Ukraine

[Bunion 2020]

Anyone else have this land in their local paper?

https://www.bozemandailychronicle.co...dbab35fff.html

John J. Mearsheimer Guest Columnist 9 hrs ago

The question of who is responsible for causing the Ukraine war has been a deeply contentious issue since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

The answer to this question matters enormously because the war has been a disaster for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is that Ukraine has effectively been wrecked. It has lost a substantial amount of its territory and is likely to lose more, its economy is in tatters, huge numbers of Ukrainians are internally displaced or have fled the country, and it has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties. Of course, Russia has paid a significant blood price as well. On the strategic level, relations between Russia and Europe, not to mention Russia and Ukraine, have been poisoned for the foreseeable future, which means that the threat of a major war in Europe will be with us well after the Ukraine war turns into a frozen conflict. Who bears responsibility for this disaster is a question that will not go away anytime soon and if anything is likely to become more prominent as the extent of the disaster becomes more apparent to more people.

The conventional wisdom in the West is that Vladimir Putin is responsible for causing the Ukraine war. The invasion aimed at conquering all of Ukraine and making it part of a greater Russia, so the argument goes. Once that goal was achieved, the Russians would move to create an empire in eastern Europe, much like the Soviet Union did after World War II. Thus, Putin is ultimately a threat to the West and must be dealt with forcefully. In short, Putin is an imperialist with a master plan who fits neatly into a rich Russian tradition.

The alternative argument, which I identify with, and which is clearly the minority view in the West, is that the United States and its allies provoked the war. This is not to deny, of course, that Russia invaded Ukraine and started the war. But the principal cause of the conflict is the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance, which virtually all Russian leaders see as an existential threat that must be eliminated. NATO expansion, however, is part of a broader strategy that is designed to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. Bringing Kyiv into the European Union (EU) and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine – turning it into pro-Western liberal democracy – are the other two prongs of the policy. Russia leaders fear all three prongs, but they fear NATO expansion the most. To deal with this threat, Russia launched a preventive war on 24 February 2022.

The debate about who caused the Ukraine war recently heated up when two prominent Western leaders – former President Donald Trump and prominent British MP Nigel Farage – made the argument that NATO expansion was the driving force behind the conflict. Unsurprisingly, their comments were met with a ferocious counterattack from defenders of the conventional wisdom. It is also worth noting that the outgoing Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said twice over the past year that “President Putin started this war because he wanted to close NATO’s door and deny Ukraine the right to choose its own path.” Hardly anyone in the West challenged this remarkable admission by NATO’s head and he did not retract it.

My aim here is to provide a primer, which lays out the key points that support the view that Putin invaded Ukraine not because he was an imperialist bent on making Ukraine part of a greater Russia, but mainly because of NATO expansion and the West’s efforts to make Ukraine a Western stronghold on Russia’s border.

Let me start with the seven main reasons to reject the conventional wisdom.

First, there is simply no evidence from before 24 February 2022 that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and incorporate it into Russia. Proponents of the conventional wisdom cannot point to anything Putin wrote or said that indicates he was bent on conquering Ukraine.

When challenged on this point, purveyors of the conventional wisdom provide evidence that has little if any bearing on Putin’s motives for invading Ukraine. For example, some emphasize that he said Ukraine is an “artificial state“ or not a “real state.” Such opaque comments, however, say nothing about his reason for going to war. The same is true of Putin’s statement that he views Russians and Ukrainians as “one people“ with a common history. Others point out that he called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” But Putin also said, “Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.” Still, others point to a speech in which he declared that “Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia.” But that hardly constitutes evidence that he was interested in conquering Ukraine. Moreover, he said in that same speech: “Of course, we cannot change past events, but we must at least admit them openly and honestly.”

To make the case that Putin was bent on conquering all of Ukraine and incorporating it into Russia, it is necessary to provide evidence that 1) he thought it was a desirable goal, 2) he thought it was a feasible goal, and 3) he intended to pursue that goal. There is no evidence in the public record that Putin was contemplating, much less intending to put an end to Ukraine as an independent state and make it part of greater Russia when he sent his troops into Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

In fact, there is significant evidence that Putin recognized Ukraine as an independent country. In his well-known 12 July 2021 article dealing with Russian-Ukrainian relations, which proponents of the conventional wisdom often point to as evidence of his imperial ambitions, he tells the Ukrainian people, “You want to establish a state of your own: you are welcome!” Regarding how Russia should treat Ukraine, he writes, “There is only one answer: with respect.” He concludes that lengthy article with the following words: “And what Ukraine will be—it is up to its citizens to decide.” These statements are directly at odds with the claim that Putin wanted to incorporate Ukraine within a greater Russia.

................................

Really long and goes on from there.

About the author

New York City, U.S. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system.

[grinch]

Must be a Rod alias

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[riser4]

John J Jingleheimerschmidt. What a fucking tankie. Useful idiot for Putin.

[MultiVerse]

First, there is simply no evidence from before 24 February 2022 that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and incorporate it into Russia.

Mearsheimer falsely blaming America, NATO, the West for "provoking" Russia's invasion of Ukraine when it has always been about Russian imperialism. It's disingenuous for him to say there's "no evidence" before 24 February 2022 given the mountain evidence after 24 February 2022.

Vladimir Putin said outright in recent interviews that he believes "Russia has a historic claim to parts of Western Ukraine." That's western Ukraine, not eastern Ukraine, !WESTERN! Ukraine. Despite Mearsheimer's false talk, Putin is absolutely unequivocally transparent about his ultimate goal of eventually occupying all of Ukraine.

Since Russia's unprovoked 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin now explicitly states his imperialistic goals in interviews saying he still wants all of Ukraine, parts of Poland, and the Baltic states too.

[Bunion 2020]

I don't agree with anything he wrote.

I find it odd that a local paper in a town of 50K would print such a long op-ed on international politics.

[MultiVerse]

What people fail to understand is that Kursk is in Ukraine's natural sphere of influence:

[ex-powderbroker]

How can Mearsheimer pretend Putin didn’t just illegally annex Crimea a few years ago?

NATO had also not invited Ukraine to join. More importantly, prior to Putin’s own meddling, the idea of joining NATO was less than 10% in 2008 iirc. It’s only because of his own actions that he drove Ukraine to the west.

To punish Ukraine for wanting to leave the Russian sphere is like arresting a woman who is thinking about leaving her abusive husband.

Fuck Putin.

[Toadman]

Caution, bridge out ahead.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...the_bridge_in/

[jono]

Anyone else have this land in their local paper?

Not seeing that tankie's BS in the local papers here. The whole piece looks like an effort to make the Putin/Trump talking points look reasonable so as to validate the feelings of wannabe Trump voters.

Curious if they try to keep it targeted to states that aren't totally locked down red or blue, since it's a kind of obvious Russian influence campaign and they might not want to make national news with that weak nonsense.

[Mazderati]

I don't know about tankie but he is very wrong on big parts of Ukraine.

[Dantheman]

How can Mearsheimer pretend Putin didn’t just illegally annex Crimea a few years ago?

NATO had also not invited Ukraine to join. More importantly, prior to Putin’s own meddling, the idea of joining NATO was less than 10% in 2008 iirc. It’s only because of his own actions that he drove Ukraine to the west.

To punish Ukraine for wanting to leave the Russian sphere is like arresting a woman who is thinking about leaving her abusive husband.

Fuck Putin.

Seriously, ignoring the Crimea annexation is some wild shit.

It's also laughable that Ukraine wants to align with the West solely because of geopolitical pressure and strategizing by NATO. It's painfully obvious that the Ukrainian people can see life in the West and life in modern Russia and just want no part of Putin's neo-Soviet dystopia.

[riser4]

I don't agree with anything he wrote.

I find it odd that a local paper in a town of 50K would print such a long op-ed on international politics.

Right. But you are in Montana, right? I gave up on local papers years ago so I can't testify about my corner of the world. I can't see that shit playing well in the two papers I used to read. But maybe in some other parts of VT?

[jono]

I don't know about tankie but he is very wrong on big parts of Ukraine.

He's been pretty vocal in his Russian talking points for quite a while. But to clarify, by tankie I don't mean "asset." Rather the intersection of assets, useful idiots, philosophically-aligned and all fellow travelers that do the bidding of the Russian propaganda machine. And to put a yet finer point on that, propaganda is measured by its usefulness, not its falsehood. The latter is common, but the former is the goal.

I fully expect that his alignment stems from his desire to prop up the relevance of his own theories about "great powers." These fall out of favor pretty hard if you understand that Russia is not a great power, but a large terrorist state masquerading as a gas station. Mearsheimer's relevance depends on the Russian narrative being inescapable, no matter how bad it might be.

[riser4]

He's been pretty vocal in his Russian talking points for quite a while. But to clarify, by tankie I don't mean "asset." Rather the intersection of assets, useful idiots, philosophically-aligned and all fellow travelers that do the bidding of the Russian propaganda machine. And to put a yet finer point on that, propaganda is measured by its usefulness, not its falsehood. The latter is common, but the former is the goal.

I fully expect that his alignment stems from his desire to prop up the relevance of his own theories about "great powers." These fall out of favor pretty hard if you understand that Russia is not a great power, but a large terrorist state masquerading as a gas station. Mearsheimer's relevance depends on the Russian narrative being inescapable, no matter how bad it might be.

I like that. Propping up his own relevance. Can I use that? It's a good description.

[MultiVerse]

Ukrainian special forces continue search for red lines in Kursk, but have failed so far to find any

[summit]

Ukrainian special forces continue searching for red lines in Kursk. for 2 weeks but have failed to find any

What???????? I've gone deaf from the massive nuclear exchange! Speak louder!!!!!!!

[PB]

chuckled quietly.

[Meconium]

How much oil burns per hour? Is 4 days like a boatload worth?

[MultiVerse]

Ukrainian sanctions on Russian oil are working

[Meconium]

As are the drones

[Meconium]

Yeah, I'm getting slow and dimwitted.

[MultiVerse]

33 years ago, the All-Ukrainian referendum on Ukraine's independence took place. The Ukrainian people chose Independence. Ukraine will be made whole, made free and will one day live in peace. Happy Independence Day!

[neufox47]

Today (yesterday) was one of the largest missile attacks of the war by Russia on Ukraine. They targeted infrastructure including the Kyiv hydroelectric dam which would flood Kyiv.

Long overdue that Ukraine be allowed to launch strikes deep into Russia.


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[m2711c]

and lose our father daughter dances?

[LongShortLong]

and lose our father daughter dances?

Ukraine may solve that for us. I see Zelenskyy celebrating their first domestic ballistic missile test. A few more years of "escalation management" by Ukraine's allies and Moscow may see nuclear missiles raining on its dance halls.