Climate Change

[WMD]

Perhaps there is more involved with climate change than net zero. Who's to say what will be deciding factors in earth's temperatures.

Um, climate scientists who spend their whole lives studying this?

It's really pretty simple. CO2 stays in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia. Every molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere warms the planet by trapping some of the heat escaping from the earth's surface. The more CO2, the warmer it gets. Same for other greenhouse gases. Stop adding these gases to the atmosphere and temps level off, no longer increasing but not decreasing either.

Yes, there are other factors besides net zero - there are feed-back loops and tipping points that can cause more melting of permafrost, thus releasing more methane (more potent but shorter lived than CO2), which leads to more warming, in a disastrous loop, or when changing ocean temps disrupt major ocean currents which lead to radical changes in weather patterns. But stopping adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is key to limiting warming.

Sadly we have not chosen to prioritize this yet. All of the disasters happening now are happening at 1.1-1.2C of warming. Every additional tenth of a degree of warming will make these worse and more frequent. Right now we are in a path to around 3.2C according to the last IPCC report. That is a dramatically different planet than the one we live on today. We will most likely surpass 1.5C around 2033, and 2C by mid century. This is our problem, not just our grandkids problem.

[californiagrown]

Um, climate scientists who spend their whole lives studying this?

It's really pretty simple. CO2 stays in the atmosphere for centuries to millennia. Every molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere warms the planet by trapping some of the heat escaping from the earth's surface. The more CO2, the warmer it gets. Same for other greenhouse gases. Stop adding these gases to the atmosphere and temps level off, no longer increasing but not decreasing either.

Yes, there are other factors besides net zero - there are feed-back loops and tipping points that can cause more melting of permafrost, thus releasing more methane (more potent but shorter lived than CO2), which leads to more warming, in a disastrous loop, or when changing ocean temps disrupt major ocean currents which lead to radical changes in weather patterns. But stopping adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is key to limiting warming.

Sadly we have not chosen to prioritize this yet. All of the disasters happening now are happening at 1.1-1.2C of warming. Every additional tenth of a degree of warming will make these worse and more frequent. Right now we are in a path to around 3.2C according to the last IPCC report. That is a dramatically different planet than the one we live on today. We will most likely surpass 1.5C around 2033, and 2C by mid century. This is our problem, not just our grandkids problem.

There needs to be a balance of taking measures to address climate change without crashing the world economy and thus stagnating/reducing technological breakthroughs that will help address the issue. At what point is it too late to stop the climate change train, and we would be better off throwing money at technological innovation to adapt to CC, as opposed to tech devoted to decreasing greenhouse gasses and preventing CC from happening?

[jonesy]

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
Contradictions .

[The SnowShow]

We aren't. And that is why this is so crazy. The important point is that until we do get to net zero, warming will continue to increase. It is only when we reach net zero (or soon thereafter) that warming will stop. But there's no going back. The warming we've already experienced, and will experience as we continue to emit GHG's, will be baked in.

We actually have the technology to address this to cut emissions in half this decade, and that helps us have time to find solutions for the last parts we haven't figured out yet. But we aren't deploying current solutions anywhere near fast enough to decrease emissions. It's madness that we aren't doing this.

And to Joe Fuckwad Manchin, the Manchinian candidate, "The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment. Fixating on short term growth while the parent company teeters on the brink of collapse is as myopic as it is negligent." Quote from random tweet.

It’s mind boggling that more isn’t being done if we have the tech to address it. Fuck all these powerful yet backward fossil fuel assholes who are going to destroy this planet.

[The Tortoise]

This, only a little slower.

[WMD]

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
Contradictions .

Yes, natural cycles change the climate slowly over long periods of time. The latest IPCC report looked at those and said with natural cycles and events alone we should be cooling slightly. Instead we are warming faster than ever before, and this is human caused. All of it.

[WMD]

There needs to be a balance of taking measures to address climate change without crashing the world economy and thus stagnating/reducing technological breakthroughs that will help address the issue. At what point is it too late to stop the climate change train, and we would be better off throwing money at technological innovation to adapt to CC, as opposed to tech devoted to decreasing greenhouse gasses and preventing CC from happening?

Climate change will crash the world economy. Our current global infrastructure was built for a climate that no longer exists. Upgrading it to withstand the planet with unchecked warming would cost trillions and even then we can't adapt to much of the change that is coming.

The measures needed to mitigate it would cost just a few percentage points by 2050 before taking into account the savings from needing less adaptation and from avoided impacts, according to latest IPCC report.

We need emissions to peak by 2025 to keep warming below 1.5 or even 2C. Above 2C will be catastrophic for many humans and we can't adapt our way out of that world. Some places will become unlivable and many species will die.

On a 2C pathway nearly all the world's coral will be dead by 2050. So what? Nearly a billion people rely on food from coral reefs, as does 25% of all other ocean life. How do we adapt to losing this food source? When those people can't get food they will migrate. Where? Who will take them? Lots of social unrest and war will ensue. It is already happening and the scale of migration is tiny now compared to what it will be.

That said it is never too late to stop the climate train because even 2.5C of warming is a better future than one with 3c of warming. Even 2.6 would be way worse than 2.5 - every tenth of a degree of warming from here on out will make life much worse and millions more will suffer and more people will die.

[jonesy]

^ WMD no argument about the climate crashing the economy or that people will have to move from certain locations to survive.

[raisingarizona13]

Oh we are fucked. Big time.

I feel things are snowballing now and the climate is heating more than predicted. Its a negative feedback loop.

I'm trying to live in the moment and enjoy some of the last good days we have left.

[shafty85]

How are we getting to net zero emissions continuing down this path?

We aren't.

Sure we will. Whether humans achieve it through technology and a change in mindset or by going extinct, one way or the other net zero will be achieved.

[shaft]

Our lessons from COVID, school shootings, and 9/11 are that property loss - not loss of life - are the only thing that can spur sweeping change.

They have us a bit cornered. With wages stagnating over the last few decades, asking people to electrify their homes and cars is a difficult proposition. With housing prices to the moon and many living on the streets and in cars, the idea of increasing spend it tough to swallow. I'm unsure we can fix climate if we fail to fix the housing and disposable income inequality issues. Actually fuck that. We can't fix climate without fixing all three.

[SumJongGuy]

There are countless critical and immediate life threatening issues we are facing right now. It all boils down to the culture war, and that's global too. Elephant in the room.. Occum's Razor..

[Dantheman]

Oh we are fucked. Big time.

I feel things are snowballing now and the climate is heating more than predicted. Its a negative feedback loop.

Positive feedback loop.

Positive/negative doesn't refer to the desirability of the outcome, but rather whether a small change in the system will drive that system back toward or away from the current equilibrium. The climate is filled with positive feedbacks (e.g., melting ice caps exposing dark soil and water which absorb more insolation and create further heating) and negative feedbacks (e.g., warmer air holding more moisture creating more cloud cover which reflects insolation back to space and cools things back down). Modeling the magnitude and interaction of those feedbacks is an incredibly difficult task, but right now the positive feedbacks seem to be winning.

[raisingarizona13]

Positive feedback loop.

Positive/negative doesn't refer to the desirability of the outcome, but rather whether a small change in the system will drive that system back toward or away from the current equilibrium. The climate is filled with positive feedbacks (e.g., melting ice caps exposing dark soil and water which absorb more insolation and create further heating) and negative feedbacks (e.g., warmer air holding more moisture creating more cloud cover which reflects insolation back to space and cools things back down). Modeling the magnitude and interaction of those feedbacks is an incredibly difficult task, but right now the positive feedbacks seem to be winning.

Yes. That's what I meant. Skool was a while back now

[WMD]

I prefer this reality:

Me too

[Percy Rideout]

Our lessons from COVID, school shootings, and 9/11 are that property loss - not loss of life - are the only thing that can spur sweeping change.

They have us a bit cornered. With wages stagnating over the last few decades, asking people to electrify their homes and cars is a difficult proposition. With housing prices to the moon and many living on the streets and in cars, the idea of increasing spend it tough to swallow. I'm unsure we can fix climate if we fail to fix the housing and disposable income inequality issues. Actually fuck that. We can't fix climate without fixing all three.

this. So much public policy is crafted and created without trying to enter the mind of the average voter to see how they see the world.

[SumJongGuy]

I prefer this reality:

Me too

This is status quo best case scenario. Good to know that if we keep fighting to keep things as is with slow but steady progress it's not doomsday. BUT!! we absolutely need to keep status quo. IF the shit kickers control government and actually DO dismantle the EPA in the US and more of Europe falls to Russia or other fascists that status quo best case scenario doesn't hold and we're back to doomsday. FUCKING VOTE!!! Make sure everyone who wants to have a nice world for their great grandkids FUCKING VOTES!

[baron]

the 1 thing that would help, & seems to never get done> plant more trees!

its not even on the governments table of ideas because they cant build mcmansions where trees are planted

[old goat]

The problem with trees is that with global warming and attendant drought already well established the world is losing trees to fire and disease faster than it can grow them. Anyway, by far the most photosynthesis occurs in the ocean--in the form of algae, phytoplankton, photosynthesing bacteria, etc. (Maybe we should encourage algal growth in our swimming pools and pond. Pond scum for the win.)

[raisingarizona13]

the 1 thing that would help, & seems to never get done> plant more trees!

its not even on the governments table of ideas because they cant build mcmansions where trees are planted

The government builds Mc Mansions?

[Buster Highmen]

fwiw, we plant 15-30 sitka spruce, red cedars or douglas firs a year.
maybe it's stupid and useless, but it gives me hope. and it's so cool to stand in a grove of big conifers.

[raisingarizona13]

This is status quo best case scenario. Good to know that if we keep fighting to keep things as is with slow but steady progress it's not doomsday. BUT!! we absolutely need to keep status quo. IF the shit kickers control government and actually DO dismantle the EPA in the US and more of Europe falls to Russia or other fascists that status quo best case scenario doesn't hold and we're back to doomsday. FUCKING VOTE!!! Make sure everyone who wants to have a nice world for their great grandkids FUCKING VOTES!

It's too little too late. The English accent almost had me too, I can't help it. Whenever I watch something informative, English accents make me feel smart and confident in the information being shared with me. It's like purchasing anything labeled artisan or talking about eating vegetables loudly so everyone around can hear how healthy I eat while shopping at Sprouts. White people....am I right?

The apathetic hopeless attitude of the majority of todays youth is our best chance at fighting climate change. Hopefully birthing rates drop way the F off in the next twenty years. Motivated people make progress happen and most "progress" is what got us into this mess.

[SumJongGuy]

Oh the humanity! It never occurred to me but...

[raisingarizona13]

Jesus titty fucking christ.

[skaredshtles]

Oh the humanity! It never occurred to me but...

Don't you get involved in the War on Christmas, pal.