Wildfire ‘25

[LongShortLong]

About wind forecasts. Where I live, the weather is pretty predictable, and the NWS forecasts wind only two days ahead. From watching various fire officials on YT, they need a week or more to establish a fire line, and burn it to black. Grand Canyon features desert, canyon, and mountain terrain, all known for frequent windy conditions. Looking at the local weather data for GCNP, the available weather stations (GC airport, Flagstaff, Winslow, Page) one shows 20mph winds on Sunday afternoon, from the northwest. 20mph northwest is consistent with the NWS text forecast from 36 hours prior. The long-term forecasts for the prior week expected monsoon conditions, but these kept getting pushed off as the days passed. Every forecast I looked at highlighted high fire hazards and warned to be careful not to start one. Ofc, those forecasts are for a broad region, mostly lower, hotter, and presumably drier than the north rim.

As a casual faraway observer, maybe it was reasonable to let a slow moving fire burn here. The forecasts showed monsoon conditions a few days off, which while bringing wind and lightning, also bring humidity that likely raises fuel moisture levels and further slows fire. Besides the small area of park infrastructure, there's very little else in that forest at risk or needing protection. Mitigating against that, defending the park infrastructure means driving a long single road access through the burning forest, the region is far from anything, national firefighting resources are historically underfunded, and the current administration has cut funds, cut employees, and added bureaucracy.

[LongShortLong]

Eta. "The Lookout" YT fire channel discusses Dragon Bravo fire that burned North Rim. Skip over Norcal fires to about 24 minutes to the North Rim fire.
https://youtu.be/F5IzSCsLx7Q?t=1457
Zeke is a fire professional in northern California. Kinda new to YT. His website has extensive fire resources, worth a look. He shows some of the Dragon Bravo fire management documents, including an early "fire pro" model that showed <0.2% chance the fire would reach the park buildings. Says the Kaibab forest and park have been extensively managed with fire. Comments that the lodge would not get fire insurance in CA. Also comments that a Cal-Fire inspector would issue numerous citations for poor defensive prep. Satellite imagery shows the fire has mostly been good fire for the forest.

Afraid to edit my earlier post with the current forum state.

[evdog]

Here is a trip report from a bikepacking trip I did 10 yrs ago. Much of what I rode on the first and last days has burned in the White Sage fire. Lots of mature pinyon and juniper forest. And pine forest closer to Jacobs Lake.


https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...Kaibab-Plateau

[claymond]

Thanks for posting that Lookout YouTube Longshortlong. I hope people watch it.

I have a few anecdotal additions and quibbles:

If me or my supervisors based our actions on computer models-with no effective backup plan-I wouldn't be alive.

The fire started on a flat plateau about a mile off a road. He mentions access being "hard". Really?

He says something like "when you get a bunch of lightning fires and can't put them all out you have to manage them". There's a big difference between prioritizing/triaging fires when you dont have and can't get enough resources to staff them all sufficiently vs purposely not suppressing a fire. That can't be used as an excuse if it's not true, because people will never believe you when it is actually true.

Which leads into why this bothers me so much. The NPS fire management didn't just risk their personal liability and a historic building by not suppressing this fire. They risked all federal fire resources credibility. Credibility we need- to have a fully staffed workforce, have funding for effective large scale prescribed fire, get the public to buy into managed fires and prescribed fires, believe agencies and Incident commanders when they say"we have to go big box". Public agencies need the publics trust. That trust was already cracking, mostly because of falsehoods and ignorance. This just widened that crack a bit more, for reasons that are very real.

[cat in january]

NWS predicts wind six days in advance here and most places I have looked. That’s just on the public side. I would expect fire management would have more resources than the public.

[Meadow Skipper]

Well, I’d want to see the weather forecasts that were issued to the people that were overseeing the incident before I made a judgement there.

What I’m curious about is the contingency planning that should be a key part of any “let burn” fire. That element was crucial in my day - sometimes forecasts are wrong and sometimes plan A just doesn’t work out on fires. A complete plan, including contingencies, for the burn is essential.

It’s been a while, but I used to be deeply involved in my federal agency's (not NPS) Rx (prescribed) fire plans and it seems to me this should have had a prescribed set of conditions - boundaries, weather (past, present, expected), fuel conditions, available resources, contingencies, etc. And I used to be somewhat involved in other wildland agency and orgs. (fed, state, native, etc.) Rx activities in the region. The reason I mention that is ideally the contingency planning should include protection procedures for adjacent or nearby things you don’t want to burn. Now, I’m wondering what the NPS had lined up for contingency resources - suppression forces if the fire gets outside the prescribed burn area. And I wonder if they provided protection clearing (hardening) and resources around the village - seems like maybe not, not enough anyway.

I have no idea what the Grand Canyon’s current staffing looks like after the recent administration’s cutbacks, nor do I know if the NPS was counting on their neighbors (nat’l forests, BLM, reservations, etc) to provide firefighting resources and whether those resources were available due to commitments to other incidents and/or cutbacks. But it’ll be interesting to see.

The reason I wonder these things is I was peripherally involved when the NPS screwed up a Rx fire and it burned into Los Alamos - the Cerro Grande Fire (and also some smaller incidents). A guy I know directed the investigation (and I bet there’s going to be an investigation of this one) and it boiled down to “did they have a plan, was it a good plan, and did they follow the plan.” We’ll see, but at Cerro Grande there was confusion and delays in getting additional resources and unexpected weather. The NPS people didn’t expect the problems they encountered getting additional resources they needed.

[Meadow Skipper]

NWS predicts wind six days in advance here and most places I have looked. That’s just on the public side. I would expect fire management would have more resources than the public.

Sometimes the NWS is wrong, and I hear their staffing was cut substantially recently.

[KQ]

Crazy number of fires going on in SE WA and SW OR.

My Watch Duty app has been pinging non-stop for the last two days.

[bodywhomper]

Stephen Pyne interview from last week. He talks a lot about the fire on the Grand Canyon North Rim

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000717808171

[evdog]

Nova Scotia and New Brunswick closing crown land to the public due to fire danger.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...cism-1.7604618

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ichi-1.7605227


Cue the morons in the comment section: (yeah I should know better than to look, but its pretty good entertainment)

They dont want hikers and campers stumbling on their government arsonists

How does walking in the woods cause climate change, I&#39;m so confused.

So who pays the fine if a lightning strike start a fireAnd miscellaneous comments about vaccines and communism

[XXX-er]

there is a whole legion of old fuckers in BC who do not understand why there are no Martin Mars water bombers, the last one barely made it to the museum its final resting place, the Mars needed a huge crew to operate and they were constantly breaking down , nobody wanted them cuz too big to operate but they look impressive in action except they were never in action cuz broken/ no gov wants to pay

[Danno]

Smoke has been bad off and on, went camping near Aspen last weekend and Saturday and Sunday the smoke was awful.

Now there is a new wildfire about 10-15 miles from my place in Oak Creek. Oak Creek seems safe and they are throwing a lot of resources on the fire, plus there is a lake available close by for water pick up (Stagecoach). So I am hopeful, but still sucks.

[bodywhomper]

IMO, if it’s really bad, stay out of the smoke. Change plans. Close up the home, merv13 filter for the ac. Hepa filter or corsi rosenthal box in the house or indoor work place. I have spent time working outdoors in heavy smoke wearing an n95 contractors mask. It’s not fun when really hot. My company now strongly recommends it or requires it for field work under certain aqi levels. Remember that an n95 respirator mask won’t filter out all the smoke particulates or other toxins that may be burning as a result of structures burning.

I feel bad that there aren’t better solutions for those that must be outdoors or working in unfiltered WF smoke, especially those working hard in the WF suppression. It sucks.

[KQ]

Central Ferry Wildfire South Of Dusty In Whitman County State Mobilized-6,000 Acres-Be Ready Evacuation Orders Issued-No Boating On Snake Near Fire

August 13, 2025 Evan Ellis News

The large wildfire burning South of Dusty in Whitman County has been state mobilized to bring in fire crews from around Washington.

The blaze is now called the Central Ferry Fire and was mobilized at 1:30 this afternoon at the request of Whitman County Fire District 13 out of Onecho Chief Peter Appel. There are orders for residents near the blaze to be ready to evacuate. The fire is burning North of Central Ferry on the Snake River along State Route 127 heading East toward Penewawa Road.

The blaze started around 11:30 Wednesday morning when an old motorhome caught fire heading up the grade from the river. High winds quickly sent the flames into the canyon and nearby fields. Local officials estimate the fire has burned about 6,000 acres. It is torching in the Snake River Canyon between Central Ferry and Penewawa Road.

Several airplanes and a helicopter are attacking the flames from the air. Those air units are pulling water from the Snake. Local authorities have closed the river next to the fire to boaters to make room for aircraft as they refill.

A Whitman County “all-call” has been issued by dispatchers asking for any available fire units in the county to help fight the fire. State Route 127 South of Dusty is closed. The fire is burning stubble fields on top of the ridge and grass and brush in the canyons. The fire started in Whitman County Fire District 8 which is served by volunteers out of LaCrosse.

[old goat]

IMO, if it&rsquo;s really bad, stay out of the smoke. Change plans. Close up the home, merv13 filter for the ac. Hepa filter or corsi rosenthal box in the house or indoor work place. I have spent time working outdoors in heavy smoke wearing an n95 contractors mask. It&rsquo;s not fun when really hot. My company now strongly recommends it or requires it for field work under certain aqi levels. Remember that an n95 respirator mask won&rsquo;t filter out all the smoke particulates or other toxins that may be burning as a result of structures burning. I feel bad that there aren&rsquo;t better solutions for those that must be outdoors or working in unfiltered WF smoke, especially those working hard in the WF suppression. It sucks.

All good advice, but not all HVAC systems can handle MERV13--too much resistance for some. An N95 should do a pretty good job on smake particulates but as you say it won&#39;t stop poisonous gases and when they get moistened--as with sweat working outdoors in hot weath--they lose the electrostatic charge on the filter fibers that makes them work.

[bodywhomper]

Yeah. I’m aware of the problems with the merv[emoji637][emoji639] filters with some ac/blower units. We had box fans sucking on merv[emoji637][emoji639] filters. It worked pretty well. Not as good as cr boxes, though.

[Shredhead]

Smoke has been bad off and on, went camping near Aspen last weekend and Saturday and Sunday the smoke was awful.

Were you up near Ruedi?
We've been pretty lucky with the smoke this summer, until two weeks ago. We were up there windsurfing and I noticed how bad it was.
I started using Purpleair and noticed
the smoke seems to flow up the Frying Pan frequently.

https://map.purpleair.com/air-qualit...9.078/-107.101

I have Asthma and ride everyday.
I've been using PurpleAir to plan my rides.

[Danno]

We were at Difficult CG. Saturday morning was pretty bad, the afternoon not as much. Sunday morning driving down valley it was terrible.

[old goat]

IMO, if it&rsquo;s really bad, stay out of the smoke. Change plans. Close up the home, merv13 filter for the ac. Hepa filter or corsi rosenthal box in the house or indoor work place. I have spent time working outdoors in heavy smoke wearing an n95 contractors mask. It&rsquo;s not fun when really hot. My company now strongly recommends it or requires it for field work under certain aqi levels. Remember that an n95 respirator mask won&rsquo;t filter out all the smoke particulates or other toxins that may be burning as a result of structures burning. I feel bad that there aren&rsquo;t better solutions for those that must be outdoors or working in unfiltered WF smoke, especially those working hard in the WF suppression. It sucks.

Big piece in the NYT today about wildfire fighters dying from the effects of unmasked exposure to smoke. Paywalled of course. I think you can use this link if you give them some info.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/17/u...smid=url-share

[yeahman]

You mean breathing smoke all day for days on end isn't good for you? I'm shocked.

[old goat]

Its a bit more detailed than that. Like why wildland firefighters don't wear respirators while urban firefighters and firefighters in other countries do.

[bodywhomper]

I believe some of the details from this article would apply for using filtration/respirator masks

https://healthybuildings.hsph.harvar...ht-on-filters/


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[yeahman]

They should at least have access to N95 masks. I wore N95 masks for 15 years. I got used to the discomfort. Eventually I felt more uncomfortable NOT wearing one when the situation called for it. I literally felt oddly naked and exposed without it. Plus it was easy to tell how shitty I felt at the end of the day with no mask, but never felt that way if I wore it.

We can see where this is headed. Gigantic lawsuit.

[old goat]

The NYT article was featured on PBS news tonight FWIW.

[bodywhomper]

https://youtu.be/kPEqg1qPbZw?si=3SIWnCc_b

https://youtu.be/kPEqg1qPbZw?si=3SIWnCc_b8sV6uMj

[emoji[emoji642]44]sV[emoji642]uMj


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