Long Range Winter Outlooks...

[puma]

Well, I'm from the Pacific Northwest, and this does not look good. El Nino doesn't usually favor us...Time to travel this winter!!! That's a good thing I suppose!!!

Anyway, you've probably seen it, but check the following. My small narrative is based on the PNW perspective:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...churchill.html



Early season(Oct-Dec):

Looks like slightly above average temps and below average precip:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off02_temp.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off01_prcp.gif



WinterJan-Mar)

Looks like well above average temps and well below average precip:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off04_temp.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off04_prcp.gif



Spring looks no better.

[Hutch]

Maybe a good year for Flagstaff and Taos?


This is Dec- Jan - Feb precip.

[Bring On The Snow]

As far as im concered you cant trust a forecast over 3-5days
But mayeb its just denial cuz im from the pnw as well(whistler to be specific) and those forecasts dont look good.

[FigureEleven]

Long range forecasts are a crock of shit... and the El Nino season of 1998-99 was the best thing that ever happened to the PNW.

[Chainsaw_Willie]

^ true, but last year's mild La Nina seemed to work out pretty well, too.

[Fatty]

B means "Blizzards all the time", Right?

[skiing-in-jackson]

Long range forecasts are a crock of shit...

I agree.

I would love to see some accountability studies for the "long range" forecasts in this (or any) area.

Some grad student posting st!t on the net for his thesis means little to me.

I always say, "Dress for cold; Pray for snow"

[Bring On The Snow]

I always say, "Dress for cold; Pray for snow"

Amen to that

[Tin Woodsman]

I agree.

I would love to see some accountability studies for the "long range" forecasts in this (or any) area.

Some grad student posting st!t on the net for his thesis means little to me.

I always say, "Dress for cold; Pray for snow"

That's not exactly the case anymore. There have been some important advances in the study of various cycles, indeces, and phenomena that correlate with certain types of weather. Obviously there's a limit to how accurate we'll be able to get, but by and large they can already predict with reasonable certainty how a winter will generally turn out from a big picture perspective. That said, I would advise waiting until mid-October before you start buying any of the snake oil people are trying to sell.

In particular, check out the views of the pro meteorologists on this board - many know their shit fo shizzle:

Eastern US Wx

Most of their winter forecasts will come out in the middle to end of October.

[couloirman]

B means "Blizzards all the time", Right?

No, it means "bottomless snow for all!"

[puma]

I would love to see some accountability studies for the "long range" forecasts in this (or any) area.

Some grad student posting st!t on the net for his thesis means little to me.

I would love to see that also. Has anyone ever seen analysis of how accurate these prediction models are? It seems everyone is all over them before the fact, but after the season is over, does anyone go back and look at these saved charts VS. what actually happened?

I think that when the outlook is good for a region, everyone jumps on as this is going to be the best season ever. When the outlook is crap, everyone says that these forecasts are crap, and are inverse indicators, cause remember that year back in 75...well, that was a great year...

(I'll admit, I am excatly as described above...these forecasts are WRONG for the PNW...It's going to be a stellar year, cause I can just feel it...

These are not grad student charts that I quoted...

I think I'm going to go check out that Eastern weather forum link in this thread. Looks like a bunch of weather buggs chatting...that's always good for ANOTHER finger in the wind...

[Buster Highmen]

Long range forecasts are a crock of shit... and the El Nino season of 1998-99 was the best thing that ever happened to the PNW.

I'd better check the facts, but I'd thought that 98-99 was a weak La Nina year. And oh lawdeee, did it wwwrrrrooooookkkkkkk.

[milkman]

The past 3 El Nino's, both strong and weak, have been great snow years for the PNW (at least they've been great at Whistler). '97/'98 was the last big one I think and the last little one was '02/03....Both were at least normal snow years....

[irul&ublo]

B means "Blizzards all the time", Right?

In this instance, I think it means "butt-fucked"