SLC Dry Spell??

[vano]

Shit shit shit. Me be heading out to SLC for some early season skiing December 12 and I am not seeing the love from mother nature. No major precip forecast for the next 7 days, which takes us dangerously close to my Dec 12 arrival date. It would suck tremendously to fly out west for 5 days only to ski crappy 2 week old snow.

Someone lie to me and tell me how there is no way it won't snow by then cause SLC never goes thru 2 week long droughts.

[Egon]

stay home.

[vano]

stay home.

Stay home? You're not even from SLC. Not like im coming to Ohio to poach your secret pow stashes.

[Long Duck Dong]

From the local forecast discussion:

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

Hey, at least its a shred of hope for a brutha.

[Egon]

You're not even from SLC.

I moved.

Yep it looks bad, I'll pm my address so you can send me the tickets.

[Bring On The Snow]

sucks to be u

and everyone who skis in utah

[upallnight]

early season everywhere is always a risky proposition...but that's probably why you could get cheaper flights & lodging than prime-time.

[grinder]

What are you talking about!?!?! Park City has a sick park! You can demo a pair of snow blades and getcher GAME on! Stop in to the pub for some 3.2 and get drink up!

[vano]

Just my fucking luck.

I am open to driving 7-8 hours in any direction to get some freshies, so I am hoping at least the Ghee or western CO will get something.

[upallnight]

Just my fucking luck.

I am open to driving 7-8 hours in any direction to get some freshies, so I am hoping at least the Ghee or western CO will get something.

well.... the 12th is still quite far away but we are hurting somewhat up here (still early so not to worry).

with a 7-8h drive you could basically get most anywhere you need to....nearly tahoe, idaho, wyoming, MT, CO....maybe even NM? PNW seems like your best bet but that's a tad far.

early season is usually just that, but at least you are flexible.

[mc_roon]

have faith. we had a urll bonfire and gave him a virgin last nite. he should be happy

[mrkristofo]

i don't know if i should even suggest this, but there's still some goods to be had if you're up to par on your BC skills....we're amidst an inversion right now that's rotting out the snow in-bounds and at lower elev's. the resorts are still blowin' like mad, but it didn't get below freezing last night for long at Alta. so there's still some cover at the resorts, but the conditions will be less than utah-esque.

The long range models are pretty inconsistent run to run out to the 11th and beyond, but there's one common thread: this ridge is going nowhere any time soon. The latest GFS offers some moisture and cold air hitting the Pac NW around the 11th, but I just wouldn't put any money on it yet. But for us to not get any snow by the 19th? C'mon....it's the Wasatch. And we have this huge friggin lake, with lots of sun beating down on it, and it's early season meaning it still holds a lot of energy from the summer. The GSL mean temp is estimated at 3.4?C on the 12th, with a potent jet streak on the pacific coast pushing temps at 700MB of -12?C into norcal and backed with -20?C temps off the coast. Now, if this trough pushes inland, the temperature differential (~23?C) will be sufficient for lake effect (only ~15-18?C needed) snow. Now, take that with a grain of salt...because epic lake effect snows in LCC rely on a lot more than just cold air blowing over it like convergence of the mountain winds in the SLC valley, predominantly NNW flow, sufficient instability in the atmosphere, etc; and this is at the very end of a forecast model that generally neglects local orographics and has been inconsistent over the past few runs as to what will happen not only that far out but within the next 72h. In other words, thanks for reading all that, hopefully you learned a little somethin somethin, but the final point is it's too far away for anyone to know shit.

Now, here's your silver lining: you're going to be coming in for a week. So, if I were you, I'd do just what all of us are doing: kick back, relax, and have confidence that Utah will provide.

Edit: send me a PM in a few days if you want and I'll give you an update. Not that I want you planning your vacation around me, but I watch the weather closely (pretty much every model run) and deal with the mountain meteo peeps in the valley daily.

[vano]

i don't know if i should even suggest this, but there's still some goods to be had if you're up to par on your BC skills....we're amidst an inversion right now that's rotting out the snow in-bounds and at lower elev's. the resorts are still blowin' like mad, but it didn't get below freezing last night for long at Alta. so there's still some cover at the resorts, but the conditions will be less than utah-esque.

The long range models are pretty inconsistent run to run out to the 11th and beyond, but there's one common thread: this ridge is going nowhere any time soon. The latest GFS offers some moisture and cold air hitting the Pac NW around the 11th, but I just wouldn't put any money on it yet. But for us to not get any snow by the 19th? C'mon....it's the Wasatch. And we have this huge friggin lake, with lots of sun beating down on it, and it's early season meaning it still holds a lot of energy from the summer. The GSL mean temp is estimated at 3.4?C on the 12th, with a potent jet streak on the pacific coast pushing temps at 700MB of -12?C into norcal and backed with -20?C temps off the coast. Now, if this trough pushes inland, the temperature differential (~23?C) will be sufficient for lake effect (only ~15-18?C needed) snow. Now, take that with a grain of salt...because epic lake effect snows in LCC rely on a lot more than just cold air blowing over it like convergence of the mountain winds in the SLC valley, predominantly NNW flow, sufficient instability in the atmosphere, etc; and this is at the very end of a forecast model that generally neglects local orographics and has been inconsistent over the past few runs as to what will happen not only that far out but within the next 72h. In other words, thanks for reading all that, hopefully you learned a little somethin somethin, but the final point is it's too far away for anyone to know shit.

Now, here's your silver lining: you're going to be coming in for a week. So, if I were you, I'd do just what all of us are doing: kick back, relax, and have confidence that Utah will provide.

Edit: send me a PM in a few days if you want and I'll give you an update. Not that I want you planning your vacation around me, but I watch the weather closely (pretty much every model run) and deal with the mountain meteo peeps in the valley daily.

Thanks dude, very informative. My understanding of snow and climate in SLC is nowhere near as good as yours, but I was also thinking that if it doesn't snow by the 17th of Dec (my last day skiing) it will have been 20 days without any snow at Alta - pretty insane dry spell. Keeping fingers crossed and I will PM you late this week for an update. Thanks.

[upallnight]

urll bonfire

who's that? some god of the internet?

[kidwoo]

who's that? some god of the internet?

That's that stupid tv show with Jason Lee.

You burn moustaches in a fire and then PBR shows up.

[Crass3000]

It would suck tremendously to fly out west for 5 days only to ski crappy 2 week old snow.

I feel your pain. Same thing happened to me last year in Utah. It must have been payback for the 5 foot storm I got lucky to hit the year before.

[kneedropper]

Ok, time to fess up.

I think I may be personally responsible for the current lack of snow in California and the dry weeks in Utah and Colorado. You see, I just moved this fall from Colorado to Southern California. So what happens, epic early season Colorado conditions and no snow or decent winter swell in Cali. But wait, the jinxing continues. We've been planning an extended trip to Utah and Colorado for about a month. We were scheduled to hit Utah this weekend and what do you know.... dry for over a week. To add insult to injury, the first major swell of the winter season is arriving on Saturday morning..... the day I leave.

Thought I'd clear my conscience. Maybe I need to kill a chicken or something.

[StuntCok]

Never fear, I am going to SLC on the 13th to the 19th, am flying somwhere around 20 hours to get there and I have brand new ARGs. Fingers crossed.....

[BigMountainStyle]

I'm flying in all the way from Philly this friday, and just hoping this turns into something:

A ridge of high pressure will build across the canyons late tonight through Thursday, resulting in light winds and warm temperatures. This ridge will shift east friday...allowing for strengthening southerly winds. A weak storm system will brush the area Saturday, followed by another weak system Sunday

Might turn into a few inches...either way like i always say, it's still skiing!

[William Murderface]

I asked the missonaries to pray for snow.

We'll see.

[mrkristofo]

well I hope you're happy. short term forecast is calling for widespread moisture entering the area tomorrow before a warm front. might see a couple inches from this. Thursday will be bringing in a bit more moisture though we could be looking at snow showers vs snow since it's gonna be a tad warmer...what's undisputed is the massive cold front coming for this weekend. the when and how are what's in question. As of right now, the GFS says the cold air will begin to arrive friday evening with some moisture and coolers temps (-8C down from -4C) at the ridgetops. By that time saturday they've dropped to -8C, and by sunday evening -16C with a quite a bit of moisture leading in to sunday, and staying there through monday with the even colder (-20?C airmass moves in aloft). for those of you wondering "wtf -20C". then GFS sets up for strong westerlies over the NW, maybe pushing something into utah later in teh week. who knows. that's all I do.

[mc_roon]

im not happy

[Hutch]

im not happy

me either. wtf?

[mc_roon]

judging by the current weather predictions, it could go either way; 1" to 1' or more depending on which way the system moves. Now is the time to start praying.

[soul_skier]

wtf weather gods, wtf. mc_roon, i'm feeling road trip to jackson if things don't shape up