Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[jono]

I'm not the one to answer your question, but why invest in a personal bioterror lab when you could go to work for the DOD and make good money?

You suggesting that I shouldn't sell to both sides? Don't start horning in on my business model or I'll strap you to my laser table and cut your ass in half! [/WALKEN]

But you make a good point--one million dollars is no longer enough. Inflation comes to every business model, it seems.

[old goat]

That or make parking expensive so that the math changes on what is the most economical way to commute. If I had to work downtown I'd find a way to use transit for sure. Parking is $20/day or more most places downtown.

The hospital wants to charge residents $400/m for parking, so my son in Boston rides his bike to work, day or night, summer or winter.

[LongShortLong]

Yup, and it's not just too few buses on existing routes. Existing routes often don't get people close enough to their destination to make transit worthwhile. When I couldn't drive due to knee injury a few yrs ago I tried mapping out a transit route from home to work. The best option would take 2:15hrs including 1 local bus to a transit hub, an express bus, then 2 more local buses. I was still 1.5mi from work which wasn't bad except it was a busy road with no sidewalk : (. I could normally drive to work in 15-20min depending on traffic. If transit only gets you 80% of the way there or takes significantly longer people won't do it. It's the same problem mentioned above - adequate routes don't exist so people don't take the bus. How can you justify more routes when existing ones aren't highly used?

I don't think we'll ever get to the point where transit is efficient for everyone. But we can make it better for a lot of people with better route planning and adding frequent service between major transit hubs and employment centers. Getting as many people off the road in rush hour will make the biggest difference. Personally I'd like to see funds from major projects like new train lines be spent on upgrading bus service instead. Train lines take years or decades to design, fund and build and once constructed they can't adapt as population changes in a region. Buses are relatively cheap and you can put them on the road once delivered. And it's easy to change routes as needed.

The transit agencies and transportation researchers have put plenty of effort into optimization. It's already about as good as it gets. The problem is designing an efficient shared transport system that picks up on demand from many locations and drops off at many locations. Additionally, we tend to live in one place and work in another, meaning the transit system is deadheading half the time (travelling uselessly). The personal car solves both problems.

Oh, they will build it. California hi-speed rail is justified as an alternative to flying from LA to SF. But look at all the stops planned in between and tell me this isn't going to enable massive urban sprawl in the Central valley for people commuting by rail to the Bay Area or LA. Too much money to be made on real estate development along the rail corridor.

They might, though it looks about as useful as the Pyramids public works project. For the CA high speed rail, we already have a competing infrastructure that is faster and cheaper. The rail budget ticket price projections cover operations only; estimated one-way fares are higher than round-trip airfares. Airlines already provide better service cheaper, and cover most of their expenses from fares. At $80B to build rail, that's a $2,000 subsidy from every CA resident, most of whom will never ride it.

We're also electrifying Caltrain for $2B. This works out to $65,000 per commuter (they have about 60k daily boardings, assume a commuter boards twice). For this $65k, we add a doodad to an existing public works project that already can't pay its way from fares. Society might be better off giving each commuter a Tesla, adding a freeway lane, and selling the rail line as real estate.

[Tri-Ungulate]

But you make a good point--one million dollars is no longer enough.

[Ted Striker]

You suggesting that I shouldn't sell to both sides?

Just don't buy too much Egyptian cotton.

[huckbucket]

As a mad scientist who has waffled between making vaccines to improve humanity and dreaming up the Sar-bola like viruses to wipe out humanity, I'm a little jealous if someone else beat me to it on the latter one. But if Sars2 was lab derived, why use a poor furin cleavage site like RRAR with only one previous occurance in the database, over other more well established sites for furin? Codon optimized but not amino acid optimized seems like poor planning if it was by plan.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7839419/



When I designed the prefusion Spike we are using in neutralization and serology assays last January, I altered the site from (P)RRARR, to (P) SSASS mostly so we would get a full length product, but at least in part just because it spelled ASS.

Also, an intermediate host for potential transmission from bats to animal-X to humans, has never been shown for either human coronas NL63 (discovered 2004, binds to Ace2 but non-overlapping with Sars1/2, no furin site) or HKU1 (discovered 2005, has furin site RRKRR, does not bind Ace2) which have been assumed to go direct bat to human.

You've got another voice on your side. Aren't you from Scripps (maybe I'm thinking of someone else)? The debate rages on.

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/sta...07230848032772

[LongShortLong]

Can one of you smart dentists explain Texas to me? I just read since March 10th, when all restrictions were lifted, both active infections and hospitalizations have fallen y nearly half..... Is that due to vax rates or what?

I'd say either space aliens, Gates likes Texas, or Texans changed their behaviors such that Covid spreads almost, but not quite, well enough to sustain constant levels. CA looks better, but similar.

Without any detailed analysis, I'd say there are three main factors, lingering behavior changes from the holiday surge, post-infection immunity, and vaccine immunity. Since the curves seem to fall rapidly in January, and less so in each following month, I'm leaning pretty hard on the behavior changes.

Looking at each factor:
Post-infection immunity - With case rates down 80-90%, post-infection immunity isn't increasing much. So the curve should fall a little faster than constantly.
Vaccine immunity - With vaccination increasing, the curve should be falling faster as the months go by.
Behavior - With the big holiday surge, people probably listened to the rules for awhile. As time passes from the peak, people choose not to follow all the rules. This would cause a steep fall near the holidays, that drops off more slowly in time, and eventually climb to a new crest. (We've seen this in every peak so far)
^ Those curve comparisons ideally should be done on a log graph.

The behavior factor best explains the graph. Hopefully increasing vaccination compensates for poorer behavior and we never see another crest.

There might be good data to demonstrate behavior is changing, rather than believe my speculation. Some sources might be cell phone tracing, bar and restaurant receipts, surveillance of mask wearing, etc. Cell phone tracing may show more households mixing. The official restrictions only matter to the degree they change behavior.

Nationally, about 1.4 million people become fully vaccinated every day (2.8M shots/day). Another 50,000 (maybe double or triple that) receive natural immunity (and 700 die). Vaccination is protecting hosts faster than Covid infects them.

[Nobody Famous]

The complicated and potential tragic story of improving indoor air quality, especially in schools. Where air purifiers may result in more harm (eg increased O3) than good or do not good at all.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/...rm-to-children

Interesting read. When I replaced an heat pump HVAC system a few years back I put in one of these in-duct UV devices:

https://www.rgf.com/product-category/air/residential/ (the one in the center picture).

Well worth it (cost < $800 equipment and labor) if only for the peace of mind factor. There is a lot of hype surrounding these and this isn't the only manufacturer. In spite of the hype I have seen the industrial grade models (same manufacturer) used throughout biotech and pharma plants in clean rooms areas. And I know offices for dentists and and specialty surgeons use these a lot.

In hindsight I should have installed it myself.

[bennymac]

Concern troll is concerned.

[Meathelmet]

Concern troll is concerned.

Tucker Carlson should be used as a testing platform for large and extra large dildos.

[MTT]

Rand Paul grilling Fauci about NIH funding for the Wuhan lab.
Happening now.

[Ted Striker]

That last time Paul tried to grill Fauci he had his ass handed to him.

[Ted Striker]

Tucker Carlson. Asking the questions on no ones minds.

[dunfree]

Tucker Carlson should be used as a testing platform for large and extra large dildos.

Dildo on dildo crime?

[MTT]

That last time Paul tried to grill Fauci he had his ass handed to him.

Depends on what channel you watch.

Let me know what CNN says about it. If anything

[Ted Striker]

I don't have tv, but I saw the last time unedited.

[bennymac]

Depends on what channel you watch.

Let me know what CNN says about it. If anything

What channel are you watching/learning from

[Meadow Skipper]

Depends on what channel you watch.

Let me know what CNN says about it. If anything

I just watched the exchange and developed my own take on it, rather than being told what to think about it by someone on tv. Highly recommended.

Rand Paul got his ass handed to him.

[seano732]

What channel are you watching/learning from

He may have accidentally shot his TV, so........

[stealurface831]

He may have accidentally shot his TV, so........

"just dry fire target practice"

[gretch6364]

Tucker Carlson. Asking the questions on no ones minds.

I am sure it is on some peoples minds...even if just the crazy ones. If not, he wouldn't meet ratings. A lot of his stuff is not simply asking questions, but it is making statements, so a bit different...but, nothing wrong with asking questions.

[zartagen]

I am sure it is on some peoples minds...even if just the crazy ones. If not, he wouldn't meet ratings. A lot of his stuff is not simply asking questions, but it is making statements, so a bit different...but, nothing wrong with asking questions.

What about...?

[seano732]

"just dry fire target practice"

lulz......

[Harry]

I just watched the exchange and developed my own take on it, rather than being told what to think about it by someone on tv. Highly recommended.

Rand Paul got his ass handed to him.

Rand Paul came across as a spoiled child.


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[CarlMega]

Rand Paul came across as a spoiled child.
]

His neighbor agrees.