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR DURING THIS WEEK 2 PERIOD. STORMY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE... AND THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK 2.


THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 21.

[elevens]

Here's the link you need to watch: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ay/fxus06.html

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST WED DEC 06 2006

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 12 - 16 2006

TODAYS COMPUTER MODEL RUNS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE 500-HPA LONG WAVES OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH
AMERICA SECTOR DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THEY ALSO SHOW REASONABLY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FALL INTO ONE OF TWO
GENERAL CLUSTERS WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED LATER AFTER A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES ANTICIPATED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THREE STRONG
UPPER TROUGHS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ARE
FORECAST ... ONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA ... ANOTHER OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN ON THE EAST ASIAN SIDE OF THE POLE ... AND THE THIRD SITUATED NEAR
ICELAND. IN ADDITION ... TWO ANOMALOUS RIDGES WILL ALSO BE MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE
6-10 DAY FORECAST FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE FIRST RIDGE HAS ITS ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PROGGED JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY CANADA... WITH
PREDICTED DEPARTURES ANYWHERE BETWEEN +90 AND +200 METERS. THE SECOND RIDGE IS
MUCH WEAKER AND IS PREDICTED TO BE NEAR HAWAII. A STRONGER THAN NORMAL
WESTERLY JET IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BETWEEN THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH AND THE HAWAIIAN RIDGE. THE TWO GENERAL PATTERNS WHICH ARE INDICATED BY
TODAYS MODEL RUNS (AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER) BOTH HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON... AND
THAT IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST CLUSTER OF
SOLUTIONS CONNECTS THE HAWAIIAN AND JAMES BAY RIDGES WITH A BROAD AREA OF
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WHICH STRETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SECOND
CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS DEPICTS A CHANNEL OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN STATES. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGH RESOLUTION
OPERATIONAL RUN ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN THEIR GFS COUNTERPARTS WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. BOTH POSSIBILITIES ARE EQUALLY
LIKELY ACCORDING TO TODAYS RUNS. THE POLAR BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES TRAVERSES
CANADA... WHILE THE MID- LATITUDE BRANCH CROSSES THE LOWER 48 STATES. MOST
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. IN ALASKA... TROUGHING IS PREDICTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE UPPER RIDGING COLLAPSES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.


THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ...THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...AND
THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION
TODAY.

THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET
AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND THE CPC
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CDC
PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION TODAY.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 14 - 20 2006:

THE ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE PREDICTING RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH
THE OFFICIAL MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ANTICIPATED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THEY DO HOWEVER INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE ICELANDIC UPPER LOW. THE
OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS PREDICT SIMILARLY PHASED CIRCULATION FEATURES AS
THE ENSEMBLES BUT ARE MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE. THE 0Z
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN ALSO ANTICIPATES CONSIDERABLE PROGRESSION OF HIGHER
LATITUDE FEATURES SUCH AS THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH AND THE JAMES BAY RIDGE.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE ENTIRE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY
RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC AIR DURING THIS WEEK 2 PERIOD. STORMY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE... AND THE EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK 2.


THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 21.

^^^^^^^^^^what he said^^^^^^

Redbaron - please help us none weather geeks. I leave for Utah in 7 days