Wildfire ‘24

[bodywhomper]

Fairly updated (afternoon and evening) fire perimeter maps are up on watch duty. The Eaton fire is pretty close to I-280 and edging closer Monrovia.

My recently widowed mother upped her anti on her go-bag and now keeping it in her car.

I thought this post from Dr Kolden on Bluesky was interesting:

https://bsky.app/profile/pyrogeog.bs.../3lfd7je7gw22l


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[evdog]

Jesus
Fucking
Christ!

People are such ignorant assholes.

FIFY

[muted reborn]

Jesus
Fucking
Christ!

People are such fucking idiots.

Drew Tabke said on IG he's heard many helis had to stop and land because of drones last night. He's monitoring some responder radio I guess.

I don't see how the footage is useful when people will report you if you post it.

[NBABUCKS1]

going forward you'd think they'd probably really up the their prescribed burn frequency. Some big policy changes coming to building code, vegetation and management of lands.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

Prescribed burns are tricky, especially in areas as densely populated as southern California.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

You really can't do prescribed burns in chapparal around neighborhoods. The vegetation has evolved to burn fast and hot as a normal fire cycle. Manzanita has evolved to literally burn its competitors for water and light to death and then grow back fast to take advantage of the room, until it needs to burn again in a few years to make room again. And forget mechanical thinning (aka "raking" the forest ala the orange shitstain), even if you could do that in terrain with stacked up topo lines, you're just recreating the fire cycle and it will grow right back and be ready to burn again in a few years.

The solution will have to be rebuilding with defensible space, fire resistant construction, and moving to a "shelter in place" response instead of mass evacuations like they've started to in Australia.

[Boomer28]

going forward you'd think they'd probably really up the their prescribed burn frequency. Some big policy changes coming to building code, vegetation and management of lands.

This isn't far-out forest lands where they do the burn mitigation on the reg. This is dense, urban hillsides that have all this dead brush that grows up every winter/spring. It's in close proximity to homes, schools, businesses, etc. The USFS looses control of prescribed burns from time to time in way out there parts so imagine them starting a smaller version of what happened just this week. Best case is having ash/smoke all over these neighborhoods and a bunch of pissed off citizens.

There are already insurance-mandated defensible space regs (Tahoe peeps know this life well) which I'm sure will be beefed up, but a lot of the terrain here, again is like fucking Afghanistan. I used to mountain bike up off Mandeville to dirt Mulholland and down the Temescal single track and the other fire roads. We're talking slopes in excess of 45 degrees all over, skree, rocks, loose dirt/sand, etc. I dropped my water bottle once and it took me almost an hour to retrieve...

Changes are coming but I'm thinking the main one will be updated construction standards to make the structures effectively fire proof.

[Boomer28]

going forward you'd think they'd probably really up the their prescribed burn frequency. Some big policy changes coming to building code, vegetation and management of lands.

This isn't far-out forest lands where they do the burn mitigation on the reg. This is dense, urban hillsides that have all this dead brush that grows up every winter/spring. It's in close proximity to homes, schools, businesses, etc. The USFS looses control of prescribed burns from time to time in way out there parts so imagine them starting a smaller version of what happened just this week. Best case is having ash/smoke all over these neighborhoods and a bunch of pissed off citizens.

There are already insurance-mandated defensible space regs (Tahoe peeps know this life well) which I'm sure will be beefed up, but a lot of the terrain here, again is like fucking Afghanistan. I used to mountain bike up off Mandeville to dirt Mulholland and down the Temescal single track and the other fire roads. We're talking slopes in excess of 45 degrees all over, skree, rocks, loose dirt/sand, etc. I dropped my water bottle once and it took me almost an hour to retrieve...

Changes are coming but I'm thinking the main one will be updated construction standards to make the structures effectively fire proof.

[byates1]

Is the high end property really worth anything? It's uninsurable, taxed to the tits. Who will rebuild and can that area command that premium?

Seems like a huge reality check on ultra wealthy enclaves?

[rideit]

https://www.reuters.com/breakingview...es-2025-01-09/

[evdog]

The rich will be able to rebuild.

But there are plenty of people living in Palisades who are not rich, who live there because they or their family bought homes there many decades ago when it was more affordable. They will rely on insurance to re-build, if they have it (and they do not get fucked over by insurance). If not, they will probably be forced to sell. And the rich and/or predatory developers will swoop in and buy those properties. The land will still have value. Hopefully those residents get a decent enough return they can buy elsewhere.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Is the high end property really worth anything? It's uninsurable, taxed to the tits. Who will rebuild and can that area command that premium?

Seems like a huge reality check on ultra wealthy enclaves?

This isn't the first fire to go through here. I could drive through that area and point out which houses have been rebuilt after which fire and in many cases, fires (plural).

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

The rich will be able to rebuild.

But there are plenty of people living in Palisades who are not rich, who live there because they or their family bought homes there many decades ago when it was more affordable. They will rely on insurance to re-build, if they have it (and they do not get fucked over by insurance). If not, they will probably be forced to sell. And the rich and/or predatory developers will swoop in and buy those properties. The land will still have value. Hopefully those residents get a decent enough return they can buy elsewhere.

Larry Ellison owns at least a dozen places on Carbon beach, the strip along the water that got wiped out. He'll rebuild and probably pick up more places while he's at it.

But that's true in the Palisades, I'm betting there were a lot of underinsured places in regards to present property values and rebuilding costs. Someone I went to school with got burned over in the Palisades, their home was valued at around $5 million. A lot of that appreciation happened in the last few years, if they were to try to rebuild for $2.5 million, with current building costs, no way will they be able to recreate what they had.

[byates1]

Seems most likely that insurance company will do everything.in their power to deny/lowball. Like mentioned above the long term residences which have swen the most appreciation will suffer. I'm betting a ton of wealthy ppl call it and bounce. Build /buy in a different place.

Yet another opportunity for wealth to move from the less fortunate to the very well off.

[byates1]

Oracle de Rogaine

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Wow, a Joe Rogan prediction that everyone knows already and has already happened before.

[skaredshtles]

Wow, a Joe Rogan prediction that everyone knows already and has already happened before.

This. What a fuckin' dope.

[byates1]

Resentful

[skaredshtles]

I think I'll start referring to Rogan as Nostradumbass.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Resentful

Here, learn something. https://www.lafire.com/famous_fires/...gaIncident.htm

[dunfree]

Is the high end property really worth anything? It's uninsurable, taxed to the tits. Who will rebuild and can that area command that premium?

Seems like a huge reality check on ultra wealthy enclaves?

California property, famously highly taxed on appreciation

[byates1]

Here, learn something. https://www.lafire.com/famous_fires/...gaIncident.htm

Joe Rogan predicted you would post this

[J. Barron DeJong]

California property, famously highly taxed on appreciation

<like button>

They get to rebuild and maintain their current tax rates as long as the rebuild is largely the same as what was there.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Joe Rogan predicted you would post this

Joe Rogan can actually read.

[byates1]

^ not only that but he is an Oracle. And also has a podcast.