“scarcity heuristic” and the Covid

[dewam]

Outside on line has an interesting article alleging that frequent users are getting into trouble, not all the new people clogging our parking areas.

https://www.outsideonline.com/241922...e-risk-COVID19

I am seeing very good skiers with poor back country skills. I am seeing LOTS of traffic on the easily accessible areas. Locally our resort has not opened yet, so I don't know if these folks are resort skiers, or folks that just picked up a back country setup. Friends that are very experienced back country skiers are pushing into areas that we don't usually get to this early in the season. Could be the good snow year, or is it the "scarcity heuristic"?

Or is this article just poor science presented as an interesting article? What are you seeing? Either way, I will make more effort not to become a statistic. Den

[whipski]

or, "the avalanche doesn't know you're an expert"

[Bunion 2020]

Or is this article just poor science presented as an interesting article?

Outside???? No, never happens.

How many articles has that shitty rag run the past 5 years pimping the BC experience?

My 2 cents.

Use to be most people were trying to avoid avalanches rather than mitigate hazard and skied big and consequential terrain during periods of lower hazard such as the spring when you had a pretty stable snow pack.

With more education, more widely available forecasting, much better equipment and the birth of social media and FOMO more people are skiing BC and are skiing it during periods of moderate to considerable and even elevated hazards.

And most people are really shitty at balancing risk VS reward.

Edit to add: OK I took the time to read it and it actually made some good points.

[chicken feathers]

Interesting and timely topic. There is a good deal of scientific literature on crowding in the backcountry and competition for limited resources e.g. powder

Does perceived crowding cause winter backcountry recreationists to displace?

I'm seeing the same as the OP. Easily accessible areas are a zoo this early season. Trailheads are busier than ever and lots are entirely full or even overflowing. Lots of people wandering around without a clue. My friends and I have already encountered lost skiers this season. The popular shots are looking like a frontside run at the end of the day.

My plan for the winter is to slow down. I'll work on my study of snow, practice rescue drills w/ partners.

I've also been bringing more food and beer on my tours. My goal is to make it more about being outside this season than ticking off runs.

[tang]

My goal is to make it more about being outside this season than ticking off runs.

That's a great approach. I'm also looking to take a more exploring approach and get further out on skis to new places - mind is strong, we'll see about the body.
I do wonder if the crowds thin some when some newer folks realize 90% of the time is going uphill. The shuttle-able passes will remain a zoo though

[dewam]

Whipski, the question was are you seeing a change in behavior by experienced back country users in the covid times? The mountain doesn't know you are an expert thread is over here:
https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...lculus-of-Risk

Good points from the rest. I did learn a new term “social carrying capacity” (Shelby and Heberlein 1986; Manning et al 1999). After a few more days and some good weather for getting around I am seeing a lot more serious lines getting hit. Most of them are clean and well skied, not newbies. Rarely would so many of these get hit so early and in just a few days time. It could be good early season conditions or "scarcity heuristic", I really don't know, but it is a noticeable change in behavior. Are folks jumping into serious lines earlier than usual in your neighborhood? Den