Utah Weather this week/weekend

**Red Baron** · 02-14-2006, 01:11 PM

Ok, I got a bunch of PM's asking, so here's the deal;

All of Northern Utah (valleys included, this is finally a cold storm) gets snow from Wednesday afternoon through about 10am Thursday.

SLC should get about 4" in that time frame, LCC/BCC resorts should get about 13", with lesser amounts in the Ogden area mountains, about 10" there. Yes, these numbers are different than the NWS, as we have different thoughts about this storm. I still say the model they are going with is too wet.

If the lake kicks in (about a 50/50 shot now) totals in the Cottonwoods will be higher. The Great Salt Lake is really warm right now, and with extremely cold air moving in, that temp difference will help to enhance snow showers SE of the lake. Still, lake effect forecasting is real hard until the time when you can see if things line up just right, which won't be until Wednesday evening.

((It was much easier back in South Bend when as long as there was a 15 degree temp difference between the temp of Lake Michigan, and the temp at 5000ft, with a NW wind, it snowed.

))

After that, we remain in cold, unstable air, which leads to continued snow at higher elevations, though without any other real fronts (or impulses, as some of you like to call them) that's only going to amount to fairly small totals for each day.

In other words, there's snow in the forecast clear through Presidents Day weekend, but the strongest part of it will be the storm coming Wednesday & Thursday, with scattered snow Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There's another storm on the way Sunday night into Monday but I'm not ready to deal with that one yet.

Also, for those talking about an early morning start on Thursday, please note that we are talking about arctic air moving in, that will even make transplants from Vermont want to stay inside. Pre-dawn, Thursday morning temps at 9k will be in the -5 to -10 range.

This should be a fun storm; nothing wrong with a foot of dry snow after a week of high pressure, right?

**Trackhead** · 02-14-2006, 01:25 PM

Thanks for the post RB.

I like the specifics in it as well. It's nice to know more than "It's going to be sick!"

**teleee** · 02-14-2006, 01:31 PM

Thanks RB, I was going to ask this very question today!

**Tin Woodsman** · 02-14-2006, 01:34 PM

Thanks for the report. Care to hazard a guess for locales to your East? Specifically the Aspen area? NWS out of Grand Jct is talking about a moist SW flow for the weekend after this first shortwave passes through Wed/Thurs.

**phatfreeheeler** · 02-14-2006, 01:40 PM

Thanks RB. I know I was thinking about that Thursday morning thing. I may rethink since I've become a wuss after 8 years in utah. Hows friday morning? I figure things will be more settled down by then anyways

Thanks
phat

**Xover** · 02-14-2006, 02:26 PM

thanx rb

Notre Dame still sucks ass though

**MattK.** · 02-14-2006, 02:27 PM

Thanks for posting your forecast RB. This information was just what I was looking for .....after being shut out on my last four trips to Alta I might have actually timed this trip well for a change.

**Red Baron** · 02-14-2006, 02:43 PM

Originally Posted by Xover

Notre Dame still sucks ass though

Hey, I'm a Florida grad; I just worked in South Bend!

CS · 02-14-2006, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by Xover

thanx rb

Notre Dame still sucks ass though

Can you ski yet, pinball master?

**stump832** · 02-14-2006, 03:42 PM

Dust on bumps baby!!!

**Mr. Altagirl** · 02-14-2006, 03:46 PM

Nice job RB! My boss is flying in tomorrow for my annual review; I might just need to release some steam Thursday morning up on the hill after dealing with the monkey. If you can go up, you should come hang out at the Collins side for a while, you would be surprised how many people you recognize.

**Trackhead** · 02-14-2006, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by CS

Can you ski yet, pinball master?

hahahahahahahaahah. His new name. He was the puppet master.

**criscam** · 02-14-2006, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by Red Baron

Hey, I'm a Florida grad; I just worked in South Bend!

UF?

UM.

**StroupSkier** · 02-14-2006, 04:36 PM

Hmmm, they're going to need more than 13" to cover up the crap up there right now.

However, should it dump, you can blame my aching ass tooth and lack of vacation time for coming home early

**tomw_n** · 02-14-2006, 05:40 PM

thanks RB

about time we had some gnar. i'm so over the park

**Bum Z** · 02-14-2006, 06:01 PM

Thanks for the forecast. Can't wait to slam the icy bumps under the 12" of blower.

**freshie247** · 02-15-2006, 12:44 AM

Thanks RB,

I'm in town with some friends. I sure hope we get the larger totals others are predicting !

**Stoysluttie1** · 02-15-2006, 07:44 AM

more than expected here! Shoveling 7-8 inches in the valley!

**jdabasin** · 02-15-2006, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by Red Baron

In other words, there's snow in the forecast clear through Presidents Day weekend, but the strongest part of it will be the storm coming Wednesday & Thursday, with scattered snow Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There's another storm on the way Sunday night into Monday but I'm not ready to deal with that one yet.

I'm a fellow weather geek in Denver....and our biggest shot in the next week looks to be Saturday night thru Sunday in the mtns, though we should see 6-10 today-tomorrow in the hills. The SW mountains and folks in Aspen might like the looks of that upcoming system over the weekend....
what do you see from that storm for Utah?

**doofdoof** · 02-15-2006, 10:02 AM

See you all on Collins side this afternoon! Glad to have the snow

Mr.AG and Stumpy - if your around I'll be looking out for you

**stump832** · 02-15-2006, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by doofdoof

Mr.AG and Stumpy - if your around I'll be looking out for you

I'll be around later, Doofer, and will keep an eye out.

**Brocktoon** · 02-15-2006, 11:17 AM

Is this prediction panning out?

**Red Baron** · 02-15-2006, 11:57 AM

Yes, all is well. I still think the numbers will be closer to what I have rather than some of the other (larger numbers) being thrown around - before any lake effect kicks in.

If that lake band sets up tonight, after the storm passes - there will be another round of snow that is equal to, or greater than the amount the storm will drop today & tonight. That would make this stom a real big one (in the 24" to 30" range for LCC/BCC) plus a bit more on Thursday & Friday, then another significant storm Saturday into Sunday.