Real Estate Crash thread

[ColMan]

ColMan,

The other fun thing I've been doing is taking my bike with me in the mornings on the light rail and then riding home!

Right on. Great idea as I've always avoided riding due to the lack gym/shower facilities in my building. Though shaving my head and using a lot of deodorant might work.

[Rontele]

Right on. Great idea as I've always avoided riding due to the lack gym/shower facilities in my building. Though shaving my head and using a lot of deodorant might work.

Yup. Coming to work totally sweaty isn't ideal and frankly, I don't usually have tons of motivation to ride at 615 when I haven't had my coffee yet.

[Benny Profane]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/bu...on-web.html?hp

American homes are losing their value at the fastest rate in two decades, according to a closely watched report released on Tuesday.

In the 12 months ended in February, the Case-Shiller home price index, which measures the value of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan regions, fell 13.6 percent, the worst decline since records began in 1987. A broader 20-city index dropped 12.7 percent.

The slump in home prices was more severe than the worst point of the recession of the 1990s, the last time values fell so far, so quickly.

As foreclosures rise and mortgage lenders tighten their standards, the market is expected to continue to suffer under the pressure of sagging inventories and a dearth of qualified buyers, economists said.

“This is not, alas, a fluke,” Ian Shepherdson, a London-based economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients. “The monthly declines have been accelerating steadily over the past year and this just marks another step on the way.”

All 20 regions included in the index recorded price declines in February, with Western cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego among the worst performers. Only the Charlotte, N.C., area has seen prices increase from February 2007 to February 2008.

Single-family homes in Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix have lost more than a fifth of their value over that period, according to the report, which is released by ratings firm Standard & Poor’s.

“There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers,” said David M. Blitzer, who oversees the index, in a statement.

[rideit]

Well, Benny, you can rub one out on this one...Even the Alpine, Wy market is getting hit. Just got this e-mail from our local realtor Board:

" hope everyone had a wonderful day!
Just a heads up...... Ive drastically REDUCED the price of our 4.94 acre Mixed Use (Residential AND/OR Commercial) Property from $1,150,000 to $899,000 until June 1.
Its located just north of Alpine Jct. on the main drag, 4.94 Acres, plenty of great well water, new roads and almost 500 of highway frontage! Currently there are 4 homes/cottages on the property varying in size and bringing in $3200/mo in rental income. These buildings can remain in place until ready to develop into much needed condominiums for commuters, commercial or a combination of both!
In addition, LC P&Z has informed me that public sewer and water are scheduled to come to the lot line by early 2009! Currently there is the well and a septic servicing the existing homes.
Price will increase again on June 1.
Take care and Im happy to assist you with your questions and concerns.

--
Sincerely,
Stephanie M. blahblah
Associate Broker
Century 21 Mountain View Real Estate"

[timvwcom]

Always hard for an individual Agent to judge the market, since we only see our own little slices at a time. But I've had maybe my busiest single month in 8 or 10 years? Should settle in around 2.5 million in properties under contract for those 30 days? Our market has been busier all around, but not every agent in my office is able to smile yet, so don't think I'd call it a "recovery" yet...

[mcsquared]

I think it has been said before but that Case Schiller Index is crap and doesn't do a very good job at demonstrating the overall market very well. Its like a stock index of the most volatile stocks. Things have picked up around here too. I have sold two properties in the past 2 weeks.

[Benny Profane]

I posted this in another thread, but definitely belongs here



Just listened to this on a long drive home from a bike ride. Not a big fan of Ira Glass and This American Life, but this was one of the best explanations of how the world got into the present "credit crunch" for the layman. Hell, since even Warren Buffet is confused by this shit, maybe he'll like it.

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Default.aspx - "The Giant Pool of Money"

It's available as a free podcast for the week starting Monday, 5/12, and I think he's on XM. You can also stream it on your computer.

My favorite is how some kid just out of college at the end of his game selling these bundles described how, when his income dropped to 24000 for the month, couldn't meet expenses.

[mitch buchannon]

I think it has been said before but that Case Schiller Index is crap and doesn't do a very good job at demonstrating the overall market very well. Its like a stock index of the most volatile stocks. Things have picked up around here too. I have sold two properties in the past 2 weeks.

Damn I hope so, closing next Monday. Anyone want to recommend a good electrician?

[whatcomridaz]

Can you send me some more info about this?

Well, Benny, you can rub one out on this one...Even the Alpine, Wy market is getting hit. Just got this e-mail from our local realtor Board:

" hope everyone had a wonderful day!
Just a heads up...... Ive drastically REDUCED the price of our 4.94 acre Mixed Use (Residential AND/OR Commercial) Property from $1,150,000 to $899,000 until June 1.
Its located just north of Alpine Jct. on the main drag, 4.94 Acres, plenty of great well water, new roads and almost 500 of highway frontage! Currently there are 4 homes/cottages on the property varying in size and bringing in $3200/mo in rental income. These buildings can remain in place until ready to develop into much needed condominiums for commuters, commercial or a combination of both!
In addition, LC P&Z has informed me that public sewer and water are scheduled to come to the lot line by early 2009! Currently there is the well and a septic servicing the existing homes.
Price will increase again on June 1.
Take care and Im happy to assist you with your questions and concerns.

--
Sincerely,
Stephanie M. blahblah
Associate Broker
Century 21 Mountain View Real Estate"

[stump832]

My favorite is how some kid just out of college at the end of his game selling these bundles described how, when his income dropped to 24000 for the month, couldn't meet expenses.

Definitely a good listen - they broke down the CDO market pretty well, which isn't an easy task.

To me, the people like the one you mentioned are where the blame should be laid for this entire sitchmo.. Some kid, straight out of college, making 75 grand a month by falsifying loan apps so he can hang out at nightclubs and pretend he's a big deal? Awful.

New rule of thumb for bubbles: when chauncys like that guy are pulling in 75 grand a month out of college, SOMETHING IS WRONG.

[Benny Profane]

From an article that CoreShot posted about the FIRE economy. Not a pleasant scenario. This actually scares me, because it supports the worst case argument that a depression is just a few steps off the cliff to the right or left.

"As more and more risk pollution rises to the surface, credit will continue to contract, and the FIRE economy—which depends on the free flow of credit—will experience its first near-death experience since the sector rose to power in the early 1980s. Because all asset hyperinflations revert to the mean, we can expect housing prices to decline roughly 38 percent from their peak as they return to something closer to the historical rate of monetary inflation. If the rate of decline stabilizes at between 6 and 7 percent each year, the correction has about six years to go before things stabilize, leaving the FIRE economy in need of $12 trillion. Where will that money be found?"

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

[montanaskier]

house in MT still for sale. This thing is holding up me buying a place where I live now. It is priced right, come on....somebody in MT buy this place!!!!

[kokomas]

Pretty interesting article. I don't necessarily agree though that housing prices need to revert all the way down to the general price level. I think that is like saying the supply and demand for all goods is the same. Its like saying gasoline prices should track the overall level of inflation, which I think is crazy talk. Houses and land, like gasoline have scarcity of supply in the long run which means their relative price to other goods should rise over time. Said another way, they are not making any more land. So I think home prices need to go down enough that people prefer to own than rent on a large scale. To me that is about 10-15% on average with lots of differences across markets.

[mcsquared]

Right now, HUD has some fantastic deals going on for Owner Occupied homes. I wish investors could get in on these deals. I have seen homes going for 50% of the previous purchase price and if they need repairs (which they all do) you can get a 203k loan and the government will loan you all the money for the repairs and super low rates. All for $100 down. In some cases, if you are willing to go through the brain damage of filling out the forms and going through the motions homes are selling for what amounts to 500-600 a month whereas similar homes on the same block are renting for 800-900 a month.

[mitch buchannon]

Right now, HUD has some fantastic deals going on for Owner Occupied homes. I wish investors could get in on these deals. I have seen homes going for 50% of the previous purchase price and if they need repairs (which they all do) you can get a 203k loan and the government will loan you all the money for the repairs and super low rates. All for $100 down. In some cases, if you are willing to go through the brain damage of filling out the forms and going through the motions homes are selling for what amounts to 500-600 a month whereas similar homes on the same block are renting for 800-900 a month.

I've heard that the $100 down FHA/HUD deals are REALLY difficult to get funded right now.

[Toadman]

Greenspan calls a bottom
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the housing market will bottom early next year.

In a speech at a macroeconomic conference in Asia, Greenspan said that things will start to turn around when the market starts to absorb the buildup of inventories. "It is very likely that home prices will stabilize well before that, because markets anticipate the future," Greenspan said.

I'm sure Greenspan anticipated the collapse of the credit market when he dropped rates to 1.5%.

[rideit]

Can you send me some more info about this?

PM me, I'll dig into it.
It is not 'general' information.

[Benny Profane]

Especially bad times for condos. I remember the period in NYC they mention in this article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/bu...183&ei=5087%0A

“What motivated people to go into the condo market in a way that led to overbuilding was the expectation that it would be easier than owning a home on a maintenance basis,” said Sam Chandan, chief economist at the real estate research firm Reis. “The downside is that your fate is tied to 50 or 100 other people who may stop making their condo payments.”

Many of the numbers compiled on home sales specifically exclude condos, which account for one out of eight homes in the nation, and that missing data may be masking just how weak the housing market really is. Sales of existing condo units were down 26 percent in March from a year earlier, compared with an 18 percent decline for single-family homes, according to the National Association of Realtors.

[Aldo]

Benny, going long on the short. Let this one drop.

[Spats]

We've got a long way to go. Alt-A hasn't even begun to hit yet. All the option and IO resets are still lurking out in the later part of this year and next year, and now that flipping is no longer an option, millions more people are going to get crushed.

This is why the financial industry has rammed lower lending standards for the GSEs through Congress: they want to offload as much of this toxic garbage on the government as they can, so those of us who were prudent and didn't spend more than we could afford will have to pay for it anyway through more inflation and higher taxes.

[Benny Profane]

Benny, going long on the short. Let this one drop.

Sorry dude, but you should see the amount of signs on lawns over in Fairfield county where I'm moving soon to live with all the rich people. The status sign is from Sotheby's, I guess, if that's good. This one has a long time to go.

[skier666]

On a side note, if you are in the market for a condo, be leary of the HOA fees. Make sure you ask about "special assessments," which may occur more often as more people vacate buildings. You may be tempted by low HOA fees but in fact may be buying into a substantial special assessment and fail to look at the big picture.

[ColMan]

On a side note, if you are in the market for a condo, be leary of the HOA fees. Make sure you ask about "special assessments," which may occur more often as more people vacate buildings. You may be tempted by low HOA fees but in fact may be buying into a substantial special assessment and fail to look at the big picture.

Good advice. Speaking of special assessments, there's a condo complex in Marina Del Rey that just notified the owners of a $120,000 assessment per unit for foundation repairs. Granted, these are $800k+ condos, but that is still a massive assessment.

[snowsprite]

After spending a good portion of my weekend raking, cleaning out flower beds, organizing crap and just cleaning in general...I can honestly say that "the thrill is gone" for me as far as home ownership.

I could see myself owning the teensy house of my dreams some day, one that takes only 30 min to clean top-to-bottom, including yardwork. But only after a much-deserved hiatus from ALL the annoyances that come with owning real estate. I've had it, and I can't wait to enter the wonderful world of renting where you have only to sacrifice your deposit if you want to pack up and simply leave because you don't like a place--or the neighbors.

No more shoveling snow, raking, lawn-mowing, etc. OH JOY OF JOYS!

I wonder how many burned-out, disgruntled homeowners who've had it w/ suburbia (and financial uncertainty & angst) will become born-again renters and decide that living in someone else's "money pit" with your own juicy stash of rainy day money easily accessible in the bank or buried under a rock in the woods instead of locked into a shaky real estate market is a breath of fresh air?

Sprite
(if you can't tell..I'm leaning toward selling my money pit asap and cutting my losses--both materially and psychologically!)

[Benny Profane]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1211...us_real_estate