DAMN HIGH PRESSURE!!!!

[fubar]

It looks like the PNW is going to suffer the same weather Cali is having... no moisture and fucking HIGH PRESSURE! POSSIBLY FOR TWO WEEKS!!!

Did we not get enough of that shit last season?!?!?

Sorry. Just had to vent a bit... the weather folks have been known to be wrong.

Take that high pressure.

[ptavv]

At least the Pineapple express isn't bringing us warm weather AND rain this time.

I was pissed when I saw the forecast too, then I remembered it's November 14th.

[tetsuma]

Yeah, but it was a series of high pressure cells offshore last year that opened the door to the pineapples coming our way. The jet stream is totally deflected North & East of the PNW now... gonna mess with thanksgiving skiing if it doesn't stop.

[wizard604]

Well we've had a pretty Nov so far. A week or 2 of dry weather won't matter much as we're still well ahead of schedule at this point. They'll still be able to keep the snow guns going till the next big winter blast. Gotta luv the PNW for those massive dumps when they come through, they come big time!

[BakerBoy]

I blame midget. He leaves Utah and brings with him shitty weather. Just like he did to New Zealand. If people care about snow, DON'T LET MIDGET COME TO YOUR AREA!

Further proof? It's now nuking at Solitude.

[PeachesN'Cream]

yeah it's a bummer about the possible two week close out, but at least we got a really good run early to get the stoke up. these last two weeks were on par with the best PNW days we had last winter.

this break will also give us (well me at least) a last chance to bring the leg strength back to full power and be really ready for winter to hit. i'm optomistic, it'll be good again real soon.

in the mean time stoked to see colly-rad-ohhh getting hit. i'd love to see some big UT pics soon too. sharing the love ya'll

[kb1dqh]

I was not too happy either. Amazing early November, but the next week or so will be warm and (thankfully) dry. Might be out at Smith Rock this weekend to climb- take advantage of the sun while it lasts I suppose.

[fubar]

yeah it's a bummer about the possible two week close out, but at least we got a really good run early to get the stoke up. these last two weeks were on par with the best PNW days we had last winter.

True that. After seeing the looks on your faces yesterday I decided to part ways with the family, hook up with some locals, and hike out to Silver Basin... which in hindsight is worth ever step out there.

[Huck N' Puke]

same here bro's.this sucks really bad right now. it will get better really soon though.i hope

[Jumper Bones]

Hey man, high pressure works great for me - I'm @ Fairchild AFB for survival training. We go to the field for a week, starting this weekend. And it's COLD here - into the teens (or lower) at night in the field area (northeast corner of WA state, out in the boonies). Trying to sleep while keeping your clothes dry and your batteries warm, while working with a partial issue to simulate the chaos you'd face if your plane went down...yeah.

Anyway, yeah the cold sucks and all, but at least it's not wet and miserable up there too. I'm looking for any breaks I can get, I'm trying to evade armed guards with dogs and helicopters...yeah....

and f00bar it's your fault if you didn't hit up any more of that skiing over the past week - fuck tha man! and the shop!

[midget]

sure, blame the midget you were too good to call back. Forecast was set to go warm before my snow-starved midget ass decided get on the plane. All I have to say is at least there is a BASE right now with the sun.....

[The AD]

No way is the high pressure going to hold on for two weeks.

[Zeedashbo]

i get to go tour at cottage lakes this weekend. i'd rather have dumpage, but sun isn't bad in a new zone.

[Rontele]

No way is the high pressure going to hold on for two weeks.

That is somewhat true, unless a L pressure system (which some models are calling for) sets up directly to the south...then we will have a nasty Rex Block that may not move for two weeks

[Squirrel99]

sure, blame the midget you were too good to call back. Forecast was set to go warm before my snow-starved midget ass decided get on the plane. All I have to say is at least there is a BASE right now with the sun.....

I hear that BakerBoy is getting back to his roots to grease some rails this week in B'ham. photo op?

[fubar]

and f00bar it's your fault if you didn't hit up any more of that skiing over the past week - fuck tha man! and the shop!

What does the shop or the man have to do with shit? I hit it both days over the weekend.

So pipe down and go back to school.

[Trackhead]

High pressure is great! Just not this early in the season.

Makes for safe travel to ski the lines that are otherwise too dangerous.

[dubu]

That is somewhat true, unless a L pressure system (which some models are calling for) sets up directly to the south...then we will have a nasty Rex Block that may not move for two weeks

http://www.weather.gov/outlook_tab.php

well that scared me, but it looks like just a lot of high pressure cells.. and no bloking L in noaa's forecast..

Here is hoping for a snowi thanksgiving.

[BakerBoy]

sure, blame the midget you were too good to call back. Forecast was set to go warm before my snow-starved midget ass decided get on the plane. All I have to say is at least there is a BASE right now with the sun.....

No, I was just too busy out shooting photos with Coble...

[Arty50]

What I'm reading in this thread:

"Whaaaaaa...we just skied titty deep snow all week...whaaaaaaaa..."

[Gregbo]

Agreed..... Last year was 4 weeks of rocks and then zippo.... So far this feels pretty good and it is still early.....

December is always the benchmark month... if we get pineapples then... ouch

Keep the stoke going.... it's already better than last year....

[Squirrel99]

Just saw this on KOMO website:
"just ran the forecast model out 16 days and it doesn't have our next chance of rain again until Monday -- Nov. 28th"

let's hope that it doesn't get too warm in the mountains. they are calling for strong inversions and temps reaching the upper 50's in "the foothills & mtns"

and it looks like that high pressure ridge in the Pacific is keeping storms away from the entire West Coast & Rockies.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/mode...fc_prcp&loop=1

chitty mongorrians... you tear down my chitty wall!!!

[funkendrenchman]

Just saw this on KOMO website:
"just ran the forecast model out 16 days and it doesn't have our next chance of rain again until Monday -- Nov. 28th"

let's hope that it doesn't get too warm in the mountains. they are calling for strong inversions and temps reaching the upper 50's in "the foothills & mtns"

and it looks like that high pressure ridge in the Pacific is keeping storms away from the entire West Coast & Rockies.

chitty mongorrians... you tear down my chitty wall!!!

Where do the storms go? Even further north? Is it gonna snow anywhere next week?

[fubar]

Here is the weather geek version of the upcoming forecast:

http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html

PROGNOSTIC METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
FXUS06 KWBC 152049 PMDMRD PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 21 - 25 2005 THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW GREATER DIFFERERNCES TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. ALL MODELS AT 500-HPA DEPICT AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE NOW APPARENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... THE ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS DIFFERS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH HAS LARGE IMPACTS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST. THE GFS FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS IS PREFERRED AGAIN TODAY DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND THE CANADIAN MODEL OFFERS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL IN THE EAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST. THE LONG-WAVE WEATHER PATTERN SUPPORTS DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... THE PATTERN AND CLIMATOLOGY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST SO THAT NEW ENGLAND MAY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE... THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN WETTER-THAN-NORMAL. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FROM THE GFS... AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET ...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND...THE CPC AUTO BLEND...AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND...THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES... AND CPC BIAS-CORRECTED CATEGORIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 23 - 29 2005: DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SPECIFICALLY THE OZ... 6Z... AND SUPERENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATE THAT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST. THEREFORE... THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR GREENLAND CORRESPONDS TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE...4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET FROM THE BLEND CHART..THE CPC AUTO BLEND...THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL..AND THE ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND CHART. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES...ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS TO THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: B. PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES...

Hey, and Arty you had titty deep all last season while we were praying we could have a single flake of snow... so shut it!

Edited to add link

[karma]

SHORT TERM... LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BLOCK UP THE FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING ON SHORE BY FRIDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE...WILL SEE A COUPLE COLD NIGHTS WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.