Real Estate Crash thread

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

As said other times in this thread: Tons of people moved to Austin during covid not realizing it's 120 degrees like half the year so they are bouncing.

[yeahman]

As said other times in this thread: Tons of people moved to Austin during covid not realizing it's 120 degrees like half the year so they are bouncing.

I was in the ERA office in Bozeman today because my wife has some art on display there, and the realtor working told me there are 1,200 vacant LTRs in town right now. Is that true?

[J. Barron DeJong]

As said other times in this thread: Tons of people moved to Austin during covid not realizing it's 120 degrees like half the year so they are bouncing.

As said other times in this threas, Austins population is still growing.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-m...tin/population

[SKIP IN7RO]

Zillow is showing 991 rentals in Bozeman.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Started to type this out and I guess I never hit post. Yeah IDK about that 1200 vacant LTRs being super accurate, but there is no way around the fact that there is a shitload of vacancy right now. I showed 3 vacant houses in Belgrade last week.

So many property owners have so much equity and other income that they don't even want to bother renting unless it's a stupid per month or nightly rate. Many literally paid 1/3 or less of the current perceived value of the property. So many are so flush that they would rather just pay the low tax and keep the heat at 55* and leave it empty vs dealing with managing themselves or with a property manager. It's nuts obviously. One of my best friends is needing to find a new rental and it's brutal. Yes, rents have come down a bit, but it's still too damn high.

The issue from a buyer's side is that truly the only way to find out which seller is actually motivated is to write an offer. This has been a challenge with many buyers right now. There are some good buys out there and those willing to throw offers around are scoring on occasion. Most sellers are starting way too high because they only want to sell if they get a crazy number. That ship sailed Fall 2022. Properties actually priced appropriately are going under contract quickly since inventory is still so low and demand is there.

Will a proposed new tax on second homes and STRs really help housing that much? I don't have the answer to that. I do know that people who bought their second homes 5+ years ago for next to nothing with out of state incomes probably won't really care all that much. Could some of them decide to sell over it? Maybe.

[yeahman]

Zillow is showing 991 rentals in Bozeman.

It's showing me there are 1,135 rentals available today.

So I guess we can assume based on WRG's post that a large portion of those are off the market as far as actually renting them?

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

<p>
Rentals here are also rarely managed by realtors so I really don&#39;t have much insight into the nuances of using Zillow to list a rental etc. I assume property management companies and individuals post their available rentals to Zillow, but there is no way to know how accurate those numbers are. There are a couple buildings with tons of &quot;available&quot; units. I think some of these are still under construction and some probably have future leases already in place but the Zillow &quot;available&quot; number is not accurate. I also know that CL and FB is littered with fake listings that are bot generated to try to scam people. Not sure if that is possible with Zillow though.</p>

[Name Redacted]

Zillow rarely has any listings for rentals in our area. There's like 13 listed in our zip code currently. Which is way off.

[Yukonrider]

<p>
It wasn&#39;t too hard to find a place to rent this winter</p>
<p>
&nbsp;</p>

[XXX-er]

Tarrifs : good or bad for RE and what is ever one doing to mitigate if anything ? I know the 08 credit swap crisis was great becuz local RE dropped so much i could afford to buy again ergo the recession will be good for people sitting in cash

[Name Redacted]

First thought is that new builds will get more expensive due to material costs skyrocketing. Lumber, aluminum, steel. So considering we have yet to build ourselves out of a housing crisis, I’d say it is mostly negative. But if the economy crashes, it could cause rates to come down at least.

[californiagrown]

^^^^ if material costs go way up, but rates remain high, would that force labor costs to go down to balance out the total costs of construction? I know labor costs are A LOT stickier than material costs, but it would seem that something has to give or all work stops.

[XXX-er]

On the news I am hearing 55% tarrif on Canadian lumber if that counts as way up, it didnt sound like the canadian industry guy interviewed particularly cared its just STOP and America will pay it, fun fact Canada has NO bauxite but is the 4 largest aluminium producer in the world

[Kevo]

Seeing a lot of "I'm a tradesman looking for work, no job too small" on the local community FB pages here. Carpenters, drywallers, painters, electricians, etc.

[yeahman]

Realtor I talked to in Bozeman the other day said she knows of a lot of projects that have just halted midstream. Lots of tradespeople not too busy these days. Guess we shall see how it shakes out once summer comes.

[Shredhead]

fun fact Canada has NO bauxite but is the 4 largest aluminium producer in the world

Cheap electricity is a much bigger factor in Aluminium production.

Most US smelters were shuttered years ago. Some were turned into BTC mining centers, due to the existing electric infrastructure.

[dan_pdx]

We signed a contract with a design/build company for a bathroom remodel about a month ago. They said we'd be working on design in May and doing construction in August.

Just thinking about the state of things yesterday and got the strong feeling that maybe this isn't a good time to spend that money. Seems like we should be holding on to our money in case of a great depression, not spending it. Bet there's a lot of people feeling that way. And that's how you crash the economy, folks.

[civilcoconut]

We signed a contract with a design/build company for a bathroom remodel about a month ago. They said we&#39;d be working on design in May and doing construction in August. Just thinking about the state of things yesterday and got the strong feeling that maybe this isn&#39;t a good time to spend that money. Seems like we should be holding on to our money in case of a great depression, not spending it. Bet there&#39;s a lot of people feeling that way. And that&#39;s how you crash the economy, folks.

The federal government is in the process of shedding hundreds of thousands of employees in the next 60 to 200 days across the country.
They are also cutting contracts and leases left and right, which is also going to put people out of a job. Certainly anyone connected to federal government expenditures has pulled way back on spending since the election. Job losses will start hitting the fed. contractors soon as well.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

<p>
If you look at the data from past election years going back like 40 years people always put the brakes on big spending (houses in particular) as they wait to see what happens prior to the election. Then we see a ramp up after the election and inauguration is over. Welp, with so much unrest and uncertainty people are DEFINITELY holding onto their purse strings right now. It&#39;s a bit of a warzone out there across the board. High-er mortgage rates, super low inventory, national/global economic uncertainty, etc etc.</p>

[Bunion 2020]

Will a proposed new tax on second homes and STRs really help housing that much? I don't have the answer to that. I do know that people who bought their second homes 5+ years ago for next to nothing with out of state incomes probably won't really care all that much. Could some of them decide to sell over it? Maybe.

Between the much abused Ag exemptions and other loopholes I doubt it will.

Realtor I talked to in Bozeman the other day said she knows of a lot of projects that have just halted midstream. Lots of tradespeople not too busy these days. Guess we shall see how it shakes out once summer comes.

Right now is usually the really busy time for me writing construction permits. Totally radio silent, both commercial and residential. Fortunately my plate is full enough for this summer with existing work.

[XXX-er]

Cheap electricity is a much bigger factor in Aluminium production. Most US smelters were shuttered years ago. Some were turned into BTC mining centers, due to the existing electric infrastructure.


yup ^^shuttered sawmills are great cuz they already got the big electrical feed SO some wire fence a couple of seacans a portacan and you got a bitcoin factory




never mind cheap power y&#39;all may not have ANY power if the Doug Ford pulls yer plug LOL !

[Bunion 2020]

Spoke with a PM for a large family residential compound and horse project about an hour ago. 160 acres, custom indoor stable, indoor riding arena, outdoor riding area (all mostly completed) and phase 2 was a conversion of an existing farmhouse to a chapel, 2 ponds, and the big house 15K+ sq feet.

P2 was suppose to go this summer. Plugged pulled for at least the next year. Owner was supposedly a money no object kinda guy. That is project # 2 that this has happened on. Those MNO people are starting to reconsider what that means.

[skaredshtles]

Spoke with a PM for a large family residential compound and horse project about an hour ago. 160 acres, custom indoor stable, indoor riding arena, outdoor riding area (all mostly completed) and phase 2 was a conversion of an existing farmhouse to a chapel, 2 ponds, and the big house 15K sq feet. Was suppose to go this summer. Plugged pulled for at least the next year. Owner was supposedly a money no object kinda guy.

2024: Money is no object!

2025: Nobody told me it would be THAT much money! I am out...

[Bunion 2020]

Pretty much, even the few Y/C clients are tapping the brakes.

[Conundrum]

I'm hearing from builders in resort townsthat the last few years has been "MNO, screw the budget, I want this on my house" to now we're sticking to the budget and owners are willing to make concessions to do so. Backlog is still good and owners are talking to GCs about future projects. General vibe is building will continue but at an attainable pace to keep projects on time and budget without much money in change orders.