Real Estate Crash thread

[cramer]

Not true. I like Bend Or, which has taken a huge value hit, and is very desirable to lots of people. I would need to look into the local economies (jobs), what is happening to inventories, historical appreciation rates, etc, but I am sure there are many good deals in Oregon and Washington states that will work out as better investments from today to say 10 years from now than rentals in CA, NV, FL.

Well back in the late 80's early 90's, alot of california folks sold their homes and moved up to Wa state. Thats what brought the population boom, jobs, and ultimately housing prices went up. Same thing happened early 2000's. California folks sold their homes and moved to AZ, NV. Its a viscious cycle, but the last 2 housing booms were directly lead by CA. I dont see anywhere in Real estate as being a good investmant until CA recovers. Thats just my .02. But im no expert. I'm just looking at the trends. When this state is flourishing, so is everyone else. When we arent, well, take a look around.

[Benny Profane]

For a rental investment, I would look at localities around the country with a stable economy (didn't experience the boom or bust so much) with a large student population. Austin, Ithaca, and Burlington come to mind.

Wow, I spent the last 2 hours reading that link and other related links on that website. Makes me think realistically the CA market should be set to get crushed over the next 2 years, but I also really think the guberment will allow banks to do anything to support values, so all those impending foreclosures from the Option ARM loans done in CA will likely stay of the banks books and off the MLS for years. I don't think the banks can turn the properties into rentals, as that will depress rents and kill values that are based off of gross rent multiples. Man, interesting times are still in front of us.

This guy is the man. he exposes the BS for what it is, and, yeah, you can say that it's just California, but California is something like 25% of the real estate market as a whole. Watch out below in 10-11.
I really doubt the banks will be landlords. But, don't be surprised if the feds encourage them into some sort of rental frame of mind with your tax dollars as bait soon. The best way to look at this is to recognize two important dates - Election Day, '10, and more important, Election Day '12. Three years from now, or, probably a year before that to kick off the campaign, the geniuses in the White House will be enacting "emergency measures" to deal with the foreclosure and housing tsunami. And, it won't be pretty.
I wonder if this thread will be around then?

[skier666]

As a person who closed on a sale of a SF Condo (North Beach) and closed on a purchase on another SF Condo (Cow Hollow)....be aware that the lenders are taking their sweet time combing through your finances. From my start of this whole process back in June, I had to keep sending updated statements and more and more info literally up until the final signing at escrow. Even better is that our lender decided to up our down payment another 5% two days before we were to move into our new place. If it wasn't for our business having accounts with the lender, I may have been screwed.

[cramer]

As a person who closed on a sale of a SF Condo (North Beach) and closed on a purchase on another SF Condo (Cow Hollow)....be aware that the lenders are taking their sweet time combing through your finances. From my start of this whole process back in June, I had to keep sending updated statements and more and more info literally up until the final signing at escrow. Even better is that our lender decided to up our down payment another 5% two days before we were to move into our new place. If it wasn't for our business having accounts with the lender, I may have been screwed.

My buddy here at work had same thing happen that you did. My wifes good friend has lost not 1, but 2 potential houses due to the loans having problems. We got him hooked up with our loan guy though. He's closed 6 houses for me and my friends in the last year. Hopefully he gets into a house this time.

Theres a question for the real estate folks out there. Can loan guys kick down for referrals? I'm a little annoyed he isnt and my real estate agent gives us 1000 a pop. This is taxable income through her, not under the table. Or do agents just make that much more money than loan guys? On top of that, she refers him as well. I hooked the bastard up.

[elevens]

figured I'd chim in here.......

we recently closed on our CT house last month and 3 days before the closing, the lending bank (BofA) called and asked me for my most recent pay stub. What makes it funny is that the lender is a friend and called me a work. He said that since the fallout, the banks are looking for ways not to loan money and if anything is out of place, the loan is denied.

I was very comfortable with this and personally feel it's about time banks only issued mortgages to qualified buyers. Buyer beware is not a valid argument in my mind since most people in the USA are idiots (says proudly holding flag). How else do we explain the second Bush election, Micheal Moore and the entire city goverment of Chicago

[skifishbum]

I haven't read all this thread but here is my thoughts/story. We bought our first hose here in Sandy UT. 5 bedrooms 2 baths ~ 2000 square foot.Good local <5 miles from Lcc for $140,000 back in 97. I did a lot of work on the house new woodwork, tile, carpet, new bathrooms, roof, skylights, rock front , new siding, xerascape etc. My wife wasn't happy here any more, slightly busy street, no master bedroom bathroom and her pack rat husband had amassed a lot of stuff cluttering the house. At the markets peak I think it was possibly worth 310,000ish. Our neighbor bought a similar house slightly larger to ours for 328k. He lost his job and his girlfriend and the bank foreclosed and booted him last week. He tried to short sell and it definately hurt our chances of selling our house.

A couple years ago we started looking. We found a perfect fixer upper 7 bedrooms 3 baths 3500 square ft' ,dead end st,. big lot, water rights to a creek, a mile closer to the lcc. Everything we were looking for including
70's bubble gum shag carpet. The old lady who owned it had been trying to sell for a year already starting at a 382,000 price. Basically she had done nothing to this house since she had it except for a new furnace and roof. Original linoleum, kitchen, different shades of cat piss smelling 70's shag carpet. Last fall she was down to 315ish and we offered 295ish she came back at 310. Cool see ya in the spring when we will offer you even less.

This spring we signed a contract for 289ish and listed our house for 264ish
we averaged 2 showings a week through the summer with mixed reviews.
I think there were a couple new families with young children who loved it but wanted 3 bedrooms up vs the 2 up 3 down we have. We had worked a deal with the same re agent and during the summer we would drop 7k and the old lady would drop 5k. We dropped a bit more as the Mrs. really wanted this house.
Just as we were about to pull the plug for the winter a maggot RTR was looking for his 1st house in our location, decided to put in an offer he came in low and once again the old lady didn't want to play ball. We came down he came up and finally the old lady came down a little. We where still ~ 2k from where we wanted to be. Basically the cost of tearing out and replacing out 7 bedrooms of catpiss reeking carpet. We shopped around and Met Life was willing to give us 4.8% financing and waive a lot of closing costs because all our insurance is with them, so dicking around arguing over 2 k was gonna be futile if interest rates came up. I'm not sure exactly what the final prices came out to be. I let my wife wear the financial pants in the family so I can wear ski bibs and waders. I'm stoked a maggot brought my house for a good price. I'm super stoked to have new crib although I think it just might cut into my skiing this season. It's gonna take a lot of work but, I've spent a good part of my adult life in the trades and enjoy working on our house for my boss/spancer.
I don't know if this new house will be as good of investment as the first one but, I'm not real concerned, as we don't plan on selling/moving for a while and the potential is certainly there.

So I'm not seeing this "crash" thing as such a bad thing personally. We sold our house for less than we wanted but got a new one for less than we wanted.
Lastly huge props to Ryan Kirkham of http://www.kirkhamre.com/ this guy busted ass to make this deal work and did a lot for RTR.
There are probably some good SLC maggot real estate agents and I would have loved to use one of them but we worked a great deal with Ryan and he came through.
Oh yeah this thread needs bubble gum shag carpet stoke

Fuck yeah the skituning/flytying man cave is gonna be sweet unless I'm tripping then it could get ugly.
sorry for a long post/blog probably could have made this a thread and may and just link here

[Benny Profane]

jezuz, it looks like the Pillsbury Doughboy threw up on that carpet after drinking strawberry pina cloladas all night. good lord.

[cramer]

i thought the rust colored carpet i grew up with as a kid was bad. That there, takes the cake. Holy shit!

oh and congrats on the new pad. I'd clean a couple chunks of that carpet up and use it as doormats for your housewarming. That will get some ooh's and ahhs, hehe.

[skifishbum]

^^^ there is more of that 70's goodness avacado green and dark blue bathroom vanities. I kind of feel bad for her as 5 or so years ago she was paying taxes on a theroitically 400k house. I don't think she was getting all the $$ she didn't spend improving her house hurt once the quick flipping ended. She's moving to Boise be with her family. shit I even offered to help her move. I'm stoke there are two 10'x20' mormon emergency supply pantries and all the skiing fishing camping gear will have a place and not in the garage

[Benny Profane]

Seven bedrooms? One word - Viagra, man.

[BigDaddy]

Cut that shag into 3" strips and glue them to your black DPS rental skis to dress them up. Be worth it maybe for one run...!

Congrats on the house Carmen. That's a feel good story as everyone's happy.

[St. Jerry]

Two points of note:

1. NYC market has definetly stabilized over the past two months. Prices are down 25% from peak but if the apartment is priced accordingly, there are buyers to hit the bid.

2. And I concur about lending standards much tougher (which is a good thing). Going on four months now on trying to refinance my mortgage. Only 30% loan to value with monthly payment only 15% of income and the number of different requests and obscure statements (for example they need to know in writing why one time did I pay my maintenance fee two months in advance two years ago) they need is over the top.

[supermodel159]

I haven't read all this thread but here is my thoughts/story. We bought our first hose here in Sandy UT. 5 bedrooms 2 baths ~ 2000 square foot.Good local <5 miles from Lcc for $140,000 back in 97. I did a lot of work on the house new woodwork, tile, carpet, new bathrooms, roof, skylights, rock front , new siding, xerascape etc. My wife wasn't happy here any more, slightly busy street, no master bedroom bathroom and her pack rat husband had amassed a lot of stuff cluttering the house. At the markets peak I think it was possibly worth 310,000ish. Our neighbor bought a similar house slightly larger to ours for 328k. He lost his job and his girlfriend and the bank foreclosed and booted him last week. He tried to short sell and it definately hurt our chances of selling our house.

A couple years ago we started looking. We found a perfect fixer upper 7 bedrooms 3 baths 3500 square ft' ,dead end st,. big lot, water rights to a creek, a mile closer to the lcc. Everything we were looking for including
70's bubble gum shag carpet. The old lady who owned it had been trying to sell for a year already starting at a 382,000 price. Basically she had done nothing to this house since she had it except for a new furnace and roof. Original linoleum, kitchen, different shades of cat piss smelling 70's shag carpet. Last fall she was down to 315ish and we offered 295ish she came back at 310. Cool see ya in the spring when we will offer you even less.

This spring we signed a contract for 289ish and listed our house for 264ish
we averaged 2 showings a week through the summer with mixed reviews.
I think there were a couple new families with young children who loved it but wanted 3 bedrooms up vs the 2 up 3 down we have. We had worked a deal with the same re agent and during the summer we would drop 7k and the old lady would drop 5k. We dropped a bit more as the Mrs. really wanted this house.
Just as we were about to pull the plug for the winter a maggot RTR was looking for his 1st house in our location, decided to put in an offer he came in low and once again the old lady didn't want to play ball. We came down he came up and finally the old lady came down a little. We where still ~ 2k from where we wanted to be. Basically the cost of tearing out and replacing out 7 bedrooms of catpiss reeking carpet. We shopped around and Met Life was willing to give us 4.8% financing and waive a lot of closing costs because all our insurance is with them, so dicking around arguing over 2 k was gonna be futile if interest rates came up. I'm not sure exactly what the final prices came out to be. I let my wife wear the financial pants in the family so I can wear ski bibs and waders. I'm stoked a maggot brought my house for a good price. I'm super stoked to have new crib although I think it just might cut into my skiing this season. It's gonna take a lot of work but, I've spent a good part of my adult life in the trades and enjoy working on our house for my boss/spancer.
I don't know if this new house will be as good of investment as the first one but, I'm not real concerned, as we don't plan on selling/moving for a while and the potential is certainly there.

So I'm not seeing this "crash" thing as such a bad thing personally. We sold our house for less than we wanted but got a new one for less than we wanted.
Lastly huge props to Ryan Kirkham of http://www.kirkhamre.com/ this guy busted ass to make this deal work and did a lot for RTR.
There are probably some good SLC maggot real estate agents and I would have loved to use one of them but we worked a great deal with Ryan and he came through.
Oh yeah this thread needs bubble gum shag carpet stoke

Fuck yeah the skituning/flytying man cave is gonna be sweet unless I'm tripping then it could get ugly.
sorry for a long post/blog probably could have made this a thread and may and just link here

Seven bedrooms...that is a lot of furniture.

[skifishbum]

^^^ will probably loose one by blowing out a non bearing wall enlarge the master and make walk in closets. One nice spare bedroom for guests up stairs and an office One room for my fishin stuff and tying. The other two
paco pads and sleeping bags OTR mags don't need much
Viagra pffft more furkids. I'ts a lot more house then we need but to much potential based on footage and location to pass up. May end up mother in lawing the basement and renting it eventually.
I kind of wanted to keep this house, and probably could have 5 years down the road or god forbid one of those real jobs. There is a guy down the street from us who runs a 7 month off season lease and vrbo the house in the winter. He has been doing it for 5 or 6 years now and does pretty well he does most of the maintanence and turn over himself. I've helped him on bigger maintence projects Last year he was pretty well booked all the winter.
Cheaper for 4 or 5 couples to rent a house vrs. condos or hotel rooms I guess

[iceman]

Congrats, D., I didn't realize that you finally got the place until reading this thread just a few minutes ago. I know you're psyched and I'm sure your spanser must be stoked too. I look forward to seeing the place maybe in a couple weeks when we come out or else at Christmas, either way.

[liv2ski]

The Mortgage Bankers Association's report Thursday suggests the housing market and broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall behind on their mortgages.

After three years of plunging prices, the housing market started to rebound this summer. While optimists hope the worst is over, pessimists say there are simply too many foreclosed properties that have yet to be dumped on the market and expect further price declines.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34039065...s-real_estate/

As previously discussed, the rise in property values over the last few months is likely a temporary event due to larger problems.

Check out this cool interactive chart of foreclosures. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33449976...ss-real_estate
It is interesting to see Utah briefly was as bad as CA, NV and Fl in mid 2009.

[Benny Profane]

This just freaked me out this morning. My Raisin Bran is not digesting well. Barney Frank must die.

Check out the picture of these dudes who bought a million dollar house backed by your dime. Now they have a place to pahtee and house the bong collection.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/bu....html?_r=1&hpw

"But the idea of a house as an investment dies hard. Mr. Bedar, Mr. Rowland and the third partner in their property, Jordan Kurland, are all in the technology field, but their dreams of wealth do not feature stock options.

“We’re banking on real estate,” said Mr. Kurland, 24. “Everyone expects prices to keep going up.”"

"A few weeks ago, Congress extended the higher lending limits for another year. Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that he planned to introduce legislation next year raising the maximum F.H.A. loan by $100,000, to $839,750.

His bill would make the new limits permanent."

[supermodel159]

This just freaked me out this morning. My Raisin Bran is not digesting well. Barney Frank must die.

Check out the picture of these dudes who bought a million dollar house backed by your dime. Now they have a place to pahtee and house the bong collection.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/20/bu....html?_r=1&hpw

"But the idea of a house as an investment dies hard. Mr. Bedar, Mr. Rowland and the third partner in their property, Jordan Kurland, are all in the technology field, but their dreams of wealth do not feature stock options.

“We’re banking on real estate,” said Mr. Kurland, 24. “Everyone expects prices to keep going up.”"

"A few weeks ago, Congress extended the higher lending limits for another year. Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that he planned to introduce legislation next year raising the maximum F.H.A. loan by $100,000, to $839,750.

His bill would make the new limits permanent."

Here we go again.

This is what happens when Dems are in control.

[meatdrink9]

Check out this cool interactive chart of foreclosures. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33449976...ss-real_estate
It is interesting to see Utah briefly was as bad as CA, NV and Fl in mid 2009.

Cool chart. Utah doesn't surprise me. There are a lot of people here who like to put on a show and live beyond their means. Also, a lot of people trying to be investors/entrepreneurs. Many of the them speculated and most of them lost. If it doesn't work today don't buy it.

[4matic]

There's another worse dump with the yard plowed up and full of weeds a couple houses down. I'll let you know how that one does. Area code 94580.

Here it is. listed at $299k:

Update on this house. It sold in three days. I went in the house, it was just as the old guy who died left it. Dishes in the sink. Old, old furniture and carpet. Cosmetic fixer. Nice detached garage with power. No houses for sale on my block now.

That green thing is ivy climing an antenna. There are at least 5 tall antennae on the property and a wire running across two of them. Totally like Back to the Future.

[liv2ski]

^^^^4matic, look at this link. http://www.city-data.com/real-estate...-CA-94580.html There is a nice graft down the page on sales in your zip code. I found looking up where you live.
On the Real Estate Crash front, I have a hard on for Bend Or lately. You can buy really nice 5 year old homes there for $300k that were selling for over 600k a few years ago. I suggested to the wife we sell our home at the beach, buy up there and put $500-$600k in investments so we can quit working. She told me

[Benny Profane]

Yeah, well, as long as working isn't in your plans. Bend was a big destination for California refugees who drove prices up, but then lost their jobs and now have to leave with their tails between their legs.
I'd go for that SLC condo if I were you.

[XXX-er]

"But the idea of a house as an investment dies hard. Mr. Bedar, Mr. Rowland and the third partner in their property, Jordan Kurland, are all in the technology field, but their dreams of wealth do not feature stock options.

“We’re banking on real estate,” said Mr. Kurland, 24. “Everyone expects prices to keep going up.”"

As I understand it or could some one espalin in real easy words , can't you folks down there deduct mortgage interest off your income taxes or sft ?

we can't up here but I would think being able to deduct interest from taxes means people never bother to pay off their house they just keep buying a bigger house ,maximize debt ,max out the deduction ... part of your net worth is not the house you own but the percieved value your equity ?


I read somewhere you folks down there owe just about double per capita what we owe up here ?

[InnoliBrowl]

I regret, that I can not participate in discussion now. It is not enough information. But this theme me very much interests.

[liv2ski]

As I understand it or could some one espalin in real easy words , can't you folks down there deduct mortgage interest off your income taxes or sft ?

we can't up here but I would think being able to deduct interest from taxes means people never bother to pay off their house they just keep buying a bigger house ,maximize debt ,max out the deduction ... part of your net worth is not the house you own but the percieved value your equity ?


I read somewhere you folks down there owe just about double per capita what we owe up here ?

Just another example of fucked up priorities. Americans are told to buy and finance more and more as it is your patriotic duty to consume. Hell, we will even let you write off the interest on your big ass loan rather than encourage you to have less debt via no interest deduction and no capital gains hit when you sell your home as it is in Canada. I like the Canadian take way more.