The Pro’s Closet?

[Canada1]

They are roughly 2x the price of the current used bike market. I want them to make it. I don’t know if the model works post COVID?

[XXX-er]

"A trough year " whatever that is but its a good thing we have E-bikes "Giant’s half-year European product sales were down 12%, while US sales fell by 44%. (E-bike sales provided 35% of Giant’s half-year revenues.) "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlton...h=613e54da66d9

[jm2e]

does that mean bikes are getting cheaper? Or does that mean everything stays wildly expensive and the bike industry sees tons of layoffs at the manufacturing level and most shops continue to only make money giving shitty service?
The best solution I see is that people remember that bikes should last 5-7 years, drivetrains are simple wear items that just need periodic affordable tune ups and suspension doesn't cost more than the bike itself and should last more than a couple years. I don't see the industry surviving by convincing a handful of people that a new $7,000-$12,000 bike is needed every 2 years because everything on their 3 year old bike is garbage.

[XXX-er]

does that mean bikes are getting cheaper? Or does that mean everything stays wildly expensive and the bike industry sees tons of layoffs at the manufacturing level and most shops continue to only make money giving shitty service?
The best solution I see is that people remember that bikes should last 5-7 years, drivetrains are simple wear items that just need periodic affordable tune ups and suspension doesn't cost more than the bike itself and should last more than a couple years. I don't see the industry surviving by convincing a handful of people that a new $7,000-$12,000 bike is needed every 2 years because everything on their 3 year old bike is garbage.

actualy the exact same expensive model I bought 2 yrs ago at peak covid has dropped >10% and then I see them onsale for another 10% off, so there are so I would say bikes got cheaper and there are sales everywhere SO its a good time to be buying a bike

Sales down 44% is huge, there could be a whole lot of blood in the water from shops/ distributors/ mfgers that don't survive

[Kirkwood]

actualy the exact same expensive model I bought 2 yrs ago at peak covid has dropped >10% and then I see them onsale for another 10% off, so there are so I would say bikes got cheaper and there are sales everywhere SO its a good time to be buying a bike

Sales down 44% is huge, there could be a whole lot of blood in the water from shops/ distributors/ mfgers that don't survive

Prices are down >10% because manufacturers overproduced their inventory.

Prices AND sales are both down because everyone bought a bike during covid.

Take a look around and notice the number of bike and part mfg's that are now selling direct to consumer.


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[Spats]

Ibis blowing out Ripmo AFs for $2700 is putting a big smackdown on midrange sales.

They aren't a threat to the dentist bikes...
...but given that the AFs come with their excellent new 35mm internal wheelset, full Deore including the 4-piston brakes, good tires, and solid suspension, you have to spend a lot more to do better.
Plus, it's an Ibis, and wouldn't you rather ride an Ibis than a Polygon or Fezzari, or even a Specialized or Trek?

A LOT of demand was pulled forward during Covid. I've already had local shops offer me bikes below (Covid-inflated) dealer cost, and it's still summertime. IMO the shops that survive will be the ones with low overhead and techs who can service suspension.

[Duffman]

Really wish the Ripley AF would have the same deal. I love mine that I got last year during the 25% off sale , and would immediately jump on one for the wife at a similar price to the Ripmo. Can't justify that much travel for EC non park riding

[XXX-er]

Ibis blowing out Ripmo AFs for $2700 is putting a big smackdown on midrange sales.

They aren't a threat to the dentist bikes...
...but given that the AFs come with their excellent new 35mm internal wheelset, full Deore including the 4-piston brakes, good tires, and solid suspension, you have to spend a lot more to do better.
Plus, it's an Ibis, and wouldn't you rather ride an Ibis than a Polygon or Fezzari, or even a Specialized or Trek?

A LOT of demand was pulled forward during Covid. I've already had local shops offer me bikes below (Covid-inflated) dealer cost, and it's still summertime. IMO the shops that survive will be the ones with low overhead and techs who can service suspension.

the $ amount is the same but does the shop make more money selling a dentist bike or 5 lower end bikes and all the other shit they can sell a more entry level rider ?

beginning of summer shop bro talked at length methodicaly across the dinner table for 2 hrs about whats wrong, told me there have been problems with low margin since 2018 the covid just delayed an existing problem and they made 30% > pre-covid. But with rent/ utilities/ salaries/ shipping ( big one) everything that it costs him to keep the doors open he doesn't make enough money. He claimed there will be a lot of blood in the water so the brands / distributors/ LBS everybody is in trouble, so who will survive and whats the time line ?

he sez this year right now and a shop with good service will survive, so we will see if he was right pretty quick

[f=ma]

Seattle's lost a few bike shops this summer.

Also QBP announced they are discontinuing All-City bikes.

[Eluder]

I couldn't find a better thread, rumors are Guerrilla Gravity is in trouble. They havent had any social posts in a couple of weeks and bikes are no longer for sale.

Brutal

[g_man80]

I noticed Yoann Barelli had parted ways with GG earlier this summer. I assumed he chose to move on to another opportunity, but maybe it’s related to potential tough times for GG.

[beaterdit]

Damn that sucks if true. Don’t own their bikes but like them, and their general vibe.

[Tailwind]

They had some truly fire sale pricing a few weeks ago. I wonder about smaller brands like this that got a pandemic bump… even companies like Revel seem like they’d be at risk. I’d bet many of them are still being supported by VC to some extent with projected profitability in “___” years.

I couldn't find a better thread, rumors are Guerrilla Gravity is in trouble. They havent had any social posts in a couple of weeks and bikes are no longer for sale.

Brutal

[waxman]

They had some truly fire sale pricing a few weeks ago. I wonder about smaller brands like this that got a pandemic bump… even companies like Revel seem like they’d be at risk. I’d bet many of them are still being supported by VC to some extent with projected profitability in “___” years.

IMHO as a bike shop owner (really a ski shop that sells bikes) all Covid did was give "c", "d" and "e" brands the idea that they were legit bike companies. When no one could get their usual top 5 brand, or secondary 6-10th place brand (there are a lot of bike companies out there) they settled on whatever was available. Now the shockwave has caught up and even the big guys have excess inventory and the over stretched niche brand is going to suffer/disappear.

[Name Redacted]

I couldn't find a better thread, rumors are Guerrilla Gravity is in trouble. They havent had any social posts in a couple of weeks and bikes are no longer for sale.

Brutal

Hope that's not true. Love my GG bike. Seemed like the brand was doing quite well but you never know what the $$ was like behind the scenes.

[jhyatt]

I am looking at a road bike from TPC and folks seem to have good experiences. Any discount codes floating around???
They sent me one for $50 but I feel like they send out big ones sometimes?
I have been looking locally. A few barely ridden COVID purchase bikes "collecting dust" but sellers really won't budge when they are asking about what I can get a new bike for. "But I paid this much for it in 2020!". I make what I think is a reasonable offer...
I have a milestone birthday coming up and looking to replace my "last bike I will ever need" that I bought in like 2006.
Thanks!

[Pinned]

TPC hasn't been doing big discounts recently, but I've always found their stuff be on the expensive end. It's well checked over and arrives in good condition, but you're certainly paying for that.

Your LBS doesn't have a sale going? Most seem to be dumping stuff right now.

[jhyatt]

TPC hasn't been doing big discounts recently, but I've always found their stuff be on the expensive end. It's well checked over and arrives in good condition, but you're certainly paying for that.

Your LBS doesn't have a sale going? Most seem to be dumping stuff right now.

Unfortunately no sale at LBS. I am looking at one of the big brands and I feel like the sales are top down?
The LBS owner once told me he doesn't make a big margin on bikes so they don't get discounted that much. He does better on service, accessories and rentals (vacation town). But he sells nice bikes to keep his sanity!

[Falcon3]

Just got the email we've all been expecting for a while now:

GOING OUT OF BUSINESS SALE

I'm honestly surprised they made it this long after the bike market collapsed.

[sfotex]

I got 2 Campy 12 speed cassettes, a Super record chain, a dozen water bottles, some carbon PRO handlebars, 6 s-works tires for like $500...
Seems like most of the stuff is picked thru but there's still some deals in there....

[sfotex]

Damn, they're down to 23 bikes..... Talk about a feeding frenzy.

[jhyatt]

I was a little sad to read that tpc is closing. I like the origin story of going from reselling bikes in eBay to a huge store.
I feel like TPC set the bar that so many others followed. High quality photos. The bikes were always clean and tuned. Honest descriptions.
They offered fair price for your used bike and sold bikes at a decent price. Not crazy deals, but they offered a service.
I know several people who got into biking by getting a bike from TPC.
It was a like a used car dealership but not sketchy and actually just provided the service for which it made money instead of wheeling and dealing.

[Name Redacted]

Good idea, poor execution, and bad luck. Oh well.

[jm2e]

Good idea, poor execution, and bad luck. Oh well.

They just fucked up.
Classic buy high, sell low, but they tried to hodl.
I never understood all the new full priced stuff on their website. It’s like Carmax selling new cars.


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[Tailwind]

I think it’s more nuanced than “they screwed up”. Venture Capital tends to focus on crazy growth “10x growth within 18 months” and that leads you to take risks. Buying a bunch of bikes and paying more than you should? Likely what you needed to do to even have a chance at the growth investors were looking for. I’ve chatted with a few Venture capital groups and they’re clear that a majority of their investments fail they’re just looking for a couple to work out and they earn a bunch of money from them. Kinda shitty as it burns the people who you invested in and the deck is always stack in VC’s favor. I work in lending and tend to see any group that’s partnered with Venture capital as someone I’m not willing to work with.