Ukraine

[twat]

Hey cono,

I remember you mentioned you‘ve been in the Vietnam war! Correct?

I also recall you saying you are British living in the United States.

So what’s true? Or it is multiple personalities you have?

[teleee]

Hey cono,

I remember you mentioned you‘ve been in the Vietnam war! Correct?

I also recall you saying you are British living in the United States.

So what’s true? Or it is multiple personalities you have?

Pretty sure he also said he is a Canadian citizen, dude has a plethora of personalities.


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[skaredshtles]

Pretty sure he also said he is a Canadian citizen, dude has a plethora of personalities.

I thought he was from Peru? Or was it Chile? Maybe Ecuador?

[Viva]

Ukraine is about to buckle.

Give examples.

Simple negotiation 101, you want to start with as much as possible.

Provided that there's some opportunity and some trade readily apparent to both sides. [

Look, suppose that the primary US goal here is to bring about the much-invoked "negotiated settlement." Either we would be a principal in the settlement, or we would support Ukraine in her own negotiations (there's gonna be a lot more going than simply "Russia want land" No NATO for Ukraine").

What would the US offer in such a scenario, exactly? Biden could be "nicer" to Russia, through relaxing sanctions, cutting off all assistance to Ukraine, maybe financing a Russian gas pipeline, etc.

I bet that Putin would have been happy had the US to continued to express more confusion, obstruction, inefficiency.

I'm looking forward to see whether or not this relaxation missile-usage changes the overall calculus of trying to end the conflict.,

[Cono Este]

Ukraine is losing land faster than at any point this yr.

You know what is really sad though? Joe Biden probably held off this latest change in ROE’s for QUEMALA.

[Viva]

One of the conclusions from the following article:

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...astern-ukraine


"Ukrainian forces have stalled Russia's main offensive efforts for the Summer-Autumn 2024 campaign and forced the Russian military command to expend significant resources and valuable time on advances that have not brought Russian forces geographically closer to their main operational objective. Ukraine’s ability to trade space for time undermines the Kremlin's theory of victory and narrative of an inevitable Russian victory in Ukraine.

[rod9301]

One of the conclusions from the following article:

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...astern-ukraine


"Ukrainian forces have stalled Russia's main offensive efforts for the Summer-Autumn 2024 campaign and forced the Russian military command to expend significant resources and valuable time on advances that have not brought Russian forces geographically closer to their main operational objective. Ukraine’s ability to trade space for time undermines the Kremlin's theory of victory and narrative of an inevitable Russian victory in Ukraine.

I don't necessarily agree or disagree, but doesn't Ukraine have the same exact problem, ie losing a lot of soldiers and equipment?

Maybe the Russians lose more people, even though it's hard to really know, but they also have a lot more people.

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[ex-powderbroker]

They have more people but forcing everyone to serve is not possible because Russia's war is not actually one of defense but of expansion and Putin's ego. If casualties start to hit Moscow and St Pete Putin will catch a bullet. If the casualties hit the caucuses further it will foment more unrest and another Chechnya. So now all Putin can do is buy meat from NK at 20k per and give you some extra dividends to tell everyone that the bear must be appeased!

Ukranians do not have the same luxury of choices.

[ex-powderbroker]

They have more people but forcing everyone to serve is not possible because Russia's war is not actually one of defense but of expansion and Putin's ego. If casualties start to hit Moscow and St Pete Putin will catch a bullet. If the casualties hit the caucuses further it will foment more unrest and another Chechnya. So now all Putin can do is buy meat from NK at 20k per and give you some extra dividends to tell everyone that the bear must be appeased!

Ukranians do not have the same luxury of choices.

[MultiVerse]

It's the thousandth day of Russia's three day war and Putin supporters are still saying the same thing. Same as it ever was

[Viva]

...doesn't Ukraine have the same exact problem, ie losing a lot of soldiers and equipment?

Putin definitely seems to be forcing the issue about as hard as he can, and Ukraine is also suffering from attrition, not suprisingly:

“what we're seeing right now is the expected "snap-through" as a few hard points fall: Selydove, Vuhledar, Toretsk which is still partially contested. Chasiv Yar still holds but could fall. There is also an exposed pocket still under Ukrainian control south of Pokrovsk and north of Vuhledar, so another little leap in territorial control is expected in the next week or so”.

These small territorial gains come at a hudge cost in Russian equipment and especially manpower that is trending geometrically (vide supra). I don’t feel that this loss of territory is due to Ukrainian collapse, but rather, an increasing Russian tolerance for casualties.

The total amount of territory captured/threatened is still pretty minor and, so far as I can tell, not so vital. What’s really important, though, is how well Ukraine can limit her own casualties, and how well it can prepare next lines of defense. This is consistant with the nature of Fabian strategy- it looks really bad, right up until one’s opponent reaches their hard limit.

[Cono Este]

Jesus fucking Christ.

I’ve had to,listen to so many false hopes and promises in here, it never ends,

Russia is running out of ammo! clowns singing the HIMARS song, f-16’s !

Spring offensive? Turn the laws of numbers on ourselves! Charge of the nothing to lose brigade!

These poor bastard cannot fight in perpetuity.

Fuck you mother fuckers with that Putin shit. Clearly just a game to you.

[summit]

Jesus fucking Christ.

I’ve had to,listen to so many false hopes and promises in here, it never ends,

These poor bastard cannot fight in perpetuity.

Ever heard of the 30 years war? The 100 years war? How long were we in Iraq and Afghanistan? How long was Viet Nam? How long was Korea? How long was WW2? This war is not yet 3 years.

If the question is whether Russians get tired of fighting a war of expansion before Ukrainians get tired of fighting a war of survival, Russia quits first every scenario in which the war is protracted. Acceptable losses for Russia are vastly smaller than for Ukraine. That is why the war was to be a "3 day special operation!"

If the question is who can logistically sustain longer, Ukraine also wins every time so long as the West doesn't abandon them because Russia's GDP is fucking tiny compared to Ukraine's allies. Russia has 5% of NATO's GDP. Even South Korea has 50% of the GDP PPP of Russia.

The fact that Russia is able to, over the short term, spend more than 10% of their GDP on the war would never overpower a determined West. The only reason Ukraine hasn't won is because the West has stupidly chosen to limit its support levels to "life support." What that means is that there is a lot more room for the West to support Ukraine in an overwhelming way, whether or not a big player bows out. Russia does not have that ability.

[Cono Este]

Id agree with you if the west was mobilizing. Re tooling, and preparing for war like we should be. But we’re not, we’re too busy fighting amongst ourselves over which bathroom to use.

I respect many minds in here, but logistics wins wars. Try fighting a country with a 1500 km border and rail lines up to the front. Then do it with restrictions.

“Time” always runs out for Americas “friends”. It’s a factor every time.

[summit]

^I watched this after making my last post. I suggest you do as well



One of Perun's very best analyses, and he is regularly excellent, fair, any balanced with a logistician's perspective. i watch at 2x speed.

[MultiVerse]

Russia is running out of ammo! clowns singing the HIMARS song, f-16’s !

Fuck you mother fuckers with that Putin shit. Clearly just a game to you.

Id agree with you if the west was mobilizing. Re tooling, and preparing for war like we should be. But we’re not, we’re too busy fighting amongst ourselves over which bathroom to use.

I respect many minds in here, but logistics wins wars. Try fighting a country with a 1500 km border and rail lines up to the front. Then do it with restrictions.

“Time” always runs out for Americas “friends”. It’s a factor every time.

Ukrainian armed forces carried out strikes in Kursk inside Russian territory with ATACMS. Yet every time there was a discussion about aiding Ukraine whether it was Javelins, artillery, HIMARS, APCs, tanks, Jets — OMG ITS WW3! Every. Single. Time.

Has nuclear war begun? Has World War III begun? Blaming Ukraine for provoking WW3 is like blaming Poland or Churchill for causing WW2. You literally need to think like Putin to pull that one off

[Cono Este]

Ukrainian armed forces carried out strikes in Kursk inside Russian territory with ATACMS. Yet every time there was a discussion about aiding Ukraine whether it was Javelins, artillery, HIMARS, APCs, tanks, Jets — OMG ITS WW3! Every. Single. Time.

Has nuclear war begun? Has World War III begun? Blaming Ukraine for provoking WW3 is like blaming Poland or Churchill for causing WW2. You literally need to think like Putin to pull that one off

Fuck you.


You have a big brain, a library card, and that’s about it.

Check back in 20 yrs, war monger.

[MultiVerse]

So pathetic. You can’t even agree on what obviously should have been done years ago without backpedaling to the same old shopworn Putin talking points: Ukraine defending itself is warmongering

[dan_pdx]

Didn't forget: sending military aid is also warmongering! Apparently the only party that isn't a warmonger is the one that invaded a sovereign nation. Funny how that works

[frorider]

It’s called propaganda and it’s awesome

[skaredshtles]

I'm still amazed you guys even entertain cono's moranic rambling.

[dan_pdx]

I'm still amazed you guys even entertain cono's moranic rambling.

He's playing the important role of a straight man in this thread. (In the comedy sense, not the sexual preference sense). If he weren't here, the thread would have died two years ago

[Viva]

[QUOTE=skaredshtles;7155597]I'm still amazed you guys even entertain cono's moranic rambling.


Actually, Cono will bring up an occasional point and then becomes sort of a coffee table that the rest of us converse around.

[riser4]

[QUOTE=Viva;7155609]

I'm still amazed you guys even entertain cono's moranic rambling.


Actually, Cono will bring up an occasional point and then becomes sort of a coffee table that the rest of us converse around.

When I was in college the coffee table was pretty gross. Bongwater, beer, snack crumbs, seeds and stems, roaches (not the insect kind), shake, etc. One enterprising visitor scraped it and tried to smoke the residue during a dry spell. Nobody was anywhere near sober at the time and there was definitely a dare involved. It was a cool coffee table and an occasional roommate eventually rescued it during a move and later refinished it. He probably still has it.

[Cono Este]

You’re all emboldening Putin with your trump will cut off Ukraine shit. Yet, you have no clue what he will do.

Multi, my position has not changed, Ive actually been the only person in here who has agreed with bidens policy of restraint. You’ll attack me, but not him. Even when he holds back for an election. lol you guys have zero to say about that.

I’m just fucking with you guys about the long range strikes, to see if any of you will critique Biden, and you won’t. I think for a lame duck president, it’s totally irresponsible at this point.

Ukraine is not your first priority, never has been. Your own personal feelings have been involved from day 1. You should have recused yourselves in the name of trump/ Putin delusion.