AVALUATOR - risk assesment product for novice backcountry users

[LeeLau]

AVALUATOR - risk assesment product for novice backcountry users - My notes - all errors and omissions are mine

Lecture Number 2 in Public Lecture series http://www.sfu.ca/cnhr/avalanche/publiclecture.htm
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Dr. Pascal Haegeli

Avisualanche Consulting

School for Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University

Canada

The Avaluator: A Canadian rule-based avalanche decision support tool for amateur recreationists

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More info here http://www.avalanche.ca/default.aspx...58,3,Documents

- Target audience "the not all that experienced backcountry traveller", "novice users".

- Problem: conventional books bury one is a shopping list of factors to consider in assessing risk. Gives examples of books by Jamieson and McClung/Scharer. Very comprehensive but perhaps information overload for novice users

- Factors that conventional texts use are grouped in categories of (1) terrain; (2) snow (3) weather and (4) human

- Avaluator is a decision-based tool. Purpose is to show similarity of the present situation to situation existing where past accidents occur. Gives user tools to identify and assess present situation. Purpose is NOT to predict likelihood of avalanches.

- Avaluator looks at only terrain, snow and weather factors and ignores human factors.

Avaluator Criteria

1. Trip Planning
2. Identifying Avalanche Terrain
3. Slope Evaluation
4. Good Travel Habits

TRIP PLANNING


1. First thing to do; look at danger rating from av forecast

2. Second thing to do; look at terrain rating (new criteria from Parks Canada

- contrast with Europe where stress is on slope angle. The Parks criteria also looks at topography and exposure

- see new pretty cool website information at CAA site - Online Trip Planning Tool which contains terrain rating for more common trips. NOTE - not meant to be an online guidebook.



IDENTIFYING AVALANCHE TERRAIN

- Know what it is
- Make a conscious decision to enter it after knowing what it is

SLOPE EVALUATION


Seven "Clues" from Ian McCammon (ALTTRUP)

1. Avalanches - any recent ones occured. Any presently occurring

2. Loading - any wind loading

3. Thaw Instability - any sudden temp increases causing melting or isothermal snow

4. Terrain Trap - are you in one

5 Rating - what is danger rating

6 Unstable Snow - crack, whumpfs etc

7 Path - signs of previous avs, are you in a obvious path?

The more clues are present the higher the recommended caution

The less clue are present the lower the recommended caution

Avaluator card presents go/no go conditions based on number of "clues" present.

For example if Danger is MODERATE, Terrain is COMPLEX, and 5 Clues are present then perhaps recommendation is NO GO.

If DANGER is CONSIDERABLE, Terrain is SIMPLE; and only 2 Clues are present then perhaps recommendation is GO.


GOOD TRAVEL HABITS

Standard litany and list - 1 at a time on suspect slopes etc.

[jfost]

cool!

Thank you for posting this up Lee

[PNWbrit]

Thanks Lee

[rossibandit]

Pretty good summary of the lecture that was here Vancouver last night.

The only other impression that I received at the lecture was that most of the crowd is not in favor of accessing the BC via sled.

[nesta]

Thanks for posting this Lee. On paper seems very thorough from what I've read about it. But I've yet to hear how much it costs (or is it free?), and I'm not convinced that everybody's going to use it. It's fairly detailed, and let's face it, people don't even heed the danger ratings they have now, let alone factor in a whole bunch of other stuff like the ITES and then go ski backcountry using this tool on a consistent basis. As a teaching tool I think it's going to be great, and I understand that it will be an integral part of the AST 1 & 2 curriculum.

[Ripzalot]

some stickers with ALTTRUP would be a good idea. or maybe i'll just write it with a black sharpie on my gloves.

good info. thanks!

[LeeLau]

Thanks for posting this Lee. On paper seems very thorough from what I've read about it. But I've yet to hear how much it costs (or is it free?), and I'm not convinced that everybody's going to use it. It's fairly detailed, and let's face it, people don't even heed the danger ratings they have now, let alone factor in a whole bunch of other stuff like the ITES and then go ski backcountry using this tool on a consistent basis. As a teaching tool I think it's going to be great, and I understand that it will be an integral part of the AST 1 & 2 curriculum.

$10 for the card and a 30 page booklet.

Provided its taught well it can be a good tool for beginners to help sort through all that mass of information they get deluged with on AST 1 and 2. For people who don't take any sort of class then it might be too complicated - hard enough to get anyone to even read and understand danger ratings

Got a few minor quibbles with some of the terrain ratings on the Online Trip Planner on the CAA site but Im sure that will be refined as time goes by.

[eirikainersharp]

The book is available at MEC I believer. People were generally pretty stoked on Pascal's product down as the ISSW too. It looks simple to use and easy to understand. Hopefully it will keep some people out of trouble.

Lee what are your issues with the terrain ratings?

[eirikainersharp]

Did you catch Jurg's lecture too?

[LeeLau]

Here's my comments on Jurg;s lecture:

I didn't take as many notes because, for me, it was nothing especially new

Free lecture: Avalanche communication to public

http://www.sfu.ca/cnhr/avalanche/publiclecture.htm

Lecture 1

Dr. Jürg Schweizer

Senior Research Scientist

Swiss Federal Insitute for Snow and Avalanche Research

Switzerland

Snow avalanche hazard - a Swiss perspective

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- Talked about av awareness in residential areas (Davos)

- Av and SAR under jurisdiction of forest service

- In SUI, resid fatalities decreased recent years - attributed to both passive and active measures

- Overall fatalities steady because rec fatalities increased
(90% fatalities from skier/snowboarder/climbers)
(90% caused by victim or other person in group)

- Over last 5 years fatalities avg (Moving avg??) SUI 24 US 25 CA 12

- SUI fatalities "majority" are b/c

- Lots of forecasts! National evening forecast, 7 regional morning forecasts, 6 employed forecasters, 75 manned obs stations; 100 automatic obs stations; 50 observors; 100 profilers

- Producing av educ website www.whiterisk.ch; hard to compete with "entertainment value" of other films and clips that show avalanches and perhaps downplay the risk

- snowmobiling and heliskiing restricted in SUI so no meaningful numbers

[LeeLau]

The book is available at MEC I believer. People were generally pretty stoked on Pascal's product down as the ISSW too. It looks simple to use and easy to understand. Hopefully it will keep some people out of trouble.

Lee what are your issues with the terrain ratings?

Basically i disagree with some of the ratings. I'm not too surprised I disagree because the ratings are inherently subjective. This could be because I'm not the target audience and perhaps my understanding of the Parks canada rating systems aren't too good.

eg

Cerise Creek to Keith's Hut Challenging Duffy Lake

Zoa Peak Challenging

[eirikainersharp]

For anybody who is intrested the online trip planner Lee Lau is talking about is found at http://www.thesoftwareranch.com/avaluator/

Lee I don't know if i agree with you. If we look at the terrain scale:

Simple Exposure to long angle or primarily forested terrain. Some forest openings may involve the runout zones of infrequent avalanches. Many options to reduce or eliminate exposure. No glacier travel.

Chalenging Exposure to well defined avalanche paths, starting zones or terrain traps; options exist to reduce or eliminate exposure with careful routefinding. Glacier travel is straightforward but crevasse hazard may exist.

Complex Exposure to multiple overlapping avalanche paths or large expanses of steep, open terrain; multiple avalanche starting zones or terrain traps below; minial options to reduce exposure. Complicated glacier travel with extensive crevasse bands or icefalls.

If you follow the guidlines there really isn't that much room for subjectivity in this scale.

The trail into Kieths hut definatley falls into the chalenging terrain then. Skining in you are exposed to a couple of bigger slide paths from the ridge on the left. Also if there was enough snow the sides of the creek definitley have the possiblity to release a slab. Breaking trail through that area following the standard approach takes people right through that terrain trap. There is actually a little bit to think about there, although admittedly we don't. Zoa peak has bigger terrain and is steaper but there are numerous options for safe routes on the top, you are never forced in serious avalanche terrain.

I think that this is one of the real strengths of this product. Having it in your pack is going to remind people to continuously take stock of the situation they are in. This is usefull even for the more experienced backcountry user traveling in familiar terrain. For us its when we run on auto pilot that we run the risk of getting in trouble.

Although I probably won't buy a book I did grab a card from Pascal when I last saw him and plan on having it in the pocket of my jacket whenever I go touring this season.

[eirikainersharp]

http://www.avalanche.ca/default.aspx...58,3,Documents for a description with pics of the terrain rating scale

http://www.pc.gc.ca/pn-np/ab/banff/visit/visit7a1_E.asp descripes the parks rating system

[eirikainersharp]

Pascal's report on the avaluator: http://www.avisualanche.ca/downloads...geliOthers.pdf

[LeeLau]

sorry erik . Was away from comp so didn't respond _ i think I see the point a bit better. Maybe because I know that terrain so well i don't see it as challenging which is the human factor i suppose