Bastardi Preliminary Forecast winter 06-07

[snowsprite]

Take it w/ a grain of salt...I saw it on Kzone and posting here. Anyone know if it's legit? I hope so, for the EC's sake!
Sprite

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AccuWeather.com Preliminary Winter OutlookUpdated: Tuesday, September 19, 2006 1:37 PMEl Niño's Influence Points to Milder Start, Colder End Than Normal for Heating-Oil-Dependent Northeast

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi predicts that the coming winter is shaping up to be quite different than last year's. The El Niño pattern that has noticeably impacted the 2006 hurricane season will lead to colder temperatures for the northeastern U.S. and Midwest, and a milder winter for the West Coast.

As outlined in Bastardi's preliminary seasonal outlook - the full 2006-2007 AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast will be released in mid-October - the winter in the Northeast and Midwest is expected to begin mild before turning significantly colder in January and February as cold air pours down from Canada. Overall, New York City and Boston are expected to average slightly below normal for the three-month winter period of December through February. The winter along the East Coast and Gulf Coast will be marked by stormy weather, because of the pattern created by the El Niño that formed this summer and was identified by Bastardi in the late spring.

El Niño and the East Coast Winter

An El Niño - a cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters - directs strong wind currents that tend to hinder hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin during the summer, and lead to a more active southern jet stream in the winter, which creates a wetter-than-normal pattern for the South and Southeast U.S. This precipitation works its way up the East Coast, bringing more storms to the region. "While the East Coast will most likely experience more precipitation, it is too early to tell whether the majority of this precipitation will be in the form of r*in or snow," said Bastardi. "Timing will be the key in the major cities of the East Coast. Cold air from the north arriving too early or too late would lead to more r*in and less snow."

Added Bastardi, "Given the overall pattern and the water temperature profile we expect, the region will likely see one or two major Nor'easters."

Winter's Effect on Energy Prices

"While temperatures in the Northeast will start out warmer than normal, a shift to colder weather during the final two months of winter will result in slightly below normal temperatures for the three-month period. This will lead to consumers needing more heating oil or natural gas than they did during last year's exceptionally mild winter," said AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast Operations Ken Reeves. "Chicago, which is dependent on natural gas heat, experienced relatively warm winters the past few years, and we expect this pattern to change this year. The last time we had an El Niño - the winter of 2002-2003 - Chicago had to contend with slightly colder-than-average temperatures."

"That said," added Reeves, "in most areas, we do not expect sustained exceptionally extreme temperatures, so energy prices will likely react more to economic and political conditions than to meteorological ones this winter."

Winter in the Rockies and the West Coast

As with previous El Niño years, a large high-pressure system will likely sit over the Rockies this winter, which will keep conditions relatively drier and warmer than normal. "Skiers and ski resort operators in the Rockies may not be pleased by the prospect of less snow this winter," said Reeves. "Of potentially greater impact, though, will be the effects that a drier winter will have on areas in the region that rely on waters that come from the melting snow pack. With the possibility of less snow this winter, there could be less water available next year."

As for the West Coast, Bastardi forecasts that temperatures will be above average across much of the region.

[Buster Highmen]

Historically, el Ninos have favored snowpack in AZ/NM/SWCO I thought.

[The AD]

Bastardi is a great name for a weather guy.

[PacRimRider1]

I stopped passing by accuweather a long time ago. 15 day forcasts are for only the most desperate of people. My doubts of Bastardi's forcast may or may not have something to do with the fact that I live in the west.

[AdironRider]

I for one am pumped by the sounds of this! The rest of you, probably not so much.

[mrryde]

accuweather cant get a 3 day forecast correct let alone predict seasonal snowpack

[cj001f]

Historically, el Ninos have favored snowpack in AZ/NM/SWCO I thought.

+ Central & SoCal

woohoo! Sandbars, Swell and (maybe local snow) woohoo!

[pointedem]

last time utah had a strong el nino was 97-98 and it was a better then average winter.

I was not here then, but peeps that were told me.

[cmsummit]

Historically, el Ninos have favored snowpack in AZ/NM/SWCO I thought.

that's what I thought too.

[cmsummit]

last time utah had a strong el nino was 97-98 and it was a better then average winter.

that was a good year for CO as well. Kind of a slow start snow-wise, but Feb/Mar/Apr was good with some large dumps.

[BushwackerinPA]

Some simple facts last albeit weak el nino was 03-04. this year el nino is suppose to be roughly the same strenght.

Snowbird got 530 inches of snow that year.
http://www.snowbird.com/about/pressc...hp?release=145

So yeah I think we wil be ok in the rockies.

[FrankZappa]

Historically, el Ninos have favored snowpack in AZ/NM/SWCO I thought.

I can tell my winter will be spent south of a line between the CO Wasatch and the UT Wasatch.
Thats a lotta goods w/n 3 hours.

[SLAYER]

An average winter in the Wasatch is an epic year most other places. Never have been concerned about the prognosticators preseason predictions since it never really affects us here. The wonderful "Lake Effect" seems to always be the X factor for us.

[Rontele]

While this is all fine and dandy, I would caution you that ENSO events such as El Nino are not determinative of what will happen in the winter. We also need to pay attention to the long scale Rossby Waves (frequency) as well as whether there is a strong Aluetian Low and its relationship to the Siberian anticyclone. While all of these factors interrelate to determine winter weather in the lower 48s, it is too early to tell when and how frequent the major Rossby waves will set up and how they interact with the ENSO event.

[cmsummit]

While this is all fine and dandy, I would caution you that ENSO events such as El Nino are not determinative of what will happen in the winter. We also need to pay attention to the long scale Rossby Waves (frequency) as well as whether there is a strong Aluetian Low and its relationship to the Siberian anticyclone. While all of these factors interrelate to determine winter weather in the lower 48s, it is too early to tell when and how frequent the major Rossby waves will set up and how they interact with the ENSO event.

took the words right out of my mouth.

[Rontele]

took the words right out of my mouth.

It was written to suggest that there are other factors that are outcome determinative of winter weather.

Believe me, when I saw that colorado would be dry, I was bummed and wanted to beef the case that El Nino is not the sole determining factor.

I am also a weather NERD.

[FrankZappa]

Hey! Thanks a lot Ronny. Way to kill my buzz.

I still prefer the law of averages... The south side is w-a-y over due. As in it's got some catching up to do.

[Rontele]

Hey! Thanks a lot Ronny. Way to kill my buzz.

I still prefer the law of averages... The south side is w-a-y over due. As in it's got some catching up to do.

You did catch up...

This summer...

With Rain!

[FrankZappa]

You did catch up...

This summer...

With Rain!

Yeah. But thats only YTD not over the long(er) term - like 10-20 year - cycles.

I'm clingin' to this buzz here.

[Rontele]

hang on baby, hang on

As long as the L this winter do not constant cut off and travel far south of the CO/NM border both NCo and SCo will do well. Ideally, we want a cut off low to track along the NM/CO border so you guys get some on the SW flow then as the trough axis passes, NCo gets the wraparound...

[Buster Highmen]

For those of us in the PNW, don't forget the PDO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation:

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/



In the BIG picture, we're heading into a 20-30 year cool period. Cue the Miles Davis.

[Tin Woodsman]

At this point, Bastardi is basically a joke. He may be a fine meteorologist but the only accuracy associated with his seasonal forecasts is that you can be 100% positive he will predict cold and snow for the Northeast. It sells susbscriptions to his $20/month service. I think he's used the 95-96 season as an analog three or four times in the last decade (for those who don't know, that was a historically snowy winter for the Northeast corridor). It's also too early - I would encourage you to tune out most of the hacks who make their seasonal forecasts at any point prior to mid-October.

All that said, it is encouraging (for the EC) that we're looking at a weak el Nino, as that is a positive factor for potential big snows here. But as Rontele wisely cautioned, there are so many other factors at play, it's best not to focus on one.

[irul&ublo]

Bastardi is a great name for a weather guy.

He's got a cousin named Sonofabitch.