Ukraine

[J. Barron DeJong]

Well, France better get off it's lazy ass and help Ukraine win the war before winter sets in.

Yes.

[Mani_UT]

This link more suitable?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...tens#xj4y7vzkgI’m

Ok. I need some help here. I don't get it.
So France by law has caps on what consumers can pay for electricity. Futures are crazy high BUT France also owns EDF (generating basically all electricity used in France). Where is the big issue? Worst case scenario the high $/Mwh is only relevant to what's imported? Probably a fraction of actual total electricity usage? What am I missing?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Ok. I need some help here. I don't get it.
So France by law has caps on what consumers can pay for electricity. Futures are crazy high BUT France also owns EDF (generating basically all electricity used in France). Where is the big issue? Worst case scenario the high $/Mwh is only relevant to what's imported? Probably a fraction of actual total electricity usage? What am I missing?

It’s entirely possible I’m the one who doesn’t ‘get it’. Not sure that the consumer price protections are a complete panacea, since high energy costs are still going to impact the economy, regardless of how those costs are shifted. But if the high costs are only impacting a small percentage of the total energy used, then that would be significant. Believe it or not, I’m not an expert in French energy markets (or really much of anything..)

[Mani_UT]

I’m not an expert in French energy markets (or really much of anything..)

I am not either. I am just curious. Basically here is state is the consumer AND the producer. Much different than if you actually pay for someone else product (like the Germans). The 2 cases, despite the prices trending together seem very different but I am sure I am missing many pieces...

[LongShortLong]

Believe it or not, I’m not an expert in French energy markets (or really much of anything..)

I'm not either. I'd guess France's nuke fleet would provide stable-ish power and prices. My guess is the spot price is largely detached from what most French pay. Basically we're looking at the value of the marginal MWh that keeps a factory from shutting down. In consumer terms, how much would you pay to keep your power on tomorrow instead of losing your freezer contents?

Multiverse's comment about water temperature affecting generation may also play a role. Many power plants use once through cooling. Higher cooling water temperatures means less efficiency and derated output. It could also force a curtailment if they exceed their permitted discharge temperature. Nobody wants a river that cooks turtles. Or blooms algae. I bet there's money in temporary cooling ponds right now.

That spot price is market demand saying we want every MWh you got, and buy some new ones somewhere. Sorta like the post-pandemic car rental market.

[MultiVerse]

I think the main thing is energy prices in Europe are up for a variety of reasons and Russia is one of, but not the main reason.

IThat spot price is market demand saying we want every MWh you got, and buy some new ones somewhere. Sorta like the post-pandemic car rental market.

The main reason for high UK & EU energy prices looks like poorly designed energy markets. Because unless I'm missing something, the way European energy markets work is insane. The marginal price is tied to the aggregate price of energy. In other words, the price is set by the costliest supplier which is then paid to all suppliers. So when gas prices soar all power generators are paid at the same rate needed to supply energy with gas.

Source: "Since the first quarter of 2021, global energy prices have been rising, especially in Europe. In particular, natural gas spot prices in Europe increased sixfold. This led to a similar sixfold increase in wholesale electricity prices, mainly because natural gas is the marginal source of electricity generation in many countries and sets wholesale power prices through “pay as clear” energy markets. These widespread gas and electricity price increases were unprecedented in Europe"

[highangle]

Can't help thinking that micronukes and SMRs are the medium-term solution. But Europe is chock full of good physicists and engineers, and if they're not out discussing it much, there must be reasons?

[MultiVerse]

Nuclear fell out favor but it's in the early stages of making a comeback in no small part for strategic reasons. It also happens to be the greenest source of energy. Ironically, renewables tend to crowd out nuclear in favor of fossil fuels due to the intermittency of renewables. Gas power generation can be turned up and down like the heat on a stove while nuclear works best when there's consistent demand. I think it's a solvable problem and renewables should be part of the energy mix, but as things stand renewables actually tend to increase fossil fuel use in countries otherwise capable of utilizing nuclear power.

So as a result of Europe embracing renewables with natural gas as a backstop and price setter, when the price of gas goes up 6X everything goes up 6X.

[jono]

I think the main thing is energy prices in Europe are up for a variety of reasons and Russia is one of, but not the main reason.



The main reason for high UK & EU energy prices looks like poorly designed energy markets. Because unless I'm missing something, the way European energy markets work is insane. The marginal price is tied to the aggregate price of energy. In other words, the price is set by the costliest supplier which is then paid to all suppliers. So when gas prices soar all power generators are paid at the same rate needed to supply energy with gas.

Source: "Since the first quarter of 2021, global energy prices have been rising, especially in Europe. In particular, natural gas spot prices in Europe increased sixfold. This led to a similar sixfold increase in wholesale electricity prices, mainly because natural gas is the marginal source of electricity generation in many countries and sets wholesale power prices through “pay as clear” energy markets. These widespread gas and electricity price increases were unprecedented in Europe"

This sounds like any competitive market where the shut-down point of the marginal supplier determines price. The only insanity I see here is that this should have logically triggered more investment in non-rented, lower cost energy sources. Maybe captured political BS has been winning. Possibly.

[Skistack]

Seems like there should be a alot on rabble-rousing over there about who though it was a good idea to be energy dependent on a country that is not necessarily your friend.


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[dunfree]

Seems like there should be a alot on rabble-rousing over there about who though it was a good idea to be energy dependent on a country that is not necessarily your friend.


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russsia was a goodish friend until nowish. This is more a divorce

[jono]

russsia was a goodish friend until nowish. This is more a divorce

So we all thought, myself included. But they have been showing us who they were for a while, we just refused to believe it.

[dunfree]

So we all thought, myself included. But they have been showing us who they were for a while, we just refused to believe it.

late 00s Russia was visa free travel for Germans, not for the us. It wasn’t just political elite capture

[subtle plague]

Ok. I need some help here. I don't get it.
So France by law has caps on what consumers can pay for electricity. Futures are crazy high BUT France also owns EDF (generating basically all electricity used in France). Where is the big issue? Worst case scenario the high $/Mwh is only relevant to what's imported? Probably a fraction of actual total electricity usage? What am I missing?

Nuclear power doesn't like low river levels. Germany actually exports electricity to them right now. So they pay more than they would if nuclear was running on full capacity.

AFAIK they are at 50% or something ( number pulled out of my ass but it was astonishingly low when i read an article about it).
And since 80% of French energy is nuclear they have to Import 40%(using my ass number) of their current energy at absurd prices.

And btw. This low water level thing could happen quite often in our warm future so getting out of nuclear doesn't seem like such a bad idea after all.

[neufox47]

Wouldn’t making a dammed off cooling pond using river water that was separated from the river be a much easier solution?


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[subtle plague]

Wouldn’t making a dammed off cooling pond using river water that was separated from the river be a much easier solution?


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I think you're underestimating the ammount of cooling water. They actually shut down plants if the river has enough water but gets to warm because the additional warmth of the cooling warms the whole river and the ecosystem would be on the brink of collapse above a certain temp. Your pond would have to be a few square kilometers to be effective otherwise you'd have a large cooking pot pretty soon. Isar 2 in Germany takes 3000 liters per second and Releases 2600 back to the river. But they have very large cooling Towers so their Environmental impact is minimal and the river is warmer by 0.3 degrees.
If the rivers are close to the limit of 21 degrees, some Power plants Power down because it means Stress for some species. At 25 degrees some fish species die.


Edit: They have pretty strict temperature levels. Some reactirs in France actually have special authorisation to release warmer water into the rivers this year.

[neufox47]

I know it can’t be a “pond” that is a few acres, but the challenge and cost of replacing a nuclear reactor worth of power has to be much larger than building a small lake. Additionally if it is a contained synthetic lake, you don’t really care how warm it gets and it cools faster due to the temperature gradient.




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[J. Barron DeJong]

late 00s Russia was visa free travel for Germans, not for the us. It wasn’t just political elite capture

[MultiVerse]

Nuclear power doesn't like low river levels.

Low river levels has nothing to do with whether a thermal power plant is fueled by coal, gas or uranium. It's entirely a design problem. The French power plants were designed to run at certain water levels and water temperatures for the efficiency of the steam-cycle.

Any steam-cycle power plant works the same way. The goal is to get as close to maximum efficiency of the Carnot/Rankine cycle. In order to achieve maximum efficiency there needs to be a large temperature differential between the superheated steam to drive power turbines and the condensed steam in the closed loop adiabatic process. The easiest way to achieve a large temperature differential for the steam power generators is by locating power plants next to cold water thanks to the physics of evaporation.

The cooling towers that people associate with nuclear power plants exist solely for the heat transfer of steam and have little to do with the nuclear part of the plant itself. Any thermal power plant can be designed to use air cooling instead of water. The French Chinon B nuclear plant uses air cooling, In that case nuclear has the added advantage of not needing a gas pipeline or rail line or other fuel logistics like gas & coal thermal plants.

[jono]

The power plants were designed to run at certain water levels and water temperatures for the efficiency of the steam-cycle.

To put a slightly finer point on it: they were designed to achieve that in the most economically efficient way possible given then-current technology and river levels. Neufox's suggestion of adding another cooling stage works, but costs more. Turns out it's necessary.

And it's not rocket science, it's straightforward mechanical engineering. A German specialty. I bet NAFO could crowd-source the effort in 6 weeks using nothing but Shiba-avatars and free software. There is approximately 0% chance that adding a cooling stage hasn't already been suggested. "But the economy!"

[My Pet Powder Goat]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mPt6gvRQnhs&t=184s

Oh wow, how did that get in here?

Ya, "the last two years have made it clear that evil exist"... Right. If cruel, punitive immigration practices, back slapping with murderuous despots, bonesaws, self dealing and treason of the last 6years are OK, but the last two years of reducing Healthcare cost, fixing crumbling infrastructure, addressing climate change and taxing billionaires is "evil" to you then you may be the problem

Second on that guy being a fucking schmuck. The first couple videos were mildly amusing but he's gone right wing cuck, like scotty

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[Mani_UT]

I think you're underestimating the ammount of cooling water. They actually shut down plants if the river has enough water but gets to warm because the additional warmth of the cooling warms the whole river and the ecosystem would be on the brink of collapse above a certain temp. Your pond would have to be a few square kilometers to be effective.

Funny you say that. When living near Luxembourg we'd windsurf a pond near the border that was always the only manageable lake temperature wise thanks for the local nuke plant (Cattenom) using it for cooling

And yes, right now 32 out of 56 reactors are stopped for various reasons (lots of delayed maintenance due to COVID, bad timing). Even with the excess capacity that's a shitton for sure. I wonder what % they plan on importing. Even 10-20% would be significant for sure (usually France is by far the biggest exporter of electricity in Europe).

[MultiVerse]

To put a slightly finer point on it: they were designed to achieve that in the most economically efficient way possible given then-current technology and river levels. Neufox's suggestion of adding another cooling stage works, but costs more. Turns out it's necessary.

And it's not rocket science, it's straightforward mechanical engineering. A German specialty. I bet NAFO could crowd-source the effort in 6 weeks using nothing but Shiba-avatars and free software. There is approximately 0% chance that adding a cooling stage hasn't already been suggested. "But the economy!"

Yeah, and a lot these issues exist today because most nuclear power plants were designed in the 60s and 70s. They haven't seen steady incremental technological innovation like everything else because of the 70s era China Syndrome panic.

[jono]

Yeah, and a lot these issues exist today because most nuclear power plants were designed in the 60s and 70s. They haven't seen steady incremental technological innovation like everything else because of the 70s era China Syndrome panic.

Absolutely. And the inertia of that legacy reaches everywhere. Open loop water cooling systems, from nuclear to toilet paper plants, are an outgrowth of the generational denialist screwup known as "the solution to pollution is dilution." (Meanwhile we wring our hands over dams because the vatniks are somehow that credible.)

[MultiVerse]

late 00s Russia was visa free travel for Germans, not for the us. It wasn’t just political elite capture

I think you're right in the sense it's not all elite capture only now there's an additional elite dynamic where European structural problems in energy markets and elsewhere can be blamed on Putin's invasion, which in turn benefits Putin at the expense of Ukraine. We often see a similar dynamic in American politics.