Ukraine

[J. Barron DeJong]

I dont know the answer to how much hurt the refinery attacks are causing, but it sounds like you are confusing refining with fuel storage?

[MultiVerse]

The rate of Ukrainian refinery attacks are increasing this year. There are already nearly as many successful attacks so far this year as there were all of last year. Earlier this month Ukrainian drones struck Ufa, one of Russia's largest oil refineries. Strikes have tangibly reduced Russian refining capacity by about 11-percent. 11-percent is enough to push Putin into granting concessions covering energy infrastructure. Putin desperately wants to stop Kyiv from carrying out even more attacks of this kind

[jono]

Agreed that the first proof is in the fact that Russia wants a ceasefire on infrastructure first because they're losing more on that front. Black Sea is a close second.

But if you need proof of gas shortages you can probably just look at the horses, donkeys and kick-powered scooters being issued to Russian soldiers. Prices can be manipulated. When you need a Razor to get you to the front line the problems are undeniable.

[LongShortLong]

Fuel demand is nearly inelastic, so an 11 percent supply cut should cause a giant price rise. Or shortages if price controls are used. Assuming the 11% number is right (did a Russian refiner publish that?), there should be visible effects. If it's correct, I take the lack of major effects to indicate it is a reduction in capacity, not supply. And that more capacity needs to go offline to markedly affect supply.

I don't think donkeys or front line shortages necessarily tell us anything about refining. Nor are anecdotes indicative of much. Was there a donkey on the front line? Most likely so. Are the Russians using them widely because of fuel shortage? I've seen no evidence of either. Active front lines are often fubar. My guess is Russia's front line troubles are mostly due to drone attacks at the front line. (Ukraine's are due to drone attacks, heavy Russian bombing, being outnumbered/outsupplied, and dependence on flaky allies)

[Meconium]

I'm guessing the donkeys carry some crap in but probably consumed mostly as food rations.

[jono]

If you can't compare the present use of scooters and big animals (which can't have an infinite supply, either) with the state of things 3 years ago ("Russia is just holding back their best fighters tanks missiles and secret weapons--wait until they really commit!") and understand the likely causes I'm not sure this is for you. Intel is not a criminal case, and proof positive is not on offer. But the evidence is there.

[MultiVerse]

Several things:

- Fuel demand is not inelastic. Gasoline demand more responsive to price changes than economists once thought

- Inflation is increasing in Russia, which means shortages exist including to some extent petroleum products

- The 11-percent decrease is based oil market analysis showing Russian refinery is decreased from around 5.6-to-5.0 million barrels per day, or about 11-percent

The aftermath of the Ufimsky oil refinery – one of Russia’s largest – strike:
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1896330776045924488

Novozybkov oil station strike 800 miles away from Ukraine:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...energy-empire/

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2020/0616

[Viva]

I'm guessing the donkeys carry some crap in but probably consumed mostly as food rations.

Donkeys and mules are useful for transporting cargo over very rugged terrain, and when limiting noise is of the essence.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[Skistack]

Plus they taste delicious and are packed with protein.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[mcski]

Ever seen horsegag.mpeg?

[LongShortLong]

The 11-percent decrease is based oil market analysis showing Russian refinery is decreased from around 5.6-to-5.0 million barrels per day, or about 11-percent

Thanks.

Suggests that refinery targets are viable. Ukraine's expected massive increase in drone production may have notable effects in 2025. Moderated by Russia's ability to compensate.

The Fed report suggests real Russian fuel prices should have increased 30-40%, assuming Russians behave similarly to the populations studied.

[MultiVerse]

FWIW, a little over a year ago Russia banned gasoline exports to mitigate a sharp rise in gas prices. The Kremlin recently extended the ban through August of this year. While there are exemptions, a moratorium on gasoline exports from what was once the world's largest oil exporter shows the extent of domestic shortages and soaring prices

[J. Barron DeJong]

Does not bode well for the negotiations:

A U.S. government negotiator with Russia babbling Kremlin propaganda to a fascist-Russia-supporting propagandist: What times we live in.

It’s clear from this that the only difference between Steve Witkoff’s and Vladmir Putin’s views on the war in Ukraine is that Putin actually knows the names of all the five Ukrainian regions he wants to keep.

Video: https://bsky.app/profile/euanmacdona.../3lkxcua36zc2i

[Bunion 2020]

“I even thought we had an approval from Hamas. Maybe that is just me getting duped,” Witkoff admitted. “But I thought we were there. And evidently we weren’t. This is on Hamas. The United States stands with the state of Israel. That’s a 100 percent commitment. We have expressed that.”

So very fucked.

[Meconium]

https://x.com/rshereme/status/1903731960515596593

[RTsucks]

Looks like someone invited putin to their signal chat. Now who was it...oh the entire fucking cabinet. Even Lil Marco. What a good boy, that little turn coat terrier.

[highangle]

https://x.com/rshereme/status/1903731960515596593

linking Xitter is very poor taste

[summit]

^cut out that fucking tribalist "only bsky" pro echo chamber bullshit

He linked to a pro Ukraine vid that is keeping twitter from being a total echo chamber

[Mazderati]

Don't be so tribalist.

[jono]

Powmag forums need your support now more than ever.

https://bsky.app/profile/rshereme.bs.../3lkyco6oil225

[banzai]

Musk should buy out Signal too

[MultiVerse]

Get the cane, yank WhiskyLeaks off the air.

[highangle]

^cut out that fucking tribalist "only bsky" pro echo chamber bullshit He linked to a pro Ukraine vid that is keeping twitter from being a total echo chamber

Glad you have the time pick through every low-effort shitpost link to boycotted fucking Nazi enterprises.

Gotta do what you can to support Muskrat Oligarchy and Trumpski Mir, I suppose. You fucking peckerwood.

[summit]

^uh huh... if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you in Crimea

[J. Barron DeJong]

Yes, it would be a shame if Twitter became a right wing echo-chamber.

Whoops! Too late:

https://bsky.app/profile/mcuban.bsky.../3ll2wtrxp6k2i