Real Estate Crash thread

[Foggy_Goggles]

E or B, that's what I'm feeling. I was reading an article (no vetted) talking about the increased in households earning <$150k in something like the last 5 years. Arvada and Lakewood were in the 10 ten on a percentage basis.

It really has become part of the Millennium Lifestyle. I worked on a home where the family was the first in their friend group to have a cabin in the mountains. Watching them operate was interesting. They were good people but they were so stereotypical that they could have been in the Madison and Levi from Lakewood YouTube.

It just speaks to the income of the local workers looking for a primary residence not being able to compete with the more wealthy city folks shopping for a second home.

[XXX-er]

If I had kids of an age to have a ski cabin up the hill maybe but a second house seems like another house to deal with or am i missing something ?

[east or bust]

E or B, that's what I'm feeling. I was reading an article (no vetted) talking about the increased in households earning <$150k in something like the last 5 years. Arvada and Lakewood were in the 10 ten on a percentage basis.

It really has become part of the Millennium Lifestyle. I worked on a home where the family was the first in their friend group to have a cabin in the mountains. Watching them operate was interesting. They were good people but they were so stereotypical that they could have been in the Madison and Levi from Lakewood YouTube.

It just speaks to the income of the local workers looking for a primary residence not being able to compete with the more wealthy city folks shopping for a second home.

Take these cumulative inflation numbers with a grain of salt (though I did cross check on several different sites):

2000-2024: 82.4%

2000-2005: 13.4%
2005-2010: 11.7%
2010-2015: 8.7%
2015-2020: 9.2%
2020-2024: 21.4%

Not to turn this into more inflation talk, but making 6 figures isn't what it used to be. When I entered the workforce in 2016 a common starting salary for my profession was in the low to mid $60k range. That same entry level position is now probably starting at closer to $80k, based on what I knew from about 2 years ago. Green, right out of school with maybe 1 or 2 internships under your belt. If working for a corporation (where annual raises are pretty typical) you can be making close to $150k by 35 years old. Now imagine a "power" couple grossing $300k by age 35. It's a different world for sure, and no wonder why people living and working in smaller economies (ahem, mountain towns) can't keep up.

Maybe younger folk see the writing on the wall - I can either do what I "selfishly" want, go live in a mountain town and work jobs where I can scrape by. Or go with the big career and suffer the daily grind but end up making a shit ton more money and have the flexibility to buy in later. This really hasn't changed from the good ol ski bumming days other than perhaps the wage/wealth disparity gap is larger now.

[Danno]

Are their Dannos in Bozeone that have a second home and defer it's expense with STR income? The Grand County market is dominated by the Denver Second Home Owner but I'm not sure if their is a Montana equivalent.

Danno doesn't even have a first home, lol.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Didn't Bozeman do a crackdown on STR recently?

New type-3 (aka owner doesn't live on site) STRs were banned, but they grandfathered in all of the existing ones. Still a free for all in the county for the most part and you can be outside city limits and still close to town.

[NBABUCKS1]

E or B, that's what I'm feeling. II worked on a home where the family was the first in their friend group to have a cabin in the mountains. Watching them operate was interesting. They were good people but they were so stereotypical that they could have been in the Madison and Levi from Lakewood YouTube.

what do you mean by this? Just that they were clueluess?

[Kevo]

$150k in household income doesn't buy a house in most of the Denver metro area, let alone a second home in the mountains.

I doubt there are any towns with lift serviced skiing in the US where $150k in household income buys a single family home these days. Even with a condo it would be a stretch in most places.

[m2711c]

that would buy you a castle in the upstates…


fact.

[californiagrown]

$150k in household income doesn't buy a house in most of the Denver metro area, let alone a second home in the mountains.

I doubt there are any towns with lift serviced skiing in the US where $150k in household income buys a single family home these days. Even with a condo it would be a stretch in most places.

Just quickly redfinned and found a 1500sf 3x2 house for $470k in a town at the base of an Ikonic "resort". A family of 3 could easily make that work on $150k per year.

In another Ikonic town i see that a 1200sf 3x2 house sold last month for $500k.


Is it in jackson, or summit county, or tahoe? No. Will you be able to afford a big mountain pad for a family of 5? Not easily. But, $150k will still work for a small family in many areas. "they" say you shouldnt spend more than 28% of your gross income on a mortgage, well 28% of 150k is a $3500/month mortgage payment. With todays interest rates that works out to around a $500k house.

[fastfred]

that would buy you a castle in the upstates…


fact.

I lol'd
was just looking at tupper lake property this weekend and wasn't happy with what inflation was doing there
the days of 80k homes ten years ago are kinda not there anymore

[fastfred]

Take these cumulative inflation numbers with a grain of salt (though I did cross check on several different sites):

2000-2024: 82.4%

2000-2005: 13.4%
2005-2010: 11.7%
2010-2015: 8.7%
2015-2020: 9.2%
2020-2024: 21.4%

Not to turn this into more inflation talk, but making 6 figures isn't what it used to be. When I entered the workforce in 2016 a common starting salary for my profession was in the low to mid $60k range. That same entry level position is now probably starting at closer to $80k, based on what I knew from about 2 years ago. Green, right out of school with maybe 1 or 2 internships under your belt. If working for a corporation (where annual raises are pretty typical) you can be making close to $150k by 35 years old. Now imagine a "power" couple grossing $300k by age 35. It's a different world for sure, and no wonder why people living and working in smaller economies (ahem, mountain towns) can't keep up.

Maybe younger folk see the writing on the wall - I can either do what I "selfishly" want, go live in a mountain town and work jobs where I can scrape by. Or go with the big career and suffer the daily grind but end up making a shit ton more money and have the flexibility to buy in later. This really hasn't changed from the good ol ski bumming days other than perhaps the wage/wealth disparity gap is larger now.

in the mid 90's 20 years old I moved to a ski town
was making about 8.50 an hour and thought that was great because just by moving from upstates ny I got a $2 an hour bump in wages

rent in upstate and new england was around 175 - 300 a month rent in scummit was 350 - 450 a month this is in a shit hole with roommates

today the bottom dollar mininimum wage in the mtn towns is $20 an hour and people balk at that number so it's more like $25 to get someone to show up regularly
rent is around $1400 a room
the kicker is you don't even have to work you just have to show up and maybe give a solid 2-4 hours in an 8 hour span
I yelled at a guy a few years ago for moving too slow so he quit

[concretejungle]

Honestly, downtown BZN has been quiet all summer until the last week. Id love hard data from BZN STR owners, but I would imagine numbers are down. 2021 was probably the high water mark.

It's not hard data but my jackass neighbor rents out his ADU. It's noticeably less busy than years prior. They still park like jackasses and block the alley, it's just less often.

[Name Redacted]

I yelled at a guy a few years ago for moving too slow so he quit

So accurate. I wonder if i paid them $50 hr if i could yell at them then.

I am so ready to just go solo and hire some highschool kids to do some dirty work. Do kids even get jobs in highschool anymore? Is that still a thing? Pretty sure most kids are more mature than the 30yos that I have hired lately.

[Ted Striker]

Danno doesn't even have a first home, lol.

Back when I was playing in bands there were all these jokes like "how can you tell the drummer is at the door? The knock slows down"

Your post reminds me of "what do you call a drummer with no girlfriend? Homeless"

[XXX-er]

Back when I was playing in bands there were all these jokes like "how can you tell the drummer is at the door? The knock slows down"

Your post reminds me of "what do you call a drummer with no girlfriend? Homeless"

yeah they also got those jokes for the bass players

[neufox47]

I'll take Porter's claims over yours in this regard.

I can confirm that hedge funds and PE firms are definitely in the STR game. They are going to own a shell company that owns the real estate portfolio and a separate operating company in most instances I’ve seen.

[Ted Striker]

yeah they also got those jokes for the bass players

What do you call a beautiful woman on a bassist's arm? A tattoo.

[XXX-er]

My buddy the base player told me he plays base cuz there are always enough guitar players but never enough bass players

I think his record at midsummer mf is playing in 11 bands at the weekend fest cuz not enough bass players

buddy has even played holly wood bowl which really impressed his dad who thot he would amount to nothing

[XXX-er]

I can't find the link that i read on my phone but some site is claiming the all out war against STR in BC has seriuosly affected the RE market in BC specificly kelowna & kamloops, listings are way up/ prices down

[Ted Striker]

Yeah, that's 100% true. My first instrument was guitar, but I played bass in a friend's band after they parted ways with their original bass player. Played bass and guitar on their album too. Played drums in another friend's band.

Guitar players are a dime a dozen. Whenever someone said they or so-and-so played guitar, I'd always reply "who doesn't?"

[rideit]

We bought my kiddo a bass for the holidays in January. Last month he had a two week paid gig backing up a play here that has a live backing band. Union wage.
He’s 16, and didn’t really play any instrument before.
Absurd.

[Ted Striker]

^^^ that is straight up awesome

[XXX-er]

when you think about it 11 gigs in one weekend is a lot of gigs but if they all pay somethin thats a tidy sum, buddy also plays organ & something else i am sure, another guy i know did a whole bunch of gigs sax/ drum probably something else

smithers is a hot bed of the performing arts and started folk fests in the north a player I know who moved here fairly recntly told me " I thot this place would be a wasted land in the music scene but i am willing to admit i was completley wrong"

[rideit]

^^^ that is straight up awesome

Even better, he used some of the money to buy a fretless bass so he could ‘develop his own sound’, an amp, and paid for his own lessons for the school year.
He is also attending the Targhee Music Camp this August.
You can’t imagine how stoked I am. We recently drove to Denver, and the entire trip he asked me to play my favorite bass-heavy albums that have influenced me. Curious choices:
Tony Levin albums, like Peter Gabriel So, King Crimson albums with Tony and Bill Bruford, Paul Simon Graceland, some dank 77/78 Phil-heavy shows, Jaco, Martin, Medesky and Wood, some Isbell.
He likes slinky, groovy bass over showboating, and wants to really learn to lock in a groove more than be a prodigy.
I am trying to get a new subwoofer installed before I go and pick him up, lol

[Buster Highmen]

Even better, he used some of the money to buy a fretless bass so he could ‘develop his own sound’, an amp, and paid for his own lessons for the school year.
He is also attending the Targhee Music Camp this August.
You can’t imagine how stoked I am. We recently drove to Denver, and the entire trip he asked me to play my favorite bass-heavy albums that have influenced me. Curious choices:
Tony Levin albums, like Peter Gabriel So, King Crimson albums with Tony and Bill Bruford, some dank 77/78 Phil-heavy shows, Jaco, Martin, Medesky and Wood, some Isbell.
He likes slinky, groovy bass over showboating, and wants to really learn to lock in a groove more than be a prodigy.
I am trying to get a new subwoofer installed before I go and pick him up, lol

https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...Jazz-and-Rock)