NOAA 2005-2006 Winter Outlook

[mrryde]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2520.htm

Oct. 12, 2005 — NOAA announced the 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook today for the months December, January and February. NOAA forecasters expect warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is less certain, showing equal chances of above, near or below normal precipitation for much of the country. (Click NOAA image for larger view of forecast winter temperatures for the USA. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.)

"Even though the average temperature over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there still will be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation," said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

NOAA does not expect La Niña and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to play a role in this winter's forecast. Without ENSO, forecasters look to other short-term climate factors, like the North Atlantic Oscillation, in determining the overall winter patterns. Under these conditions there tends to be more variability in winter weather patterns across the nation, especially in the Great Lakes region and the northeast U.S.

The Outlook
The 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the central and western United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The Midwest, the Southern Californian coast and the East Coast have equal chances of warmer, cooler or near-normal temperatures this winter.

The precipitation outlook calls for wetter-than-normal conditions across most of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the Southwest from Arizona to New Mexico. (Click NOAA image for larger view of forecast winter precipitation for the USA. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.)

As winter approaches, nearly 20 percent of the nation is in some level of drought compared to around 30 percent of the country this time last year as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor. For the sixth year in a row, drought remains a concern for parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. Wet or dry conditions during the winter typically have a significant impact on drought conditions. Winter-spring snow pack is particularly important in the West, as much of the annual water supply comes from the springtime snow melt. NOAA cautions it would take a number of significant winter snowstorms to end the drought in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

What Could Drive This Winter's Weather?
Since early 2005 sea-surface temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean have been near normal. Near normal sea-surface temperatures in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to continue for the next three to six months. Therefore, it is unlikely that either the El Niño or La Niña phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle will be present during the upcoming winter. As a result, one key climate feature that could have a particularly large impact in U.S. winter weather, especially along the East Coast, is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO.

The North Atlantic Oscillation often changes its phase from week-to-week. During the positive phase, the jet stream shifts to the north of its usual position and the winter weather features relatively warm days over much of the contiguous U.S. In contrast, during the negative phase the jet stream shifts to the south of its usual position. The negative phase of the NAO features more Nor'easters and more frequent cold air outbreaks and snowstorms, especially along the East Coast. Currently, the phase of the NAO is difficult to anticipate more than one to two weeks in advance.

Recognizing the demand to have more precision with seasonal outlooks, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center has formed a Climate Test Bed. The Climate Test Bed is a collaborative scientific effort among the operational, academic and research communities. The mission of the Climate Test Bed is to accelerate the transfer of atmospheric and oceanic research and development into operational climate forecasts, products and applications. At present the Climate Test Bed is focused on maximizing the use of the NOAA Climate Forecast System model in combination with other climate forecast tools to improve U.S. seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks.

NOAA will publish updates to the 2005-2006 U.S. Winter Outlook via the Web Oct. 20, and Nov. 17. Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1 while astronomical winter begins Dec. 21.

NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources.

Relevant Web Sites
Climate Factors Helping to Shape Winter 2005-2006

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

NOAA Drought Information Center

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

[gonzo]

that first chart is a bit misleading. 60% chance it will be warmer, not that it will be 60% warmer.

[Superstar Punani]

"He's got a 50/50 chance of living....though there's only a 10% chance of that"

[Monique]

"...there still will be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation," said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D."

Bet Dr. Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher (ret.) rips it up on a deep frozen precipitation day.

[Buster Highmen]

No!!! (bangs head on table)... No NO NONONO!!!

[DBdude]

Buster, Look on the bright side, you are bound to have a better season than last year!!!

[stump832]

I'd like to see this same analysis another 5 or 6 times - 50% chance of that happening.

[The AD]

The way I see it we still have a 40% chance of it being average or colder than average.

[skier666]

So to sum it up, we have a 55% chance that we will not have a 55% chance of the warming of the Pacific oceans, to increase our precip by a 55% chance.

[elevens]

Has anybody ever gone back to see how accurate the NOAA predictions have been in the past? Would be interesting to see the results

"Even though the average temperature over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there still will be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation"

WOW - thanks for the insight - the NOAA really sticks its neck out there.

[mrryde]

Has anybody ever gone back to see how accurate the NOAA predictions have been in the past? Would be interesting to see the results

"Even though the average temperature over the three-month winter season is forecast to be above normal in much of the country, there still will be bouts of winter weather with cold temperatures and frozen precipitation"

WOW - thanks for the insight - the NOAA really sticks its neck out there.

This is last years: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2342.htm

[Nate Dogg]

This is last years: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2342.htm

Well...they were right about the PNW being drier I guess

[irul&ublo]

I thought NOAA was right about the rain.

[StroupSkier]

The Ozarks are going to go off...

[Ski Monkey]

Last year was pretty warm it seemed around here, way off on the precip.

So, I'll lose maybe 5 seconds of sleep over this years forecast.

[72Twenty]

Let the construction of snow-domes begin! Yaaahhhhhoooooooo!

[summit]

Feb-Apr

TEMP



PRECIP



FUCK GLOBAL WARMING WITH AN ICECICLE

[spyderman]

Hey Buster, don't bang your head to hard, there is still hope, this is from the AccuWeather meterologist:

"The other area that will receive above-average snowfall is the mountains of the Pacific Northwest, a welcome change from the dry winter of 2004-2005. The assumption is that the warm water south of Alaska will push storms into the region, so that even if it is milder than normal, it snows more. The warmer-than-normal temperatures, combined with moisture-starved storms, will result in below-normal snowfall in the Plains."

[mrryde]

[Buster Highmen]

1 degree warmer than normal can shaft the PNW bigtime.

OK, so I won't lose hope. But I'll still bang my head.

[summit]

KC is gonna get less than 1/2 its normal precip for the season? Sucks for Snowcreek

Colorado/Wyoming/New Mexico are going to get 50-80% normal precip?

Utah is going to get 80-90% normal precip?

Pretty specific claims... Accuweather sounds far more full of shit to me than NOAA.

[shmerham]

Notice in the places that could stand to to be a bit warmer (East Coast) it's forecasted to be average.

[Sensisnow]

KC is gonna get less than 1/2 its normal precip for the season? Sucks for Snowcreek

Colorado/Wyoming/New Mexico are going to get 50-80% normal precip?

Utah is going to get 80-90% normal precip?

Pretty specific claims... Accuweather sounds far more full of shit to me than NOAA.

Accuweather can't even get a 5 day forecast correct. They seriously need to change their name to Guessuweather or something to that effect.

[Red Baron]

Seriously, the long range guidance gets updated pretty often; the next one comes out the 17th of this month, I believe, and then again in November.

I'll spare you my thoughts on Accuweather.

[Raps]

I like the sound of nor-easters......looks like the east should get a good winter according to what they are sayin......i'm not gonna argue with that. It's been raining for like 10 days straight out here so hopefully by november and december it will be pukin snow.