Real Estate Crash thread

[liv2ski]

I have lived in my home 40 years now and walk everywhere on the Island, so I know all the sales. Old homes that finally sell (after being off the market forever) are leveled and rebuilt. Oddly, the homes that sell the most often are homes that were sold in the last 5 years. Over and over again. I am guessing 1) once they have their $500k equity they bounce to stay tax free or 2) they ask themselves why did we pay $3.5M for a home on a 50X145 lot? We are out of here. An interesting dynamic here and so much continuous building it is nutz.

[4matic]

40 years of declining interest rates and fed asset manipulation have made the selfish boomers feel like geniuses with their overpriced rotting boards and drywall. Demographics are a huge headwind for housing prices. Airbnb occupancy is down 50% yoy. Colorado inventory for sale is 30% higher than anytime in the last ten years. Other than pandemic low household formation is at least a 5 year low.

“If the trend continued, the projections show household growth between 2035-2045 would decline to just 5.1 million, which would be the lowest of any decade in the last 100 years. These projections are based on immigration levels remaining similar to those of the past three decades.”

Why do you think the Realtor in Chief and his Realtor shill Pulte are bashing the Fed? They want (need) the asset pump to continue. Boomers always win

[4matic]

Household growth does not mean population growth. Currently around 7k boomers die every day and that number is expected to increase to 10k. Boomers hold a disproportionate amount of SFR so you have declining household formation and increasing mortality amongst the largest holders of housing.

[nickwm21]

That was certainly the leading theory for the next big RE correction… The boomers sell / die / move to assisted living, glut of supply, etc…

That was circulating pre-Covid, pre-WFH, pre-7%apr… I don’t know how valid that theory is now.

There is a massive amount of 3500sf Shea spec’s in the 55+ communities 45min outside of Pheonix & Orlando - Does Gen X want those? I kinda don’t think so…


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[byates1]

4matic dropping bars yo

[ötzi]

At least 10 years ago people were predicting resort property would crash because of Boomers aging out of it.

[Dantheman]

There is a massive amount of 3500sf Shea spec’s in the 55+ communities 45min outside of Pheonix & Orlando - Does Gen X want those? I kinda don’t think so…

Never underestimate people's capacity to become their parents.

[4matic]

Change happens fast then all of a sudden:

“Inventories of Homes for Sale in Big California Markets Jump to Highest in Years, Days on the Market Soar, Demand Withered.”

It’s not that sellers are suddenly putting huge numbers of homes on the market; they’re not. But what is on the market doesn’t sell because prices, which exploded during the pandemic, are now too high, and demand at those too-high prices has withered. One of the most fundamental economic principles – demand destruction by too-high prices – has set in.

Active listings have surged because demand has withered, and despite the surging trend by sellers to pull their properties off the market, as realtor.com had put it, “in frustration” because they can’t get the prices they’d been dreaming about.

One of the measures for demand, pending sales of existing homes in the West plunged by 38% in May compared to May 2019, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. April pending sales had been the lowest since at least 2011, the extent of the data.”

[yeahman]

It's a good summary of what's going on. With three more years of Trump tariff wars and uncertainty ahead of us, I think the delisters are fooling themselves.

https://www.realtor.com/research/june-2025-data/

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[Dantheman]

Change happens fast then all of a sudden:

Wait, wut?

[Bunion 2020]

Yogi Berra....

[Shredhead]

I've always enjoyed investing in RE, a lot more than equities. But it does take more work.

[Rideski]

Wherever you go there you are.

[4matic]

Denver rents are getting really soft

[4matic]

First time home buyers lowest percentage in recorded history as well as age of first time buyers. Boomers trading homes.

[liv2ski]

Our first home cost was twice our annual gross incomes. Incomes have obviously not kept up to home prices hence the lack of younger people being able to buy.
Pay people a living fucking wage.

[byates1]

Or stop crying about reality. In my industry a burger would be 120$ to afford your crybaby living wage. Stfu

[skaredshtles]

Our first home cost was twice our annual gross incomes. Incomes have obviously not kept up to home prices hence the lack of younger people being able to buy. Pay people a living fucking wage.

GOP:

[Name Redacted]

Or stop crying about reality. In my industry a burger would be 120$ to afford your crybaby living wage. Stfu

You are in the burger industry? Do you know Ronald?

[Bunion 2020]

Nah, he is the Hamburglar.

[nickwm21]

Our first home cost was twice our annual gross incomes. Incomes have obviously not kept up to home prices hence the lack of younger people being able to buy.
Pay people a living fucking wage.

People need to be paid a living wage…

But the housing cost issue is a supply issue.

Build more.

Nimby zoning + modern fire and energy code + litigious condo/apartment construction quality laws = stacked flats and other 4-12 unit apartment/condo designs are extinct.

Reverse those conditions (carefully) and open up the market so small business developers, designers, and contractors can build actually affordable housing - stacked flats and other simple 4-12 unit buildings in residential neighborhoods.


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[4matic]

There is no housing shortage. Prices are just too high. Record numbers of expired listings as failed sellers ponder becoming erstwhile landlords.

They’re might be a shortage of affordable housing based on median wages but there is no shelter shortage.

Nothing solves high prices like high prices. Another spike in long term rates should do it.

[4matic]

The cyclical of California RE inventory shows a peak around this time of year every year. It’s going to be interesting to see sales and inventory data through the end of this year. How desperate will sellers get?

[J. Barron DeJong]

If you are including California in your statement that there is no housing shortage, I am going to have to disagree with you.

[4matic]

[emoji638]][emoji640][emoji639]][emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]If you are including California in your statement that there is no housing shortage, I am going to have to disagree with you.

Why? There’s plenty of houses for sale and new multi family all over.