Real Estate Crash thread

[rideit]

Thanks for that zombie tag, I’ll send that off.

Here he is, looking like a musician…

[anotherVTskibum]

Speaking of insurance, it appears that rates are lower when state regulators actually require insurers to properly justify increases.

It also appears that rates tend to go up in places with less regulation whenever there are big losses in places with stricter regulation.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...smid=url-share

[schuss]

Speaking of insurance, it appears that rates are lower when state regulators actually require insurers to properly justify increases.

It also appears that rates tend to go up in places with less regulation whenever there are big losses in places with stricter regulation.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...smid=url-share

Different carriers have different philosophies on raising in one area to cover another.
Progressive, for example, typically runs profit and loss at the state level versus doing that.
Also yes, when you can raise with less work, you'll see rates change more often but by the same token, more regulation means more likelihood of non rate action like non renewal.

[californiagrown]

I can't find the link that i read on my phone but some site is claiming the all out war against STR in BC has seriuosly affected the RE market in BC specificly kelowna & kamloops, listings are way up/ prices down

Myself and a million other Pugetopolis residents are licking our chops for when the BC govt opens back up the real estate market to us southerners...

[Conundrum]

Speaking of insurance, it appears that rates are lower when state regulators actually require insurers to properly justify increases.

It also appears that rates tend to go up in places with less regulation whenever there are big losses in places with stricter regulation.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...smid=url-share

Taken from the linked article. "Where homeowners pay the most relative to home values" is the one on the right.



Another map of stats.



It's almost as if those with money prey on those who don't understand things. Any correlation?

[XXX-er]

Check the official BC gov news, you think that is really gona happen in an entire province where they just declared war to eliminating the STR and housing has become so unaffordable ?

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024HOUS0020-000590

from what I have read alot of Canada is more unaffordable than the USA

[californiagrown]

Check the official BC gov news, you think that is really gona happen in an entire province where they just declared war to eliminating the STR and housing has become so unaffordable ?

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024HOUS0020-000590

from what I have read alot of Canada is more unaffordable than the USA

I should have said *if* BC decides to open RE back up to us southerners. I can dream.... It would be completely understandable if the moratorium was extended another decade+

I also don't doubt that much of Canada is more unaffordable than the USA... but Seattle and the Bay Area are places where you're looking at 7 figures easy (in freedom francs) for a 40yr old 2000sf house on a 8000sf lot. So, RE prices being "unaffordable" is relative.

[XXX-er]

Do not hold your breath, it will take decades for RE supply to catch up with population growth and I think the STR is looked upon as a failed experiment at least in BC

Average price of a house in Vangroovy is 1.3million, Toronto is not far behind at 1.2 million

edit: And then don't forget there was the 2 waves of my people the honkies and even worse the mainlander's, the millionaire program, the billions of money laundering which fubared RE, so any attempt to bring in immigrants has also pretty much been a failed experiment

so whom in their right mind read Political leader would touch that ?

[anotherVTskibum]

Taken from the linked article. "Where homeowners pay the most relative to home values" is the one on the right.



Another map of stats.



It's almost as if those with money prey on those who don't understand things. Any correlation?

Looking at the one you posted, I'd guess there is some level of correlation between education level and believing that the best way to check corporate power is to use government regulation.

I didn't love the $/100k of value stat because I think it overlooks the greater divergence between current value and replacement cost for relatively inexpensive homes (eg I doubt you could rebuild most sub-$400k homes for anything close to current resale value given increased build costs, whereas I don't think the impact is as significant in terms of percent of cost when you get into newer and higher-dollar properties).

[Conundrum]

Google US map of wealth, map of education, map of voter turnout, map of cost of a lot of things, and the images mostly look the same with different titles. I'm not saying government is the answer in all cases but the data is showing that the people that have it the toughest usually are the lowest educated, vote the least, and make less money.

The rich have always extracted wealth from the poor. This isn't different.

[Skistack]

Taken from the linked article. "Where homeowners pay the most relative to home values" is the one on the right.



Another map of stats.



It's almost as if those with money prey on those who don't understand things. Any correlation?

It's function of average home value. Insurance will always be a greater % of home value on lower valued homes. And the poorly educated (shockingly) tend live in cheap houses.

[spanky]

Amazing color choices! On a quick look, it appears Kansas is the only color outlier.

Edit: and Utah with a very light blue.
Edit 2: and Wisconsin

[Buster Highmen]

[Djongo Unchained]

It's almost as if those with money prey on those who don't understand things.

Jackson Hole in a nutshell.

Before the money arrived, the only players in the Real Estate game were the real estators and local entrepreneur/investor types. A small circle and a tiny circle back then.

The sharpest recognized the most basic economic rule at play here in bold italics.
Supply and demand.
The most politically and money savvy pushed thru a few regs that to this day insure the extra rarity of ownable property here.

Then they started their own brokerages and waited for the people to come. Late eighties after the coke party, peeps began to trickle in to protect their money. No state tax and uber biz friendly state govy.
With outside bigger money comes new development visions and a smarter class of developer.
And they see what the local stealers saw. An uncommon place with great draw for people and an easy market for Speculation development.
Cue the 90's/00's. Rampant big development of the upper class.

Everyone ignored Capt. Bob. But he was right.

The greedy locals first, then external smart money ruined this place in the housing crunch/economic inequality, class division arena.
Some of the wealthiest families in this town went this path. Only a few left and their TFBs. All the other old local families got taxed out by their new neighbor's Mini mcmanse.

[Mazderati]

Had a house under contract to buy that just fell through. Fuck this market.

[Djongo Unchained]

I watched that viddy after that post.

That big ass construction project? 4 houses down from me. I'd argue the utah developer has about 90% out of region workers there. That Driggs guy is prolly making 70k to get the project along but not formally trained. He could be running an asphalt crew in Lubbock right now.

And A+ prices on C+ quality construction. Simple moron construction. Too many architects here from away grew up playing with building blocks instead of Lincoln logs.
Stacked boxes, the New West...

Jessica lives 5 houses in the other direction. She talks the good local common sense talk but can't deliver with any consistency. She can articulate the issues and angle them well but can't develop or drive any succesful vision. She's hamstrung by a broken system that doesn't allow her tools to fix it.
Anywhere you live, fucked up stuff happens. Driving around the pass was no catastrophe. Just damned inconvenient and plainly unsustainable. Fixed in 3 weeks. Toughen up buttercups.

Those peeps in NoVa/MD who commuted across the bridge have it exponentially worse methinks.

[ötzi]

Wow they fixed that in 3 weeks?

[Conundrum]

Remember the old Magic Johnson quote? "Turns out the cure for HIV is money..."

[Core Shot]

Captain Bob!

Rode the bus many times with him.

A bit nutter. When he sold his house the layout was insane. Literally.

I live in a slightly less insane location. But the STR is an STD. And no one wants to build enough worker housing. Have three good friends that won the Jackson hole lottery.
But I’m not a fan of lifetime housing. Habitat is one and done. For a long time.

But true worker housing where you have to show 30 hours a week on payroll working locally makes more sense for these tight economies and limited development areas.
Yeah when you retire you have to leave. But then another worker can use the worker housing.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I feel we are losing our direction with the whole affordable, deed restricted, workforce housing thing. Not to say that it is on balance bad, just that it is starting to look like a smoke screen where the benefits are a few people win the lottery, a new bureaucratic machine gains momentum but the fundamental issues remain ignored.

So the "Authenticity" of Summit County is a Nail Studio in Breck? Give them a check.

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/bre...on-properties/

https://www.summitdaily.com/news/ass...-in-community/

Meanwhile over in Winter Park, they are raising the rent 10% on the new shit box apartments they built to cover "operational costs" to the out of state corporate management company. But special "rent exceptions" will be granted and funded by the town. So sexy pic in the paper with the Golden Shovel but not enough money to operate and maintain your "Housing Projects".

One on hand, the cash payments demonstrate some transparency but also kind of expose what the product actually is. The wages paid by the service industry, the school district, local and county government and so on don't even pay for the build costs of housing. Or do they? And Government is just dog shit at being developer, builder and landlord?

Give me and my friends approval for a quadplex on a residential lot without having to pay for four water and sewer taps, give us the 20% profit written into the affordable build contracts and we'll use all local labor and deliver you a product for about 75% of what your paying for your crappy projects. But we'll be working more than 30hrs a week.

[AdironRider]

How does that make you any different than the evil out of state developer though?

Getting free four water and sewer taps is a 100k handout minimum in a lot of mountain towns. You are just changing who gets the sweet and easy govt cash.

Not that I wouldn't be inclined that money go into the local economy, but that is just picking you as the winner not someone else so I don't think it really changes any of the underlying problems. You've been on the money with the nimby aspects. Just let people build units, and lots of them. You don't need the handouts.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Not free. Just apply SFE standards. i.e. 8bd/8ba changed the same whether its a mansion or 4 units. I'm on the inside. I go to the meetings. I ask the questions. Even my dumbass know multiples more than those in charge of Affordable Housing.

They won't share there spreadsheets. The affordability of affordable housing is somewhere between a thorn in their side and not a concern. I'm simply pointing out that the devil is in the details. One of our county commissioner said in a public meeting that "market rate affording housing is over in this county". Fuck you guy!

Product can be brought to market at $300/sq. ft. no problem. $4k sq. ft. quad plex with garages. But I don't spec it at that price, it's gotta be someone else's money.

[singlesline]

I didn't love the $/100k of value stat because I think it overlooks the greater divergence between current value and replacement cost for relatively inexpensive homes (eg I doubt you could rebuild most sub-$400k homes for anything close to current resale value given increased build costs, whereas I don't think the impact is as significant in terms of percent of cost when you get into newer and higher-dollar properties).

I think that's an important point.

There are a LOT of lower income (for the local market) communities where rebuild costs easily exceed the total value of the home (including land). There's usually a few factors at play:
1. Build costs have just gone up. Labor and Materials cost more than when those homes were built. In a mass casualty event like a wildfire or a hurricane it gets even worse because you have local shortages.
2. Often the houses in question were built en masse by a big home builder. Rebuild, on an existing site, one at a time, costs more because you give up all the economies of scale you get when building a subdivision. Plus you have cleanup/debris costs on top of it.
3. Those houses do not meet current code/building standards. If you rebuild the house today with modern HVAC, good insulation, electrical up to code, etc....it is going to cost you a lot more per square foot. It should also be more efficient and require less maintenance...but those aren't paid by the insurer.

Insurance isn't supposed to give you a "windfall", it is supposed to replace what you lost. But what do you do when what you lost is a dilapidated shack and the county won't permit anything besides modern construction with a minimum R-30 insulation. Not only is everything in your house NEW (new appliances, new plumbing, new flooring), but it is also mostly built to a higher standard.

So of course those people end up getting high insurance costs...they are basically insuring a $500k home even though they only live in a $300k house.

[Kevo]

I watched that viddy after that post.

That big ass construction project? 4 houses down from me. I'd argue the utah developer has about 90% out of region workers there. That Driggs guy is prolly making 70k to get the project along but not formally trained. He could be running an asphalt crew in Lubbock right now.

Driggs guy ran for county commissioner a couple years ago. His primary qualification was being LDS and his platform was to repeal the counties land use code. https://fb.watch/teq_w2jmP4/

[byates1]

Imagine if every insanely wealthy family that acquired property in Jackson also made sure that the long time ppl who make the town function were able to- make the town function and have a quality of life.

What have the ultra wealthy really done to forward this important function. Almost fucking nothing. Why has the fucking art trust ballooned into he billions of dollars while the housing trust has grown modestly.

It's a case study in how humans are miserable pieces of shit. The amount of excess wealth these ppl have is beyond staggering. The fair market solution is veiled slavery. Illegals will walk from Venezuela and live 10 plus to a singlewide to make 25$ washing dishes. More power to them but it creates a glaring disparity fairly quickly.

I hate people. Ent rant.