Ukraine

[Mazderati]

NATO presser.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_67375.htm

[Benny Profane]

Over/under on Shohkin mysteriously getting poisoned?

All the pundits are connecting this to Taiwan naturally. signs point to Xi being in no hurry to push that one.

At this rate it seems probable there’ll be a puppet ‘all Ukraine’ govt installed this year, massive insurgency forcing Putin to maintain a troop presence increasingly unpopular in Russia, obvious economic woes, and eventually some negotiated outcome that gives up the E and S chunks to Russia and a still large Ukraine even more West oriented than before.

I posted a while back that fairly credible poll showing only 45% support in Russia for invasion, before body bags have piled up, and a relatively quiet non-State propaganda situation. Meanwhile ^^ business leaders feel they need to speak out. None of this seems to indicate a strengthening of Putin’s situation. And he doesn’t have a Wehrmacht capable of significant invasion and occupation in E Europe.

China has a shitload more to lose if we sanction them, compared to Russia. What does Putin have that we can fuck with? Oil and oligarch money being laundered. The entire Chinese economy could be severely hampered with sanctions and trade wars. Of course, we would get financial blowback, but, we would survive it much better.

[ill-advised strategy]

Million dollar (cdn) idea:
1972 Canada-USSR Super-series hockey-themed diner: Vladimir Poutine

[summit]

So about 500 pages ago I asked you putzes if Putin would actually use nukes (if NATO or anyone else stood up to him militarily), and if he was suicidal. No one answered (which shocks me as I thought most of you were dental arms experts with side gigs at geo-political think tanks). Here's what some smarter folks than me think:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-...pons-1.6362890

Oh yeah, FUCK PUTIN

It is fundamentally outrageous to threaten NATO by implying nuclear weapons would be used outside of Ukraine if anyone interfered directly within Ukraine. But such saber rattling was always expected from Russia in case of threatened conflict with NATO. They have no choice.

It also shows that Putin knows, and is effectively admitting, he cannot possibly hope to win in Ukraine if other countries side with Ukraine in direct combat (not that I am necessarily advocating same). Ukraine is taking everything Russia has against a vastly inferior opponent with the shortest logistics train imaginable. We already knew that. Russia is more powerful than 2008 (Georgia), but Russia is nowhere near as conventionally powerful vs NATO as USSR was in 1989.

Putin knows his conventional victory over Ukraine is completely reliant on total air superiority while NATO could potentially escalate to defuse the conflict declaring Ukraine a no fly zone and engage in air combat if Russia didn't back down all without committing ground troops. Russia would have to back down, fight a losing air war, or escalate. Any outcome short of a clear and non-pyrrhic Russian victory in this scenario would be a huge deterrent to China attempting to take Taiwan. Putin has attempted to preempt such an escalation by threatening NATO with nuclear attacks.

It is worth noting that all Russian battle plans for the last 60 years anticipated using tactical nuclear and chemical weapons against NATO forces very early in their eastward offensive into NATO countries, likely in the first week.


And China probably wouldn't mind a large nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia because in the long run China will suffer less than everyone else (kind of like how COVID worked out).

[riser4]

So, um.
So…do you guys think this could be some kind of world war with China and Russia and us?
Like, is that anxiety way out of line with reality, or is that a possibility here?

Yes. Nukes.

[summit]

My wife’s coworker’s army buddies are all out and getting called back in. He’s all settled into civilian life and really doesn’t want to go back, he’s sweating it.

Yesterday I saw a young guy with long hair and a beard in his army uniform putting his gear in his car…and I thought, fuck, man…that’s probably a couple years of hair. Getting sucked back in. Bummer.

IRR call ups? They must be special skills.

[frorider]

China has a shitload more to lose if we sanction them, compared to Russia. What does Putin have that we can fuck with? Oil and oligarch money being laundered. The entire Chinese economy could be severely hampered with sanctions and trade wars. Of course, we would get financial blowback, but, we would survive it much better.

So you’re basically agreeing some sort of China related acceleration to WW3 ain’t in the cards?

[Cono Este]

I don't think Biden has been a particularly effective president. He hasn't managed to totally fuck anything up, but he hasn't really gotten all that much done either. Some of those failures are his fault and some of them aren't, but the end result is that it's (thus far) been an entirely forgettable administration.

That said, I think he's handled the Ukraine situation as well as he realistically could. He's done a good job of presenting a unified front with Europe on sanctions, I think the frequent public declassification of intel on Russia's plans leading up to the invasion was effective, and the US response once the invasion began has been appropriate. He hasn't made any noteworthy gaffes or missteps, and he's managed to walk the fine line of being involved and tough on Russia without turning the U.S. response into a unilateral world police kind of thing.

I agree he’s gone a good job in the Ukraine.

Funny no one is really complaining about Biden, Ukrainians are being slaughtered wholesale but we all agree a shooting war with Russia would end badly.

But some people will never resist the chance to introduce Trump, and the carry the Trump/ Putin theories forward, even when they have no relevance to the current predicament.




Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[ex-powderbroker]

At this rate it seems probable there’ll be a puppet ‘all Ukraine’ govt installed this year, massive insurgency forcing Putin to maintain a troop presence increasingly unpopular in Russia, obvious economic woes, and eventually some negotiated outcome that gives up the E and S chunks to Russia and a still large Ukraine even more West oriented than before.

I don't see how they can leave a puppet government in half and a pro-western government in the remainder, in fact I don't see any endgame for him other than a costly occupation of Ukraine. The west won't tolerate a puppet state. It'll either be "Russia", or he will leave soon having bloodied them like he did Georgia, but with his ego and the tensions in the world.... I don't see it.

[summit]

Some Takeaways:

• The Russian regime overall is very skilled in deception and propaganda
• Americans are far more preoccupied by their fights with each other
• In spite of its vast (on paper) superiority the Russian military is so far unable to destroy Ukrainian defenses
• Russia appears to be out of precision guided missiles and will either have to inflict mass civilian casualties using unguided munitions like WW2 Stalingrad or hope Ukraine surrenders rather than fighting as an insurgency
• Taiwan can't count on overt Western support and must step up its covert armament

Agree.

Finland should petition to immediately join NATO, Sweden probably should come to reality and do the same. Moldova probably wants to join now but NATO probably doesn't want them for the same reason that Ukraine was problematic.

[Mazderati]

I agree he’s gone a good job in the Ukraine.

Funny no one is really complaining about Biden, Ukrainians are being slaughtered wholesale but we all agree a shooting war with Russia would end badly.

But some people will never resist the chance to introduce Trump, and the carry the Trump/ Putin theories forward, even when they have no relevance to the current predicament.

'The Ukraine.'

For someone who hates talking about Trump you sure do a lot of it.

[bennymac]

the guy who was impeached cause he held up military aid to Ukraine because he demanded political dirt on his rival

the guy that felt NATO should be dissolved

the guy who wanted Russia in the G7

the guy that recently praised Putin for being a genius

the guy Comrade Este praised repeatedly for years

oh yeah - we can’t talk about that guy

who put you in charge of what we can and can’t talk about?

Just because it’s embarrassing for you and Boris Profane to revisit your wrong takes on Russia and Trump doesn’t mean we have to limit our discussion so your feelings don’t get hurt

[Adolf Allerbush]

My forehead hurts from pounding it on the desk.

It should. Equating Yemen to Russia is quite stupid.

[jono]

If the resistance to booting RU from SWIFT is rooted in oil dependence, is there a feasible way to get oil from other sources to the countries who currently depend on RU? It looks like DEU gets somewhere around 1/3 of their oil from RU which is a ton.

There's a feasible and immediate way for every tweeting twit who "stands with Ukraine" to do something right now: lower the thermostat and take steps to reduce driving/buy less gas.

Wear that awesome mid-layer at your desk and enjoy the sweet sense of righteous personal responsibility while you drive down demand. I'm super optimistic about this, obviously.

[CarlMega]

the guy who was impeached cause he held up military aid to Ukraine because he demanded political dirt on his rival

the guy that felt NATO should be dissolved

the guy who wanted Russia in the G7

the guy that recently praised Putin for being a genius

the guy Comrade Este praised repeatedly for years

oh yeah - we can’t talk about that guy

who put you in charge of what we can and can’t talk about?

Just because it’s embarrassing for you and Boris Profane to revisit your wrong takes on Russia and Trump doesn’t mean we have to limit our discussion so your feelings don’t get hurt

One of the saddest things, was TFG's embrace of Putin and his subsequent 'love affair'. Prior to that shocking shocking shocking bizarre posture, USA's conservative wing was a fairly reliable arm for combatting Russian aggression. Now, completely deferential. One of the worst things I've seen. There used to be a just few US politicians who were under the spell, Europe already had people in authority who were clearly on the take and influenced to the point of corruption.... but now, USA it is widespread and has it's own momentum without even the ruble pay day. It is pathetic and has weakened us and inspired this invasion - full stop.

[summit]

We should respond to Russian brinksmanship in kind, or call them on it if we believe them insincere. Otherwise we will demonstrate to them that such threats are effective.

[ex-powderbroker]

tiny babushka energy:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...b2022993.html?

[liv2ski]

AS in WWII it is time for the free economies of the World to step up and rapidly produce and deploy alternate sources of energy to oil. This needs to happen and Russia needs to be shutout of SWIFT today.

Imagine a Europe that ran on solar and wind power: whose cars ran on locally provided electricity, and whose homes were heated by electric air-source heat pumps. That Europe would not be funding Putin’s Russia, and it would be far less scared of Putin’s Russia – it could impose every kind of sanction, and keep them in place until the country buckled. Imagine an America where the cost of gas was not a political tripwire, because if people had to have a pickup to make them feel sufficiently manly, that pickup would run on electricity that came from the sun and wind. It would take an evil-er genius than Vladimir Putin to figure out how to embargo the sun.

These are not novel technologies – they exist, are growing, and could be scaled up quickly. In the years after Hitler invaded the Sudetenland, America turned its industrial prowess to building tanks, bombers, and destroyers. In 1941, in Ypsilanti, the world’s largest industrial plant went up in six month’s time, and soon it was churning out a B-24 bomber every hour. A bomber is a complicated machine with more than a million parts; a wind turbine is, by contrast, relatively simple. In Michigan alone (“the arsenal of democracy”), a radiator company retooled to make 20m steel helmets and a rubber factory retooled to produce the liners for those helmets; the company that made the fabric for Ford’s seat cushions stopped doing that and started pushing out parachutes. Do we think that it’s beyond us to quickly produce the solar panels and the batteries required to end our dependence on fossil fuel?

Imagine a Europe that ran on solar and wind power. That Europe would not be funding Putin’s Russia

It’s not easy – among other things, Russia has a good deal of some of the minerals that help in renewable energy production. (Nickel, for example.) But, here again, the example of the second world war is helpful – with the Axis in control of commodities like rubber, we quickly figured out how to mass produce substitutes.

It’s true that we could produce carbon free energy with nuclear power too, as long as we were willing to pay the heavy premium that technology requires – and right now Germany is probably regretting its decision to hastily shut down its reactors in the wake of the Fukushima accident. But if you think about the scenario now unfolding across Europe, you’re reminded of another of the advantages of renewable power, which is that it’s widely distributed. There are far fewer central nodes to attack with cruise missiles and artillery shells – targeting reactors is pretty easy, but driving your tank across Europe from one solar panel to the next so you can get out to smash it with a hammer is comical.

At the moment, big oil is using the fighting in Ukraine as an excuse to try to expand its footprint – reliable industry ally Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, went on Fox this week to argue that stopping the Keystone XL pipeline had empowered the Russian leader, for instance, and the American Petroleum Institute today called for more oil and gas development. But this is absurd – we may need, for the remaining weeks of this winter, to insure gas supplies for Europe, but by next winter we need to remove that lever. That means an all-out effort to decarbonize that continent, and then our own. It’s not impossible.

We have to do it anyway, if we’re to have any hope of slowing the climate change. And we can do it fast if we want: huge offshore windfarms in Europe have been built inside of 18 months without any wartime pressure.

We should be in agony today – people are dying because they want to live in a democracy, want to determine their own affairs. But that agony should, and can, produce real change. (And not just in Europe. Imagine not having to worry about what the king of Saudia Arabia thought, or the Koch brothers – access to fossil fuel riches so often produces retrograde thuggery.) Caring about the people of Ukraine means caring about an end to oil and gas.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...tate-autocrats

[Benny Profane]

So you’re basically agreeing some sort of China related acceleration to WW3 ain’t in the cards?

I hope not. This bicycle parts shortage is getting real old.

[Benny Profane]

It should. Equating Yemen to Russia is quite stupid.

Ouch ouch ouch.

[CarlMega]

We should respond to Russian brinksmanship in kind, or call them on it if we believe them insincere. Otherwise we will demonstrate to them that such threats are effective.

Agreed. IMHO, we are at a 'do it now' or 'do it later' point. There is no opportunity not to deal with this threat - it is simply a question of when and how much we let Russia amass territory and strength. That said, being adroit and using stall / delay tactics and deceit to align and find opportunity has merit - I leave that to the experts. But, good faith negotiations is simply not the arena we operate in - I'd argue it never was. Amass unity. Weaken Russia economically, domestically, Isolate. Demoralize. Propaganda /psyops. Fortify allies. Then swiftly, deliberately cripple them leaving no options. No half measures.

To avoid nuclear altercations, it is going to take time, resolve and displays of unified strength. So called NATO expansion will cause pain but there needs to be push back. Ultimate goal is Russian regime change but rough rough seas and careful navigation. Doomsday clocks ticks on.

And before I get a lecture of escalating or being a warmonger - Putin, is doing this exact thing to us. All of western democracies. He is dividing and weakening the USA to the point of being crippled and incapable. It is time we acknowledge that.

[dunfree]

Over/under on Shohkin mysteriously getting poisoned?

All the pundits are connecting this to Taiwan naturally. signs point to Xi being in no hurry to push that one.

At this rate it seems probable there’ll be a puppet ‘all Ukraine’ govt installed this year, massive insurgency forcing Putin to maintain a troop presence increasingly unpopular in Russia, obvious economic woes, and eventually some negotiated outcome that gives up the E and S chunks to Russia and a still large Ukraine even more West oriented than before.

I posted a while back that fairly credible poll showing only 45% support in Russia for invasion, before body bags have piled up, and a relatively quiet non-State propaganda situation. Meanwhile ^^ business leaders feel they need to speak out. None of this seems to indicate a strengthening of Putin’s situation. And he doesn’t have a Wehrmacht capable of significant invasion and occupation in E Europe.

What’s a hurry? The prc doesn’t currently have the military assets to invade and take Taiwan, but will soon (couple years from now). Taking Taiwan gives them the capability to take the first island chain - ie Japan and Xi is hungry for that because he is, after all, an evil commie

[JRainey]

I'm also perplexed by the shift of the republican party towards defending any official russian stance, but I think ole' PuttPutt just fucking sold out all his "friends" on the dole.

I've always respected that he was a shrewd leader, but he really might have done himself in here. He must be feeling the age pressure. He could have played another 10 years of subversion and manipulation, but maybe thought he won't make it. Or maybe he just wanted his shot at the Big Show!

All the cards on the table and he prob has a losing hand.

"Yur fukin' out!"

The Ukrainians have shown they've got a lot of heart.

[Adolf Allerbush]

What’s a hurry? The prc doesn’t currently have the military assets to invade and take Taiwan, but will soon (couple years from now). Taking Taiwan gives them the capability to take the first island chain - ie Japan and Xi is hungry for that because he is, after all, an evil commie

Is that true? I figure PRC could take Tiawan today if they really wanted to.

I'm also perplexed by the shift of the republican party towards defending any official russian stance, but I think ole' PuttPutt just fucking sold out all his "friends" on the dole..

IMO it's 100% that Putin supported their guy.

[The SnowShow]

Have you guys seen Russia has mobile crematories following the troops into Ukraine? That is some fucked up shit.