2024-2025 NBA thread: who wants to buy a Duck Boat?!?!

[J. Barron DeJong]

I know, but I left that part aside due to my fandom. I assume it's because Steph missed three games.

The rankings were per 82 games played. Missing games aren’t bringing him down.

[MarcusBrody]

I know, but I left that part aside due to my fandom. I assume it's because Steph missed three games.

Yep, if you look at the total eRAPTOR score, he would be fourth, behind just Jokic, Tatum, and SGA. He just takes a hit as with missing 3/11 games, he hasn't played as much (which hurts his WAR) and he's projected to not play as much (which hurts his WAR/82).

[J. Barron DeJong]

Yep, if you look at the total eRAPTOR score, he would be fourth, behind just Jokic, Tatum, and SGA. He just takes a hit as with missing 3/11 games, he hasn't played as much (which hurts his WAR) and he's projected to not play as much (which hurts his WAR/82).

Ah. My bad.

Thought the /82 was scaling for games the player had played, not the team.

So RAPTOR is good now?

[bearcub69]

Ah. My bad.

Thought the /82 was scaling for games the player had played, not the team.

So RAPTOR is good now?

only if it supports our takes/narratives!

[TahoeJ]

Basketball just has too many intangibles that aren't recorded by stats. For example, someone statistically might look like an elite perimeter defender because most of the time he's backed by one of the best paint and help defenders in the league and he knows he needs to push his opponent right towards the top of the key and it's safer to get beat on the low-side because good luck attacking the rim with that guy back there. But then when a lesser defender is behind him suddenly he's getting burned and allowing X points per drive or whatever. You can obviously come up with hundreds of such examples on both sides of the ball. At the end of the day basketball simply isn't the same as a pitcher facing a hitter (not that baseball doesn't have intangibles too, but they're less impactful in comparison). You can say the same thing for football. It's just a waste of time IMO.

Buddy of mine from college is the smartest data scientist I know and he came to this exact same conclusion. He was trying to build various models for the NFL (he worked for a stats company that contracts with several teams) but said it was a fool's errand and anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves. ESPN doing QBR was a noble effort, but it's still extremely flawed. Having said that, team level data / stats can be far more determinative than individual data.

Oh and he said PER is one of the most overrated stats in all of sports. Even John Hollinger admitted it was deeply flawed.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Basketball just has too many intangibles that aren't recorded by stats. For example, someone statistically might look like an elite perimeter defender because most of the time he's backed by one of the best paint and help defenders in the league and he knows he needs to push his opponent right towards the top of the key and it's safer to get beat on the low-side because good luck attacking the rim with that guy back there. But then when a lesser defender is behind him suddenly he's getting burned and allowing X points per drive or whatever. You can obviously come up with hundreds of such examples on both sides of the ball. At the end of the day basketball simply isn't the same as a pitcher facing a hitter (not that baseball doesn't have intangibles too, but they're less impactful in comparison). You can say the same thing for football. It's just a waste of time IMO.

Buddy of mine from college is the smartest data scientist I know and he came to this exact same conclusion. He was trying to build various models for the NFL (he worked for a stats company that contracts with several teams) but said it was a fool's errand and anyone who says otherwise is lying to themselves. ESPN doing QBR was a noble effort, but it's still extremely flawed. Having said that, team level data / stats can be far more determinative than individual data.

Oh and he said PER is one of the most overrated stats in all of sports. Even John Hollinger admitted it was deeply flawed.

I’m open to criticisms of it being less than perfect, but I’d push back not being able to draw solid inferences because there aren’t discrete events taking place.

There are statistical methods to tease that type of inference out of large data sets (my wife’s Ph.D. was heavy in statistical methods, I’m ignorant of them).

I’d also say that just because it couldn’t be done with football doesn’t mean it can’t be done with basketball. There are way more ‘events’ to track in a basketball game, and there are way fewer individuals involved in each one of them.

RAPTOR could be a very flawed, I just don’t consider those arguments conclusive (but don’t have to knowledge to say it is or isn’t).

The Hollinger ratings appear to give more ‘weird looking’ ratings than RAPTOR, from what I’ve seen.

[TahoeJ]

Basketball is even more difficult than football due to its fluidity. Whatever, if you want to like RAPTOR or anything else by all means have fun with it, but it’s deeply flawed.

[54-46]

Curry isn’t what he was for 82 games but nobody wants to play against him and Draymond in the playoffs. I am enjoying what they’re doing early season (didn’t see what happened with Memphis)

RAPTOR schamaptor - have fun with it

I just appreciate watching the dude. So inspirational!


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[concretejungle]

Nope.

Jokic
Embiid
Doncic
Lebron
Steph
Durant
Davis
Tatum
Giannis
SGA

You're taking Mitchell over any of those guys?

Also, Booker, Ant, Haliburton, Brunson, Wemby, Brown, Ja are all in the discussion with Mitchell.

I'm taking him over Embiid.

[BmillsSkier]

14-0

[TahoeJ]

10-2 with one of the losses coming from the 14-0 team, and the other with Curry getting injured during the game. Pretty stoked as well. It would be hilarious to get a GS / Cavs rematch but without LeBron.

(just to be clear, I do not consider the Warriors the favorites in the West - regular season games with a ton of depth are different than a playoff series)

[MarcusBrody]

Jokic was out last night for the birth of his second kid. Without him, the Nuggets lost to the Pelicans, who were missing 6 of their top 8 players to injury. The Pelicans were literally starting a two way player and of the 9 players who played, one was a rookie, 4 were G Leaguers/two way players and one was Javonte Green, who I had to look up to realize that he wasn't. And yet the Nuggets couldn't handle that.

I think Murray is a good supporting player, but the fact that the Nuggets gave him a full max extension with a year before the end of his contract (and after a bad playoffs/Olympics) is GM malpractice.

[Crusty]

As a Nuggets fan, I can't argue with any of that.

[MarcusBrody]

The Pelicans just gave the Lakers with. LeBron and AD a real run for their money, so maybe those fringe guys are getting it together after playing together a few times.

[BobMc]

7-8, don’t be sleeping on the Pistons. The League Pass darlings, every game is a nail biter at the end. Tonight was finally a boring game, throttled the Wizards from the get go.

Tonight they finally cut down on the turnovers, Cade is a high usage player and has the turnovers to prove it. Tonight he finally had a solid game without the usual mistakes that come with handling the load.

Malik Beasley has been a solid addition, Tobias Harris has been mediocre, Tim Hardaway was contributing till splitting his head open. The biggest reason for the improved record has been Jaden Ivey. He still plays reckless at times, but the dude is fast as fuck and can get to the hoop in the wink of an eye. He doesn’t use his quickness on defense quite yet, but he’ll get there.

And yeah, that ESPN player rank is some bullshit. Cade Cunningham at 67, fuck those clickbait dickweeds. Another triple double tonight, last week he had three in a row. Quietly goes out there every night and dominates.

/Pistonshomer

[BmillsSkier]

15-0

[BobMc]

15-0

They’re looking tough, I don’t see them losing until January 27th.

[riser4]

15-1

[t-the-east]

Great game to watch. Celts looked solid

[riser4]

Well, they did let the Cavs whittle away at a commanding lead. Final score of course is what matters.

[BmillsSkier]

Great game. Refs were letting them play.

I have to think that if Darius Garland is anything remotely resembling the 22 ppg he was averaging coming into tonight that its a different result.

Oh well. Tied in the NBA CUP!

[54-46]

Fun game! Both teams looked pretty good and had their runs/moments.


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[riser4]

Great game. Refs were letting them play.

I have to think that if Darius Garland is anything remotely resembling the 22 ppg he was averaging coming into tonight that its a different result.

Oh well. Tied in the NBA CUP!

Ya. Cavs were down some talent.

[EWG]

Just want to mention out loud that two things are currently happening:

The Cavs are on now on pace to set the record for the most wins in a season even though we're almost 25% done. A fast start is one thing. This is something else. I mean, there's no chance it happens, right? But awesome to watch real time. And a shout out to my man Ty Jerome, back from a busted ankle all last year.

Jokic is on pace to have the greatest individual season in history. I assume he'll wear out and drop off. But as of right now he's second in points, first in rebounds, second in assists, second in 3 pt FG percentage, and I think he currently is posting what would be the best PER and +/- ratings of all time. Nuggets are historically great on offense when he's on the floor and historically bad when he's off it. It's ridiculous. And almost no one can get their games on tv, including most of the Denver market.

That combined with all the other storylines out there (GSW great again, OKC rollin etc), means this is just a fun as shit NBA season so far. Love this stuff. At this point I have to check the box scores pretty much every night, and for like 5 different things.

[riser4]

So far, Boston is the only team that can and has beat the Cavs. This is really funny because besides the Dubs, the other two teams Boston lost to are the Hawks and the Pacers, both of which are under water in the standings. I'm not sure if this says more about Boston or about Cleveland.