long range winter predictions?

[freshies]

ok, its about that time of year when i start getting all geeked out on weather. anyone know if NOAA has come out yet with their snowfall predictions yet for winter 04/05? couldn't find it on the site. is the sierra in for a sweet winter? if ya got links and sites ya like that have some beta on snowfall predictions for the coming season, share them!

[Artie Fufkin]

Here is the link to the NOAA outlooks page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...OKS_index.html

And what was updated 8/31/05:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...churchill.html.

Precip outlook looks neutral in Rockies and West Coast, predicted temps look above average.

[mrw]

HERE IS MY WINTER PREDICTION...

some parts of the country will get snow early and others, rain. Those maggots getting snow will babble endlessly about it causing the maggots getting rain to want to pound the living shit out of those with snow. In certain areas of the country, words like "sick" and "epic" will be repeated endlessly. the parts of the country without snow will blame George Bush.Those with snow will give thanks to some mythical god. Eventually, spring will come and one or two mags will continue posting ski tr's until mid July.

[Red Baron]

Basically, the long range charts suggest a slow start to the season for Idaho and Montana, and equal chances of above/normal/below precip totals for the rest of the western US (in other words, the data is inconclusive).

They also suggest May/June/July should be wet in the PNW. (big suprise, huh? - remember, long range forecasts are based largely on the past)

The temperature maps are a bit more interesting; they show above normal temps are likely in the heart of winter for much of Utah, all of Colorado, and parts of the NW.

This isn't necessarily bad, since we're only talking about a few degree difference from normal. It's always cold enough to snow during winter from about 8500' and up, so the above normal temps would only have a big effect on places that are very low elevation, relative to other areas.

Let me put it this way, I would worry if you're a Brian Head or Airzona Snowbowl skier, but other than that, it won't be a big deal.

El Nino/La Nina isn't too much of a factor right now, we're kind of inbetween them now and will likely stay that way into early 2006.

[72Twenty]

It will probably be colder this winter than it is out there today.

In fact, I'm willing to bet money on it.

[Free Range Lobster]

Some white shit will fall from the sky.

And it will be cold.

HAS ANYONE MENTIONED YET THAT IT WILL BE COLD?

[bagtagley]

HAS ANYONE MENTIONED YET THAT IT WILL BE COLD?

72Twenty did.

I predict that, regardless of the weather, work is gonna get in the way of skiing.

[Blurred]

ok, its about that time of year when i start getting all geeked out on weather. anyone know if NOAA has come out yet with their snowfall predictions yet for winter 04/05?

No, it's not out yet. They're still working on their predictions on the 1983-84 Winter.

Predicting the past-so hot right now.

[funkendrenchman]

Mount Baker will receive more snow in February this year than it did during February last year.

Utah will receive more snow than Colorado.

Colorado will receive more snow than the Poconos.

It won't snow in Miami.

And I am not even a meterologist, but I do watch the Weather Channel.

[K-Stormchaser]

Mount Baker will receive more snow in February this year than it did during February last year.

Utah will receive more snow than Colorado.

Colorado will receive more snow than the Poconos.

It won't snow in Miami.

And I am not even a meterologist, but I do watch the Weather Channel.

and by the sound of it, you must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night...

[GFP]

Colorado will receive more snow than the Poconos.

Hopefully

[Dromond]

I predict that wherever I am this winter it will snow more than where I am now, (that would be new hampshire.)

[Kya]

HERE IS MY WINTER PREDICTION...

some parts of the country will get snow early and others, rain. Those maggots getting snow will babble endlessly about it causing the maggots getting rain to want to pound the living shit out of those with snow. In certain areas of the country, words like "sick" and "epic" will be repeated endlessly. the parts of the country without snow will blame George Bush.Those with snow will give thanks to some mythical god. Eventually, spring will come and one or two mags will continue posting ski tr's until mid July.

That was pretty fuckin funny.

[Xdog]

Long range winter predictions...

Are useless. Any other questions?

[snowsprite]

Red Baron, I'm not going to say what I heard for the East Coast...but anyway do you think it's true?

Sprite

Basically, the long range charts suggest a slow start to the season for Idaho and Montana, and equal chances of above/normal/below precip totals for the rest of the western US (in other words, the data is inconclusive).

They also suggest May/June/July should be wet in the PNW. (big suprise, huh? - remember, long range forecasts are based largely on the past)

The temperature maps are a bit more interesting; they show above normal temps are likely in the heart of winter for much of Utah, all of Colorado, and parts of the NW.

This isn't necessarily bad, since we're only talking about a few degree difference from normal. It's always cold enough to snow during winter from about 8500' and up, so the above normal temps would only have a big effect on places that are very low elevation, relative to other areas.

Let me put it this way, I would worry if you're a Brian Head or Airzona Snowbowl skier, but other than that, it won't be a big deal.

El Nino/La Nina isn't too much of a factor right now, we're kind of inbetween them now and will likely stay that way into early 2006.

[milton]

EC forecast is easy, it never changes.

17ft of snow in December, all decimated by 3 days of rain and 68 degree temps the first week of Jan. The rest of Jan. will feature below zero temps and very dry. Things turn around early Feb with some decent storms. March will feature numerous 2+ ft. dumps of super wet snow that will all melt by mid april.

[Vinman]

as quoted from farmers almanac dot com

"The East is on tap for a crazy ride, with the temperatures and weather initially leading into the winter season seeming mild, but the bulk of the winter will turn out to be unusually cold, with plenty of snow especially in the northern sections,”

[Ireallyliketoski2]

I'll drink too much at least one night.

[grrrr]

This isn't necessarily bad, since we're only talking about a few degree difference from normal. It's always cold enough to snow during winter from about 8500' and up, so the above normal temps would only have a big effect on places that are very low elevation, relative to other areas.

Oh, and us PNWers should take heart from THAT?

[jonesy]

.....fucking rain.

[bdog]

Oh, and us PNWers should take heart from THAT?

I think we may be screwed in the NW. George Taylor, the state climatolagist for the State of Oregon has said that this winter will be colder and wetter than normal, it will be very severe. He also said LAST winter would be colder and wetter than normal! He has not had an accurate prediction in over 10 years! On the other hand, he is due to be right eh?

[summit]

I predict icy conditions for the east.