Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Bunion 2020]

Sorry but your 8 yr old is a bit slow./S

[glademaster]

Sorry but your 8 yr old is a bit slow./S

He could still be lieutenant governor in Texas though.

[TG]

This sounds like my eight year old wrote it.

sounds like the president wrote it.

inject some lysol, austin

[k2skier112]

Trending Clinical Topic: COVID Toes

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2020...src=RSS_PUBLIC

[old goat]

can't belive this thread is still going
all you punters should be intubated its one of the greatest things ever
once it happens to you, you'll look at the world alittle differently with your hands tied to the bed and a stick shoved down your throat

go back to bed

[old goat]

Yesterday both both France and Spain released seroprevalence data.

In France only around 5% infected, more than 20,000 deaths, with 3.6% of infected individuals hospitalized and an IFR of 0.7%.

In Spain too only around 5% infected, more than 27,000 deaths, and a death rate just under 1%.


A meta-analysis of multiple studies shows convergent IFR estimates of 0.5 to 0.9% for COVID-19.

which still leaves 1.5M dead in the US before herd immunity. (I used 60% infected, 0.7% IFR)

[old goat]

So here's an interesting perspective I'm hearing a bit more attention on: https://www.sciencealert.com/why-do-...e-others-don-t
It's not just that people are "asymptomatic" but perhaps a better way to look at is it that asymptomatic is simply having a better immune response, ie a well functioning immune system. The thing that's been throwing everyone off is how kids are by and large unaffected by COVID.
From the piece linked above: "However, there is no good evidence that asymptomatic people who never develop symptoms are able to pass it on."

IF this is true, then that could be some very, very good news. I know it's being researched pretty heavily right now. Heard about a big study from Switzerland that came up with the same kind of conclusion. I sure hope that it's true! Then we can finally let our kids get back to a normal, healthy life. As well as those who are as we call "asymptomatic."

There is also no good evidence that asymptomatic people who never develop symptoms can't pass it on.
The idea that the difference between people who get sick and people who don't is a strong immune system is greatly oversimplified. While all diseases are more deadly the older you get, the curve for COVID=19 is unusually steep. The specific factors between the sick and the well have yet to be determined. We have claims that the sick have weak immune systems and that the sick have overactive immune systems; no one has actually figured out what's going on here, there's just a lot of speculation. My money is on genetic variation in the hosts, including ethnically based variation, but it will have to be a small bet unless my 401K picks up.

[huckbucket]

There is also no good evidence that asymptomatic people who never develop symptoms can't pass it on.
The idea that the difference between people who get sick and people who don't is a strong immune system is greatly oversimplified. While all diseases are more deadly the older you get, the curve for COVID=19 is unusually steep. The specific factors between the sick and the well have yet to be determined. We have claims that the sick have weak immune systems and that the sick have overactive immune systems; no one has actually figured out what's going on here, there's just a lot of speculation. My money is on genetic variation in the hosts, including ethnically based variation, but it will have to be a small bet unless my 401K picks up.

The uniform increase in risk across a number of underlying conditions coupled with the protective effect of certain medications suggest that there is little genetic influence on outcome. Note that the same data doesn't exist for probability of infection. That's a very different question.

[MontuckyFried]

There is also no good evidence that asymptomatic people who never develop symptoms can't pass it on.
The idea that the difference between people who get sick and people who don't is a strong immune system is greatly oversimplified. While all diseases are more deadly the older you get, the curve for COVID=19 is unusually steep. The specific factors between the sick and the well have yet to be determined. We have claims that the sick have weak immune systems and that the sick have overactive immune systems; no one has actually figured out what's going on here, there's just a lot of speculation. My money is on genetic variation in the hosts, including ethnically based variation, but it will have to be a small bet unless my 401K picks up.

Thank you for the polite response, OG. My post wasn't meant to be one of definity but rather one of inquisiveness. Guess that was lost on all those who thought I should inject Lysol for posing such a question. Sheesh.

Many of us, including myself, have devolved through this thread into the usual shit talking, so I'm trying to do better (starting today). If there's one thing I've learned through this whole COVID thing, it's that we still don't know much. Thus, I find nothing wrong with continuing to ask questions. We should all be doing that, as is good science.

Thanks for keeping us grounded, Old Goat. I really have been enjoying your posts that help explain the science behind it all.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using TGR Forums mobile app

[Meathelmet]

The uniform increase in risk across a number of underlying conditions coupled with the protective effect of certain medications suggest that there is little genetic influence on outcome. Note that the same data doesn't exist for probability of infection. That's a very different question.

What happened to the data with the blood types? Like A/AB would have been approx 30% more probable getting it while O was around 0.67?
Wonder if that data is obsolete and has been debunked? With certain diseases (Malaria etc?) there apparently are some correlations with the resistance and blood type? Or?

[huckbucket]

What happened to the data with the blood types? Like A/AB would have been approx 30% more probable getting it while O was around 0.67?
Wonder if that data is obsolete and has been debunked? With certain diseases (Malaria etc?) there apparently are some correlations with the resistance and blood type? Or?

Two small, non-peer reviewed papers in March. Unknown at this point.

[Deebased]

which still leaves 1.5M dead in the US before herd immunity. (I used 60% infected, 0.7% IFR)

BTW your math doesn't account for age grouping or % pre-existing conditions.

For example
14.9% of the US pop is over 65
20.03 of the French is over 65

Factor that in with excess death studies
Excess death study from NIH and university college

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...854-0/fulltext


Lastly,

GenPop Susceptibility rate is totally unknown but based on the very limited data available re: Diamond princess, grand princess and Roosevelt could be in the 20-50% range.

[Game Over]

Is it true that the average age of death for COVID-19 is higher than the average age of death in general?

[skaredshtles]

Thank you for the polite response, OG. My post wasn't meant to be one of definity but rather one of inquisiveness. Guess that was lost on all those who thought I should inject Lysol for posing such a question. Sheesh.

Many of us, including myself, have devolved through this thread into the usual shit talking, so I'm trying to do better (starting today). If there's one thing I've learned through this whole COVID thing, it's that we still don't know much. Thus, I find nothing wrong with continuing to ask questions. We should all be doing that, as is good science.

Thanks for keeping us grounded, Old Goat. I really have been enjoying your posts that help explain the science behind it all.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using TGR Forums mobile app

[Ted Striker]

My money is on genetic variation in the hosts

I've almost typed that a few times, but didn't want to waste my time with the ensuing debate. In my non-medical opinion, the very idea that there can be asymptomatic carriers suggests it's likely.

Add in the observations that outcomes statistically split along gender and ethnicity lines, and that blood type appears to be a factor, and that only some individuals develop a cytokine storm, and that only some individuals develop blood clots/stroke, and that some individuals don't present with many/most of the 'traditional' symptoms yet experience the one that kills them... (I could go on)

From a purely logical standpoint, that supports the idea that there is a genetic component, and the arguments in this thread, and elsewhere, that it only kills the _______ (not me) are specious, foolish, wishful thinking, or a combination thereof.

[summit]

Is it true that the average age of death for COVID-19 is higher than the average age of death in general?

From what I can find, no, as less than half of all COVID deaths are >75 and the US life expectancy prior to COVID is 78.4

[huckbucket]

From what I can find, no, as less than half of all COVID deaths are >75 and the US life expectancy prior to COVID is 78.4

Dammit man, there goes the hypothesis that CV19 actually PROLONGS life!!

[DBdude]

Is it true that the average age of death for COVID-19 is higher than the average age of death in general?

does this matter? what is the deal with you? they didn't die of old age - they died from their body failing due to covid

[Adolf Allerbush]

does this matter? what is the deal with you? they didn't die of old age - they died from their body failing due to covid

Clearly the idea he's trying to convey is that it's business as usual and NBD.

[XXX-er]

BTW death stats for the USA are way worse than other modern countries

[DBdude]

Glad you're in agreement doctors die of the flu so a dr or multiple dr's dying of C19 in no way makes c19 extraordinary.

it's the number of doctors that are dying. not many doctors die of the flue. there is this crazy thing called a flu vaccine

[TG]

Guess that was lost on all those who thought I should inject Lysol for posing such a question. Sheesh.

nah, you can inject lysol for who and what you are.

[XXX-er]

i thot it was bleech ?

[DBdude]

Ashes with a goddamn phoenix in the middle of it.

How long have you been anti-evolution?

hahahahahahahahahahaha - people are dying because we haven't evolved to handle this - hahahahahahahahaha - it's brand fucking new to humans - that is why it is so deadly. so pandemics are a part of evolution - holy fuck - such a lack of understanding of evolution is astonishing

so first peoples dying of illness contacted from europeans was evolution? holy fuck dude - you need to really figure some shit out

[Soups]

i thot it was bleech ?

You need to DRINK bleach or INJECT lysol. Duh.