Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[summit]

Yikes, that's still 1.8-5.5 million new cases per year! Of course if those cases are predominantly minor maybe it's an acceptable number.

We have accepted 5-10x that number of flu cases per year. The impact might be similar...

[Mofro261]

From Deigin: "Furin cuts proteins in strictly defined places, namely after an RxxR sequence (that is, Arg-X-X-Arg, where X can be any amino acid). Moreover, if arginine is also in the second or third place (that is, RRxR or RxRR), then the cleavage efficiency is significantly increased."

From Mofro261:



Trying to make sense of these two statements, I understand the notation to mean that RRAR is a form of RRxR, which has "significantly" higher cleavage efficiency per Deigin. Is Deigin incorrect or is that true but not as efficient as RxRR? Or is A just a suboptimal amino acid?

I'm glad to see none of this seems to point to WWIII. Despite the attempted thoroughness, the incredible length of the Deigin article just goes to show that we don't know and probably won't know (unless lab records show us, and those have surely been destroyed if they existed). Otherwise, we'll never be sure that there isn't an as-yet unknown (and maybe obscure/never to be known) virus whose recombination with, say, RatG13 in some perfectly logical place explains the whole thing.

Yes, furin cleavage is more efficient for RXRR vs. RRXR. See for preferred amino acids in the P1-P4 region. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.4137/BCI.S2049

Moreover, nature already tells us that the insertion of PRRA is suboptimal, Both in lab passage and in the mutation found in 2 of Variants of Concern the (UK B.1.1.7 P681H; and India mutant B.1.617 681R) with potential higher transmissibility. Proline is the most rigid amino acid and will cause "kinks" in the protein polypetide backbone when and where introduced, so adaptation has replaced it with a postively charged amino acid that both increases structural flexiblity for Furin to access the cleavage site, and increases the net isoelectric point within the extended binding platfom for Furin.

Delgin misses the mark multiple times throughout trying to weave that article together. Kinda tripped the bullshit meter a few times but starting with

So the spike protein is only about 1300 amino acids long.

. 1300 amino acids is fucking hudge for a single subunit protein, >95% of all proteins, no "only" about it.


Anyway more on Yuri Deigin:

I am a Russian-Canadian transhumanist longevity activist, amateur theoretical biologist, and a biotech entrepreneur. Previously, those areas of my life did not intersect, but in the past few months the stars have aligned to prompt me to finally combine my passion and expertise, and channel them into an undertaking I consider the most important in my life: curing aging. Or - getting off the high horse - at least developing some significant life extension therapies for humans, because at the moment there are none. By "significant" I mean something that can prolong our lives by at least 30%. No therapy outside of caloric restriction has been able to achieve this milestone even in mice - not rapamycin (26%), not metformin (14%), not telomerase (24%), not senolytics (26%) or any other 'geroprotector'. And caloric restriction which holds the record for non-genetic lifespan extension (up to 50% in various rodents) failed to produce anywhere near as spectacular a result in primates. In the two macaque studies conducted on CR, at most a 10% median lifespan increase was observed in females and in some groups CR actually shortened lifespan.
....

That was 2017 when he was hawking a ICO for a cryptocurrency to fund his company "Youthereum Genetics."

[MultiVerse]

To summarize my understanding of Mofro's various responses to the “lab-engineered” theories:

1. There is no evidence SARS2 was bioengineered, just speculation
2. There is some evidence SARS2 evolved naturally


To summarize all the non-conspiratorial non-problematic bioengineered theories:

1. Nobody has found the animal reservoir for the SARS2 virus

[huckbucket]

For anyone still caught up in the lab origin theory, the current TWiV podcast covers Covid origins. Includes 3 members of the WHO team that went to China a few months back.


In short, scientists have looked at all the available evidence and there's no support. They remain open-minded, so if you got new evidence, put up or shutup. Neither media nor unsupported intelligence is evidence. They discussed both.

Just to be clear, the exact wording from the WHO report is as follows;

The joint team’s assessment of likelihood of each possible pathway was as follows:
• direct zoonotic spillover is considered to be a possible-to-likely pathway;
• introduction through an intermediate host is considered to be a likely to very likely pathway;
• introduction through cold/ food chain products is considered a possible pathway;
• introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway.

https://www.who.int/publications/i/i...v-2-china-part

I'm not interpreting that as especially open-minded. Yes, there is no direct evidence of lab leak, nor will there ever be. Therefore, this opinion by the WHO is about as definitive as it will ever get and I'm going to conclude that they have come down on the side of spillover.

[CarlMega]

^I'm confused on this stance. Likelihood-assessment based on evidence and history. Open to reassessment given new evidence. How "open minded" does one need to be to non-evidence based thinking in order to satisfy? "welp anything is technically possible and thus everything now has equal standing"? Candidate scenarios ranked by likelihood given the evidence seems logical.

[LongShortLong]

I'm not interpreting that as especially open-minded. Yes, there is no direct evidence of lab leak, nor will there ever be. Therefore, this opinion by the WHO is about as definitive as it will ever get and I'm going to conclude that they have come down on the side of spillover.

The WHO team members in that episode think there is more evidence in China, and interest by the Chinese to look at it. They worry that the lab hypotheses may cause political resistance in China, delaying further investigations. Delay means lost evidence of course... people (non-hoarders) don't keep shit around forever just because someone might maybe want to look at it some day. They cited blood donor samples that could be screened for Covid. Policy in China is to dispose of these after 2 years. Efforts are being made to preserve these. (Have dealt with corporate disposal policy - keeping shit around is not easy. Usually there is storage sufficient to meet business needs and no more)

The cold chain hypothesis was somewhat discredited by the team, though China blames it for some Covid outbreaks. Researchers have cultured Covid from food products frozen for 3 weeks, demonstrating the possibility. A theory promoted by some in China is that Covid came from another country via frozen food. More data required to support this.

The Chinese/Wuhan sequences known to date suggest patient zero is not among them - diversity in the sequences means spillover occurred earlier than December (or lab infection, bioweapon release, alien implantation, etc). The animal market is thought more likely to be a super-spreader event than a source.

[The AD]

Good old Idaho keeping it real:

Idaho’s governor, Brad Little, said on Friday that he had repealed a ban on mask mandates that a political rival, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, had issued while he was traveling out of state for a conference of the Republican Governors Association.

“Let me offer some advice as Idaho’s duly elected Governor — governing in a silo is NOT governing,” Mr. Little said in a statement announcing the reversal. “The action that took place was an irresponsible, self-serving political stunt.”

In the government equivalent of throwing a party while your parents are out of town, Ms. McGeachin, who is also a Republican and recently announced a bid to challenge Mr. Little for governor, had issued an executive order on Thursday banning mask mandates while Mr. Little had traveled briefly to Nashville.

She signed an executive order forbidding the state, municipalities and public schools from requiring masks. It said that wearing masks had done “significant physical, mental, social and economic harm,” that they failed to serve a health or safety purpose and that they “unnecessarily restrict the rights and liberties of individuals and business.”

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05...#idaho-mandate

[dunfree]

It’s been a year. If/when something is of natural origin, isn’t the source usually discovered extremely quickly and easily?

not saying thats proof, I’m wondering

It took 14 years to identify the source of the 2003 SARS outbreak and that was a more open and more cooperative China. Expecting quick and conclusive is asking for bad info.

The CCP is gonna lie, coverup and obfuscate because that’s what commies do with everything. It’s not proof of anything but them being shitty commies.

I really wish all of the China hawks and Communism sucks people, especially the politicians, could internalize why communism sucks. The rotten lie about everything because the party controls everything and the party can’t be wrong about anything and so everything must be how the party wants it is why communism sucks in practice. Everything comes from that. The incentive at every level tends to shitty and coverup and lie.

[old goat]

Seconded. When you have the flu it's pretty obvious. I've never had a cold that rendered me bedridden.

So we have two conspiracy theories. Covid leaked from the Wuhan lab. And KQ has influenza. So why won't KQ let us test her blood? What is she trying to hide? Or could she have a new virus spread from bats to horses to humans? We have a right to know.

[MontuckyFried]

So we have two conspiracy theories. Covid leaked from the Wuhan lab. And KQ has influenza. So why won't KQ let us test her blood? What is she trying to hide? Or could she have a new virus spread from bats to horses to humans? We have a right to know.

HA! Now that the flu's been pretty much eradicated from the US, she could very well be patient zero for the re-emergence of it. The funny thing is the likelihood of her getting the flu these days is probably less than getting struck by lightning. Not serious about the real stats, but you get the point. Astronomically rare. Especially since she had her flu shot on top of there being like no flu around. Talk about shitty luck. Heal up, KQ!

[jono]

Yes, furin cleavage is more efficient for RXRR vs. RRXR.

Thanks, that makes sense as far as I can follow. I can't say I see any of this bearing on the supposed question of lab vs. natural, although it does seem to make your point that it makes a really dumb bio-weapon.

But if the point of the research was to study feasible mutations/combinations it seems impossible to prove anything (even something that actually occurred naturally) wouldn't have been studied. It seems like we're closest to proving we'll never know.

[Skidog]

The WHO primarily exists to deal with health issues, including dealing with epidemics like Ebola, in developing countries. That remains an important mission.

China has the world's second largest economy, the largest military in terms of manpower, and nuclear weapons. Suggesting the WHO has any power over China other than what the CCP allows is like a Monty Python sketch: we demand... access to all your labs!!!!

Everyone not associated with China agrees scientists and health experts should be allowed complete access to the labs but China can't allow that even if it wanted to. Because all of the large military powers, including the United States, have biowarfare programs so even if there's no SARS2 evidence, nothing COVID related to hide, they still have lots of other national security things to hide.


Beside Occam’s Razor: Aliens created the virus (and killed Epstein) and are now trying to pit humanity against each other so they can steal our fossil fuels to mine bitcoin.

The stuff from the "big bang" that started life on this planet proves we are all "aliens" far as I'm concerned.

Now the dudes who think we are part of some wider alien experiment/conspiracy are out there, but damned if there aren't some really unexplainable things, especially in early stone construction. Mayans, Egyptians, etc..but that first "seeds of life" that came from the primordial soup came from a meteor that came from....wait for it......space. not likely originating here. Guess it's a sti theory though eh?

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app

[old goat]

Seems like the media (ok--at least WAPO and Colber) have now come around to the idea that we don't know where the virus came from. Still group think but at least rational group think.
BTW, to believe the lab leak theory you have to believe the pandemic version of the virus was created in the lab--because if the lab had acquired a naturally occurring sample of SARS=CoV-2, that means the virus was already loose in the world and could have been spreading unrecognized for a long time before being recognized in Wuhan. How many docs in rural east Asia would see a patient with flu like symptoms who recovered or an old person who died and think "Aha, I've discovered a new disease"?

(In 1961 a sexually active 15 year old in St. Louis, initially seen for chlamydia, developed a wasting disease and died. At autopsy Kaposi sarcoma was found. In 1988, 7 years after the "first" case of AIDS and 4 years after the virus was isolated, the doctors who had cared for him had frozen samples from the boy analyzed--they tested positive for HIV.
http://content.time.com/time/magazin...145380,00.html
Doctors are not usually on the alert for new diseases.)

[jono]

BTW, to believe the lab leak theory you have to believe the pandemic version of the virus was created in the lab--because if the lab had acquired a naturally occurring sample of SARS=CoV-2, that means the virus was already loose in the world and could have been spreading unrecognized for a long time before being recognized in Wuhan.

Probable, but also unprovable: if they got a sample from anything but a human the lab could have had the first human case.

[pureantigravity]

These labs and the people that work in them should be treated like the used to treat returning astronauts. Quaranteen them. Keep them apart from contact with society. If they get sick, they have their own hospital. If they all die. So be it. Just treat this with the seriousness it deserves - keep experimental viruses out of contact with society in every possible way. Better, make a research lab on the moon or mars. Just stop thinking "We know what we're doing. Nothing can go wrong." Apparently it does with alarming frequency and consequences.

[old goat]

Probable, but also unprovable: if they got a sample from anything but a human the lab could have had the first human case.

Agree unprovable. But it seems to me that if a virus capable of infecting humans was sampled in the wild and transferred to the lab it is highly likely it would have infected a human before it got there. If the virus can escape a Level 4 biocontainment lab it can certainly escape a bat cave in rural China (or elsewhere.)

[jono]

True, but the allegations about that lab's protocols are that they wouldn't have been doing this research in level 4, just level 2 (because it wasn't SARS).

I think the right answer is to assume that it got out by each of the most probable ways and adjust accordingly. If you can't prove it didn't you don't know the next one won't.

[dunfree]

True, but the allegations about that lab's protocols are that they wouldn't have been doing this research in level 4, just level 2 (because it wasn't SARS).

I think the right answer is to assume that it got out by each of the most probable ways and adjust accordingly. If you can't prove it didn't you don't know the next one won't.

those allegations are mostly made up bullshit.

[jono]

those allegations are mostly made up bullshit.

Mostly, ok, but do you know which parts? I haven't had time to run down the references. Or, more accurately, I haven't made time because I don't think anyone who's seriously committed to "knowing" will be convinced. But I'm interested.

[ticketchecker]

I've been in Florida a bunch for the last couple months managing some parental health situations, you should come down here. There is no covid anymore down here, it's awesome.

You can go anywhere without a mask.

[yeahman]

You can go anywhere without a mask.

Sounds like Montana. Took me about two days to get used to not wearing a mask. I'm vaxxed, fuck it.

[KQ]

I find the new guidelines very confusing. The store clerk who sold me my bananas today was sans mask. I wore one mostly because I am not over the flu.

A local school was just shut down due to an outbreak.

[Ottime]

respectfully, to You and Adolph - I don't think it is ever going to be as it was before --

too much can be saved by having people work remotely / work-from-home ;

I believe restaurants are forever altered ( though that may only be for about twenty-five percent of us ) ;

of greatest concern from your post are the ideas of growing homelessness and growing violence...

society is evolving ; disparity continues to grow...

I am not a city person, but I have friends who are city people...

Good luck, I wish you well... skiJ

To a degree I agree with the above. Society will change from this. As more work from home, fewer with socialize well, and the empathy for those left behind will dwindle. We are likey moving into an increase disparity world where the wealthy and elite work from home creating e gadgets and distractions while those left behind continue to go out to perform laborious duties to feed, house, clean a d otherwise support the developers. We are fucked.

.FWIW, Silicon Valley tried remote work a few decades ago and most of those companies went under while the giants of today were building facilities to keep their employees from every leaving (Google, Apple, etc) with great dining, amenities and overnight housing available. There is a certain value in productivity with having your teams work in a space together. So I think the jury is still out on what it will be like in a decade.

[old goat]

To a degree I agree with the above. Society will change from this. As more work from home, fewer with socialize well, and the empathy for those left behind will dwindle. We are likey moving into an increase disparity world where the wealthy and elite work from home creating e gadgets and distractions while those left behind continue to go out to perform laborious duties to feed, house, clean a d otherwise support the developers. We are fucked.

.FWIW, Silicon Valley tried remote work a few decades ago and most of those companies went under while the giants of today were building facilities to keep their employees from every leaving (Google, Apple, etc) with great dining, amenities and overnight housing available. There is a certain value in productivity with having your teams work in a space together. So I think the jury is still out on what it will be like in a decade.

I hear the jury will be back in a decade.

[pureantigravity]

The jury is working remotely now?