The Blob is Back

[Timberridge]

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-mas...insane-weather

Although the blob is focused over the Northeast Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska, it has played a substantial role in the development of extreme weather patterns over the Lower 48 when it has formed in the past.

Generally, it has been linked to abnormally warm and dry conditions in the West, and cold and stormy conditions in the East.

[SkiBall]

Thanks for ruining my day. And potentially the next 12 months for that matter.

[Timberridge]

No problem. Perhaps a trip east to Killington this season?

[SkiBall]

No problem. Perhaps a trip east to Killington this season?

Pretty tied down in the winter. I need a different job obviously.

[Timberridge]

They say it could dissipate unexpectedly so there's still hope.

[frorider]

I’ll wait for Trump’s take on the scientific probability before I get worried.

[GeezerSteve]

I’ll wait for Trump’s take on the scientific probability before I get worried.

Absolutely. How can one not have full confidence in the scientific intuition of a Great Leader who uttered this manifestly lucid observation:

Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are — nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right, who would have thought? — but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

-- Donald J. Trump, July 21, 2015

[Buster Highmen]

Cliff Mass wrote:
Why such warm water? Because there has been an amazingly persistent area of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. To illustrate, let me show you a map of the average anomaly from normal conditions of the heights of the 500 hPa pressure surface (around 18, 000 feet) for the past 30 days.(see below). Wow.
…
This is no coincidence! As shown by my colleague and BLOB meister Dr. Nick Bond and his co-authors, persistent high pressure is associated with lighter winds. Such light winds result in less mixing in the upper layer of the ocean, so less cooler water from below is mixed to the surface.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/1...b-is-back.html

Hopefully, the blob is just an effect and doesn't provide some high pressure feedback loop.

[DBdude]

cliff mass rocks

[Buster Highmen]

cliff mass rocks

Yes. Yes he does.

What's great is how hard he fights reactionaries who believe that global warming is the cause of certain effects, where Mass, who supports the theory of climate change, consistently refers to making a solid scientific argument.

[GeezerSteve]

cliff mass rocks

except on climate change public policy issues

consistently refers to making a solid scientific argument.

He should stop when he hits the limit of expertise. Yeah, of course nobody can link a specific weather event to climate change. Duh. But there's scientific consensus among non-Big Oil shills that severe weather events are more likely due to climate change, a reality Cliff artfully dances around. Cliff is acting like a Big Oil shill (along with his bud sold-out Big Oil shill Mark Albright). Only Mass knows whether his bias results from his stubborn contrarian shtick or whether it's because he and Albright feed off industry grant money or some combination of the two.

[DBdude]

really?

I haven't listened to him since leaving seattle

[GeezerSteve]

KUOW fired him because he could not keep his mouth shut re public education issues. KPLU (now KNKX) picked him up. But for his deep radio broadcaster voice, he'd be just another climate professor chasing grant money.

If you're interested in his abetting Big Oil with slick talk, check out the articles in the The Stranger over the past few years. You might also do some research re his grant-seeking bud Mark Albright, who is closer to the line of climate change denier.

I acknowledge that Cliff is an able climatologist and has a keen ability to convey climate concepts to the public. I applaud him for that. If only he'd stop there.

He has parlayed his media presence to do expert witness work for litigation, usually engaged for insurance defense work. AFAICT, he'll opine whatever is necessary to help his clients. Some in the Seattle legal community refer to him as "Cliff Mass Media."

[DBdude]

interesting, thanx man

[Buster Highmen]

Lots of kneejerk liberals don't like Mass because he won't support climate or weather claims that have insufficient scientific data.
So lots of policy makers and media barkers dislike him.

[plugboots]

I like Cliff, follow his blog, etc. I also liked how he didn't want to just say that something was climate change related if he wasn't sure, or if his presented data didn't back it up.
Now, I'm more inclined to agree with Steve. (Maybe being married to a Seattle lawyer has something to do with this.) I probably don't agree with him about his NO vote on I-1631 for example.
Buster, I'm more of a "knee doesn't lift quite quickly now due to loss of cartilage" liberal. I think things through and change my mind if presented with good reasons.

[DBdude]

i don't think carbon taxes at the state level is a good idea. it needs to be done at the federal level. it just gives an incentive for employers to locate else where.

his blog post on education is not that incendiary. charter schools really aren't a solution given that many of them suck and are for profit entities that are selling snake oil to desperate families

i certainly believe that education needs to improve, but blaming it on bad teachers is ridiculous. Massachusetts does really well in national testing. it also happens that Massachusetts has a population of well educated residents and teachers are highly paid.

[Buster Highmen]

Regarding climate change, this is an interesting theory:


A problem with people is that it's hard to keep a lot of ideas in the air at once, we are prone to premature estimation. Theories are insufficiently manly.

As far as I-1631, the intent is good, but I think it's a really good question about what does it mean, how is the money to be directed?

[plugboots]

This whole thing, (from Cliff's blog), with mostly good comments, about I-1631 is pretty good:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?bl...17993861227113

On an anecdotal note, (back to the blob), the blob, in my non-scientific just observational view, resulted in lousy spring corn skiing. It seemed to be the main reason we had a lot of 34 degree nights, (which SUCK), at WA pass that could have been 30 degree corn producing nights

[Buster Highmen]

i don't think carbon taxes at the state level is a good idea. it needs to be done at the federal level. it just gives an incentive for employers to locate else where.

Seattle doesn't really have a problem with people or employers leaving. It would be nice if they did.

his blog post on education is not that incendiary. charter schools really aren't a solution given that many of them suck and are for profit entities that are selling snake oil to desperate families

Mass became famous for rightfully criticizing Education Departments, UWs in particular, approach to teaching math and exposing members of several local school boards promoting these "new" math programs and books from which they themselves benefitted.

[Buster Highmen]

This whole thing, (from Cliff's blog), with mostly good comments, about I-1631 is pretty good:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?bl...17993861227113

A-yup. Great intent, but where does the money go?

Except I think this is dumb:

A lot of your other fault-finding with 1631 echos the far lefties' arguments against I-732 two years ago. They said "if you're for the environment you have to vote against 732 because 732 will make meaningful climate legislation harder to pass later." Hogwash! The undeniable message behind this argument is "the climate's really not all that important" and "fixing the climate can wait for something better." More hogwash! The truth is that we probably need both initiatives. And the longer we wait, the more expensive we'll have to make it for it to be effective. It's unfair for us now to drag our feet knowing that in doing so, we burden the future with our mistakes.



Except the part about burdening the future with our mistakes.

On an anecdotal note, (back to the blob), the blob, in my non-scientific just observational view, resulted in lousy spring corn skiing. It seemed to be the main reason we had a lot of 34 degree nights, (which SUCK), at WA pass that could have been 30 degree corn producing nights

Yup, shore did. But again, is the Blob causal or an effect?

[carlh]

I hope the blob goes away, but if it doesn't I just bought a new mtb and we can keep the dirt in the PNW thread going. Winter 14-15 was great riding to semi make up for non-existent skiing.

[Buster Highmen]

the blog goes away? hmmmm

04-05 was the brown winter I recall.

[plugboots]

A-yup. Great intent, but where does the money go?

Agree, it's not defined well enough for me.

Yup, shore did. But again, is the Blob causal or an effect?

JHC, dude, I don't care, I want my spring corn!!!!!

It really was amazing to look at my photos/videos comparing the last 15 years or so at WA pass. old fuck alert: (I have earlier photos as well, but they're mostly grinning dipshit stuff) It almost doesn't matter how much snow there is during the season, and depth of snow starting in April. The main factors seem to be nightly freezing, and a periodic light, (or more), dusting of new snow to keep the snow white and solar reflecting.

[DBdude]

the blob may lead to a good winter for me