Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Timberridge]

There are plenty of deer laying on the side of the road around here just waiting to be turned into soap.

[KQ]

Huh... funny about the soap. Lots here. But flour...forgetaboutit.

Nice thing about living in farm/wine country is no shortage of meat or wine.

More weird driving dreams last night. This time the car overheated.

[Timberridge]

Definitely a head gasket problem or the water pump is going. Is there coolant on the garage floor?

[BmillsSkier]

Just a reminder, you can't make soap from fish tallow. Now, deer on the other hand leave a wonderful creamy complexion.

Can you eat it too?

[skiing-in-jackson]

A Teton County health official is contemplating closing all non essential businesses.

It’s all fun and games, till the single mom w/ two kids working hand to mouth has to pay the piper. A lot of people- in Jackson- are going to have to choose between rent and food. Maybe here employers will be courteous and pay wages for a few weeks, but I assure you it’s going down a lot different elsewhere. No open the doors = no paycheck for anyone. That’s pretty harsh.

You just can’t start yanking gears from the clock and expect things to keep working.

[iceman]

So on a somewhat different topic, I think we are thinking about masks wrong. N95 masks might prevent you from catching the virus. But they are somewhat complicated to produce and use, and it will be a long damn time before they are widely available.

There is some indication that surgical masks can offer some moderate protection against infection but to me that isn't the important thing about them..

Surgical masks are designed and used to keep medical workers from getting vulnerable patients sick. They are largely effective (or so I understand) at this. They aren't to keep the medical workers safe, they're used to keep the patients safe. In other words, they aren't designed for or good at keeping stuff out, but they are pretty good at keeping stuff in. So if everybody was wearing them, those who already have the virus would not be able to infect others as easily. It would keep the virus that they carry out of the air and off of surfaces to a higher degree than not wearing masks would.

Surgical masks are simple, cheap, and easy to produce. I bet we could even make a lot of them in this country quite quickly. If the government mandated wearing them in public I am pretty convinced that the spread of the virus would be significantly slowed. I would even bet that cheap dust masks or even simple gauze masks would help prevent or at least slow the spread of the virus and would be a significant benefit. Anything that keeps the virus away from others would be benefit to society as a whole.

From a public health standpoint I think we should focus on production and distribution of simple masks, and require their use as soon as possible, in order to help flatten the curve. It's not gonna solve things but it could slow it down and that's what we need now.

[Timberridge]

A Teton County health official is contemplating closing all non essential businesses.

It’s all fun and games, till the single mom w/ two kids working hand to mouth has to pay the piper. A lot of people- in Jackson- are going to have to choose between rent and food. Maybe here employers will be courteous and pay wages for a few weeks, but I assure you it’s going down a lot different elsewhere. No open the doors = no paycheck for anyone. That’s pretty harsh.

You just can’t start yanking gears from the clock and expect things to keep working.

When deciding between fucking the economy and the economic well being of the 95% of the people who would survive this thing, vs the 5% of the largely elderly who won't it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out in a little while.

[jackstraw]

A Teton County health official is contemplating closing all non essential businesses.

It’s all fun and games, till the single mom w/ two kids working hand to mouth has to pay the piper. A lot of people- in Jackson- are going to have to choose between rent and food. Maybe here employers will be courteous and pay wages for a few weeks, but I assure you it’s going down a lot different elsewhere. No open the doors = no paycheck for anyone. That’s pretty harsh.

You just can’t start yanking gears from the clock and expect things to keep working.

Temporary layoffs are happening here which allows for unemployment checks. Our Gov announced funding for this specifically.

[Rideski]

Sing it loud. The public perception of “oh look he looks weak because he’s wearing a mask” is so lame. I think mofro agreed several pages back as well, was going to quote that one and missed, lost track. Even if a mask or a bandana or whatever prevented inhaling or exhaling even a little of the virus it still helps if looking at the viral load discussion. Get a little of it, might skate away. Get a lot of it, more problematic. I bet there’s millions of at risk people out there that would wear one but for fear of being mocked. So weird. And plenty of sick dumbasses that should have a bubble attached to them.

So on a somewhat different topic, I think we are thinking about masks wrong. N95 masks might prevent you from catching the virus. But they are somewhat complicated to produce and use, and it will be a long damn time before they are widely available.

There is some indication that surgical masks can offer some moderate protection against infection but to me that isn't the important thing about them..

Surgical masks are designed and used to keep medical workers from getting patients sick. They are largely effective (or so I understand) at this. In other words, they aren't designed for or good at keeping stuff out, but they are pretty good at keeping stuff in. So if everybody was wearing them, those who already have the virus would not be able to infect others as easily. It would keep the virus that they carry out of the air and off of surfaces to a higher degree than not wearing masks would.

Surgical masks are simple, cheap, and easy to produce. I bet we could even make a lot of them in this country quite quickly. If the government mandated wearing them in public I am pretty convinced that the spread of the virus would be significantly slowed. I would even bet that cheap dust masks or even simple gauze masks would help prevent or at least slow the spread of the virus and would be a significant benefit. Anything that keeps the virus away from others would be benefit to society as a whole.

From a public health standpoint I think we should focus on production and distribution of simple masks, and require their use as soon as possible, in order to help flatten the curve. It's not gonna solve things but it could slow it down and that's what we need now.

[MultiVerse]

If everyone gets sick now, hospitals can't handle that load. If it's spread out over time, it's MUCH more doable. Overall survival rates should increase dramatically with that slower infection curve Spats' talking about.

That *everyone* was talking about months ago. Apart from the conspiratorial nonsense, Spats has made valid points but those points were already discussed months ago. There's nothing wrong with discussing those things again but Spats seems to think he's presenting this stuff to the uninformed masses. He's not.

The most important point is it's social distancing and testing and the earlier you start the better.

[jono]

Sing it loud. The public perception of “oh look he looks weak because he’s wearing a mask” is so lame. I think mofro agreed several pages back as well, was going to quote that one and missed, lost track. Even if a mask or a bandana or whatever prevented inhaling or exhaling even a little of the virus it still helps if looking at the viral load discussion. Get a little of it, might skate away. Get a lot of it, more problematic. I bet there’s millions of at risk people out there that would wear one but for fear of being mocked. So weird. And plenty of sick dumbasses that should have a bubble attached to them.

Absofuckinglutely. The Hong Kong had every reason to be screwed worse than anyone except for their universal acceptance of masks. Hong Kong is the model.

[MultiVerse]

Just like people adopting alternatives to handshaking, it's not a huge stretch to see people in the West wearing masks. And in the long term yes, simple cheap and easy to produce and bulk production in Asia is already ramping up.

But in the short term masks require a special fabric that is in short supply. So the question is will there be enough soon enough outside of Asia for health care workers, let alone the general population.

[jono]

In the long term yes, simple cheap and easy to produce and bulk production in Asia is already ramping up. But in the short term masks require a special fabric that is in short supply.

So the question is will there be enough soon enough outside of Asia for health care workers, let alone the general population.

We make memes of Asian people taking extraordinary measures. But a buff is better than nothing. Look no further than N95 masks if you want proof: an N95 mask stops only 95% of particles larger than 0.3 microns. Best estimate I've seen (please improve it!) puts this virus at .112 microns. So even if worn perfectly an N95 mask isn't stopping all the virus. And yet it helps. Let's not make perfect the enemy of good.

[KQ]

Meh. Can't shake this cough. And there was some shitty news yesterday that I don't want to get into until everything's alright, everyone is safely back inside the wire.

Hang in there!

Definitely a head gasket problem or the water pump is going. Is there coolant on the garage floor?

Will have to go back to sleep and check for coolant...... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[LeeLau]

BG night is clearly the king of this thread. (I've only updated until page 527, but it's pure gold so far)

Yah classic loony tunes. Spats is close second. The equivalent of the old school stay away fro my cows Valais farmer.

If the number of crazies is fairly low than the spread of the contagion may be able to be mitigated

[TNKen]

Have a client in the pharmaceutical business. He dropped his hand sanitizer product about 3 years ago.

[splat]

The masks can be double edged swords. Everyone wearing them means everyone will have a concentrated germ/virus receptacle attached to their face. Then they are constantly adjusting it, taking it on and off and contaminating their hands, leaving it places, etc.




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Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/o...gtype=Homepage

NYT has removed their paywall so everyone can get virus info.

[LeeLau]

When deciding between fucking the economy and the economic well being of the 95% of the people who would survive this thing, vs the 5% of the largely elderly who won't it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out in a little while.

Also count the number of people immuno compromised ( all ages), the healthcare system overwhelmed so basic services cannot be delivered ( all ages). That's another unquantifiable downside of not employing social distancing/a shutdown

[jono]

US still lagging dramatically behind on testing. Top graphic is a 50 day window from the time of the first patient diagnosis.

Attachment 320723
Attachment 320724

Looking at the South Korea numbers makes me question the idea that (their) testing is anywhere near as inaccurate as has been alleged in this thread. At their test rate a lot of false positives would have driven up their confirmed cases dramatically. And false negatives would tend to create (possibly emboldened) carriers and the right half of the curve wouldn't be dropping off so nicely.

Is testing inaccuracy unique to CDC tests or was that just a political point to support a narrative? (Not looking at you HB.)

The only way to test the tests is to use them on a very large scale so that the accuracy of the assumptions about the population sample improve. A small sample of the tests is a poor predictor of their accuracy. If anyone has good sources for test accuracy I'd be very interested.

[iceman]

But in the short term masks require a special fabric that is in short supply. So the question is will there be enough soon enough outside of Asia for health care workers, let alone the general population.

And again, anything that keeps the virus out of the air and off surfaces -to any degree- is a net benefit. So in the interim until better masks are available, anything is better than nothing. Wrap a rag around your head and it's better than no rag.

imvho

[powdork]

Also count the number of people immuno compromised ( all ages), the healthcare system overwhelmed so basic services cannot be delivered ( all ages). That's another unquantifiable downside of not employing social distancing/a shutdown

also consider the other 5% that survive after spending 6-8 weeks in icu much of the time on a ventilator.

[glademaster]

Coworkers laying the stupid on extra thick this morning. Thank God working from home except for field work starts tomorrow.

[Meadow Skipper]

...The fact that Spats vigorously defends the lack of wide spread testing, after exculpating the people who are actually in charge, tells you all you really need to know.

What Spats has done is cherry-pick details that tell his side of the story while insulting anyone who points out the much more credible evidence that he's wrong. The most insulting of which is people here want to see "mass deaths." Spats was an asshole when he posting here before and he's become an even bigger asshole since his return.

That sums up my take on it.

[iceman]

Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/o...gtype=Homepage

NYT has removed their paywall so everyone can get virus info.

The article is good but it's still focused on using masks to protect yourself whereas I think the greater immediate benefit is in protecting others.

[glademaster]

The article is good but it's still focused on using masks to protect yourself whereas I think the greater immediate benefit is in protecting others.

The altruistic argument just doesn't resonate in America. We're selfish as fuck. Not every last one of us, but collectively, we lean toward the self-centered side.