Real Estate Crash thread

[Danno]

It's shifted for sure, but how much is not yet clear. My organization, like lots of others, has become ok with mostly remote work, but it's gently trying to pull people back in to the office more. And office presence is almost certainly going to help with advancement opportunities.

I'm not sure where exactly the balance in the WFH vs office is going to wind up.

[phatty]

What part of CA are you in?

He's North Bend, WA. 30 miles East of Seattle.

CG, that's nuts, but similar in Issaquah/Sammamish. 2 friends put houses up for $1.2M (starter home around here &#129400 and both sold with multiple offers in 1 day. Our friends a little upmarket ($2.2M) put theirs up a week ago and it's still on the market.

[Flyoverland Captive]

That is crazy. Are you in the Bend area? A buddy of mine who'd lived in Bend for 15 years just moved to Hood River, said that Bend was getting too crowded for him (his exact words were "Reno North"). Nice if you're selling a house though.

In Powell Butte (rural area near Bend.). Almost tripled my money in 8 years. Hard to fathom this strange new world, but I ain’t complaining.

[schuss]

I can tell you now that there are a plethora of companies across the US now who said “fuck it” and threw their doors open to WFH. Hell, our company already had one foot in the door pre-pandemic, so it was an easy jump for us and we’ve not looked back since (at least for the good-paying positions that generate value for the company.

For a lot of us, this is becoming a permanent change. Many others who fall short will still try and make remote work/ mountain town living work for them.

The paradigm has shifted.

Same. When I used to post jobs, I'd get 5-20 apps for experienced analyst positions.
Now I get well over 600 because I have a fully remote team - better talent pool.
My company is selling a big building near me because no one goes in and reducing HQ footprint as well. Makes sense for most as given we're a global company, nearly everything was a call regardless because people are spread across the country and the world. Now we get to ditch office expense, offer more flexibility, pay is lower vs. what it would be because we can offer and pay at lower CoL vs. city-only positions. Really the only reason to pull people back in the office is if you don't actually know how to set goals and manage people.
Culture is suffering a little, but I'm confident that will get figured out.
Also - absolutely no one misses their commutes. Many people are getting 2+ hours a day back that had to commute into major cities.

[Name Redacted]

Can you imagine the amount of pollution that is avoided without all these folks commuting to work every day? I mean, that has to be a positive for almost everyone but oil companies and car manufacturers.

[XXX-er]

I asked the new new bend transplants what they do

he is studying to be an electrician and she does breath work since I have dated a yoga teacher and know about all the woowe shit atempting to start a convo about breath work was unusual eh

i think they did really well on the RE

[yeahman]

i think they did really well on the RE

Now they've come to ruin your town.

[XXX-er]

well at least they are not American eh ?

in any case I'm pretty sure i already did that 17 yars ago,

as Mark Perry the local Troubador writes " the right people come and the right people stay " and its always been that way

they seem unusual enough to fit in

[Dshack89]

Just for another anecdote, we bought our place in Sandy for $375k in 2017. We just listed at $675K and went under contract the same weekend at $10k over (had multiple offers). In contrast, the place we just bought was on the market for 9 months. There is definitely a big difference in sales velocity for "starter" homes (which obviously is a relative $$ based on market).

Sent from my SM-S908U using TGR Forums mobile app

[rideit]

Can you imagine the amount of pollution that is avoided without all these folks commuting to work every day? I mean, that has to be a positive for almost everyone but oil companies and car manufacturers.

Well, except that all those fuckers are clogging the chairlifts, the grocery stores, and the bike trails at 11:00 am, when they should be at work.

[Kevo]

Yes, everyone deserves to pay 1/3 the current going rate to move to a resort town and live out their western dreams of WFH while skiing the pow. Just be happy you're smarter or at least quicker than the average bear.

A median price SFH in Boise in September 2020 was $388K. At 2.625% APR, you can finance $388K at $1,558 per month.

As of February 2023, the midian price SFH in Boise was $471k. At 7.25% APR, you can finance $471k at $3,200 per month.

Current prices in Boise require a mortgage payment more than 2x that of 2.5 years ago.

[Conundrum]

A median price SFH in Boise in September 2020 was $388K. At 2.625% APR, you can finance $388K at $1,558 per month.

As of February 2023, the midian price SFH in Boise was $471k. At 7.25% APR, you can finance $471k at $3,200 per month.

Current prices in Boise require a mortgage payment more than 2x that of 2.5 years ago.

Good thing I was smarter or quicker than everyone by buying 20 years ago but haven't "moved up" yet. Still envious of those that bought 20 years ahead of me. It's all relative...yay "free market".

[Foggy_Goggles]

"Buying a Payment" is such a shitty life. @Kevo of the interest rates, payments and home prices you posted, which ones do you think are sustainable and are gonna stick?

I'll put my money on the 7.25% and the 388k. Go kick the tires on what some outfit like DR Horton or KB pays to build a home all in. Any substantial reduction in the dollar cost of house needs giant changes to expectations and methodologies. Its like higher education and medicine.

As mentioned, shit is fucked. I have not idea what the desirable locations will look like in ten years but the trend isn't good. The virtual job does not seem compatible with meat space services. $1K service calls for plumbers and electricians are just around the corner.

Right now I'm working on a deck rebuild that costs $120K. Homeowner had to wait two years to get scheduled. Going rate for our laborer to hump materials and throw away garbage is $35/hr. New homes on the street with $2mill build costs go weeks without contractors on site.

So the laptop class like to talk about the new normal of WFH. We the new normal for interacting face to face with a human might be that none of us can afford it.

[AdironRider]

After spending a decade plus in a ski town waiting for a contractor to never show up I started learning how to do most of the shit myself. It isn't rocket science and it doesn't require a college degree, but it does require labor, sometimes hard labor. I even sprung for some overpriced Festool stuff for my tool quiver and still came out way ahead than paying the going rate.

My buddies used to bitch and moan about not being able to get anything done, and when they were able to, how expensive it was. Then would hop in their mtn bro Tacoma and go do a cross fit class. I just huffed around a bunch of boards and spent the same amount of time staying in decent shape and saved a bunch of money, but it wasn't great IG material.

[fastfred]

Good thing I was smarter or quicker than everyone by buying 20 years ago but haven't "moved up" yet. Still envious of those that bought 20 years ahead of me. It's all relative...yay "free market".

ha ha
#me too bitches

didn't really think much at that 7% plus interest I had to pay almost twenty years ago either
everyone was talking game back then I'd fix the dump up make a killing and move up to a bigger better house
that still has yet to happen lol

[Meadow Skipper]

…the laptop class...

Haven’t heard that before, I like that.

[Foggy_Goggles]

@Adiron

Some people don't like math. Would you rather be cross fit instructor or a plumber? What I do know is that from now until the end of time, every property will need maintenance.

Here is a bit of a mind fuck regarding the "how" of mountain properties are being afforded. In Grand County USA, there is a trend, mostly with among families with kids, to moving in to or upgrading there second home. People are ditching their city house and going full time here. Maybe the keep a condo or apt for if they have to "go to the office".

We probably have about 5k primary residents in the Fraser River Valley. Every weekend powder day 18k ish people go to the ski area. 20years ago those people couldn't live here for one reason or another, mostly job. Now that there job can be done from here, they live here.

[Kevo]

"Buying a Payment" is such a shitty life. @Kevo of the interest rates, payments and home prices you posted, which ones do you think are sustainable and are gonna stick?

My hypothesis is that prices are going to break and come down, at least on average across most MLS regions.

For better or worse, most people buy houses with a mortgage and most people can't come up with 2x the payment of two years ago. Things are currently backstopped because of limited supply, but if supply goes up...

[summit]

Colorado is proposing doing away with most local land use controls in "mountain resort zones" and cities in order to get people to build housing, ostensibly "for workers." A major focus is allowing any SFH to build an ADU even tiny house/glorified heated shed style.

Parking? Who cares!

Water? Who cares!

Transit? Who cares!

Walkability? Who cares!

Inability to require deed restriction? Who cares!

Building spacing, utility access, and snow removal? Who cares!

A bunch more AirBnBs get built? Who cares!

Every single mountain town saying this is FUCKED? Who cares!

Front Range City Dem Politicians know what is best for your community, citizen!

It personally helps me cuz I'll build an ADU, move into it, and Airbnb my place.

[AdironRider]

No doubt on maintenance.

I guess my point is there is a limit to what people can handle/afford. When your house is flooding you don't necessarily have time to wait for the ski town's one plumber to show up, and even the laptop class has a limit to how many 1k service calls they can spring before something gives.

[Percy Rideout]

Colorado is proposing doing away with most local land use controls in "mountain resort zones" and cities in order to get people to build housing, ostensibly "for workers." A major focus is allowing any SFH to build an ADU even tiny house/glorified heated shed style.

Parking? Who cares!

Water? Who cares!

Transit? Who cares!

Walkability? Who cares!

Inability to require deed restriction? Who cares!

Building spacing, utility access, and snow removal? Who cares!

A bunch more AirBnBs get built? Who cares!

Every single mountain town saying this is FUCKED? Who cares!

Front Range City Dem Politicians know what is best for your community, citizen!

It personally helps me cuz I'll build an ADU, move into it, and Airbnb my place.

This reminds me of the wolf reintroduction vote.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Somebody link the articles about WPs application process for affordable housing, Eagles Countys audit of deed restriction violations, the proposed alternatives to the Colorado Compact and so on.

A friend of mine's kid is living the dream in Des Moines, IA. Colorado is fucked. But it's way more good that bad for me and I'm in deep.

Like Summit, I just need that back yard ADU so I can afford to work less.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[neckdeep]

Can you imagine the amount of pollution that is avoided without all these folks commuting to work every day? I mean, that has to be a positive for almost everyone but oil companies and car manufacturers.

No, its just classic burden shifting. That suburban air pollution just becomes water and air pollution in some mountain town that's being assraped by developers. You can't add hundreds of homes per year to rural counties that lack infrastructure without serious consequences. The local river here is shit compared to ten years ago and it's a direct result of adding 1000 houses.

Everyone wants to live here and but this ain't no rising tide lifting all boats. The big joke is we still have minimal infrastructure for basic things, like healthcare, water treatment, solid waste and road maintenance. Home prices and developer's profits skyrocket, roads get packed, a couple new restaurants open....but all the important shit that needs to be improved just stays the same or gets worse.

Just burden shifting, aka progress, American style.

[fastfred]

just bought ten toilets and a bunch of plumbing fixtures
I'm going to smoke a bowl now then argue with myself do I ski or ride a bike?
then wonder how I ended up getting here

always gotta be ahead of the curve I guess reading a guide book or searching the internet for the "best places to live" will do that to a town

[Mazderati]

My hypothesis is that prices are going to break and come down, at least on average across most MLS regions.

For better or worse, most people buy houses with a mortgage and most people can't come up with 2x the payment of two years ago. Things are currently backstopped because of limited supply, but if supply goes up...

On what do you base this and over what period of time? I'd like to see it happen but hard to see how it does.