dirtbag, not a dentist
Preliminary estimates on sea level rise are now talking about a rise of about 10 feet or more by 2100. Latest models indicate the Thornwaite glacier will begin to break apart sometime in Mid 2030's. I think we are going to see societal repercussions way before 2050. As data becomes more clear the insurance industry will be the first to pull the plug on coastal properties, probably around 2030 or so. There is likely to be a huge capitol and property loss to many people, companies, and cities. Blue coastal states will be screaming for federal dollars to build levees, pump stations, or other engineered solutions, not every project will be funded. Red midwest states will eventually say sorry no more money for you, you woke liberals. Demands to build a border wall will be louder as more and more climate refugees want to come to the US. Maybe 1 billion climate refugees by 2075. The likelihood of significant abandonment/coastal retreat is becoming greater every year. I am pretty pessimistic about our republic, I do not think it will endure these climate challenges.
I am looking for property with a solid, secure water source, space for solar, safe from wildfire, good Mtbing, and has the ability to grow food for at least 8 months a year. Got any leads? Oh do not forget the guns, your going to need guns, lots of guns
Sea level rise of at least 10ft by 2100? Sea level is currently rising 3mm of year. If the current rate continues, that’s like an inch by 2100. That’s a big jump from where we are now? I know, science(models anyway) says etc. but that’s a massive departure from current rise.
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You're assuming a linear increase in the rising rate ... I have a feeling we're about to see exponential increases in effects as the positive feedback loops start having an impact. A noteworthy one is the decrease in sea ice reflecting more sun radiation back to space.
I'm sure your math would be great news for the folks in the Solomon Islands. You should explain it to them. I read the news today, oh boy
Similarly there is less snow coverage on land, and that's bad.
Yeah, that's not how this is going to go down though unfortunately. I'm no scientist but it's pretty obvious that it's an exponential trend, like rollerballs on some mountain face of hot pow that's shedding. Hopefully it's not as bad or as fast as it's looking to be but only time will tell.
dirtbag, not a dentist
I’m not assuming anything. I’m just saying a 10’+ rise by 2100 is like 130x faster than the current real rate.
Sorry to interrupt to doomsday vibe.
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Rise in global heat, and the effects of increased energy in the system on the water cycle is really scary. I work with teams and individuals that are tasked with responding to both climate and weather influences in providing resources and benefits to our society, and the uncertainty of our plans to mitigate the impacts on our land management and resource needs is very troubling already. The increase in changes from traditional certainties seem to be happening so fast and tenders recovery and mitigation plans moot. And this is in a relatively safe and unmodified (by human influence) ecosystem by world standards.
The solutions are not ‘impossible’, but highly improbable given our need for ever-increasing economic growth. We really need to flatline our consumption, but the wealthiest of the world’s population is supported by the return on their monetary investments, with requires positive growth by our industries. I am a part of that, given my investments and pension, to at least maintain my ‘standard of living’, but what are the alternatives for those that remain in the latter half of this century (or sooner - I will not likely suffer the effects directly as I will be fortunate(?) to live past 2050)?
As for those who think a homestead along with weapons will secure their future, guess again. As it always has been, our collective combined effort is what has always sustained the family unit (and adaptability to move to greener pastures when persecution exceeds capacity to defend). Without community, we perish as a society. Period. Funny, but it is the amish, hutterites and the like that are more like the model we should be following as a society to limit inputs to climate change. Ya, good luck given our need for the Walmarts and Carnival Cruises of society (and adrenaline-inducing lift-assisted downhill skiing).
And finally, kids aren’t the problem - we start at birth with unlimited potential to change the world for the better - it’s us adults who have past the point of potential to effect real change that are the assholes. Overpopulation is a problem only when we only raise kids to be adults in our corrupted image (and those adults perpetuate the cycle). Certainly don’t blame the kids in China or India - they exist at the levels they do to support our western societies.
Last edited by BCMtnHound; 10-26-2023 at 08:33 PM.
…”the study shows a large increase the area of atoll islands, with 61.74 km2 of land added between 2000 and 2017
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...13305421000059
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From your same article: "Most of the change in land area resulted from island building within the Maldives and on atolls in the South China Sea. Since 2000, the Maldives have added 37.50 km2 of land area, while 16.57 km2 of new islands have appeared within the South China Seas Spratly and Paracel chains."
How does the fact that new islands are forming in some places counter the fact that human settlements are being heavily impacted by sea level rise?
This not an honest or innocent argument from xyz. Nobody randomly finds a science direct article about island building in the South Pacific when trying to simply explore climate impacts.
Don't feed the troll!
You seem at least as concerned about climate as most and are doing what you can to live with yourself by having a small footprint.
Hard to argue that we have too many people on the planet, but that isn't the root of the problem. 95% of the people could die tmmrw and we'd still be completely fucked because it is a small percentage of people producing most of the problem and an even smaller percentage working overtime to prevent us from taking meaningful action that would lower our impact.
Masks and vaccines were/are about hope for a vibrant healthy tomorrow, individuals and the collective taking action so society can move forward with less impactful disease ravaging society. Same with trying to effect change for the climate on an individual or more effectively on a collective level. Hope for tomorrow.
I see that crossover pretty clearly. Not surprising a lot of us are in both groups.
Guns aren't doing shit once climate effects cause societal breakdown and collapses. The fascists and authoritarian will remove guns and folk will be forced to consent, or die. Just my opinion. Once we can't vote or those votes don't count the constitution dies and with it the 2nd amendment. My guns are for hunting. My dehydrator is for backpacking food.
Best hope seems to be advocating for action on climate so society doesn't break down and voting for people who need hope in their lives like I do.
The notion that since we're unlikely to achieve net zero emissions globally we might as well just give up seems pretty fucking lame to me. Anything we can do will help. Take the steps we can now and hope for (and foster) technological improvements in the future that could help even more.
I definitely disagree on population. There's too many people and that's having the biggest impact on climate right now. I can't see how anyone could argue against that. We all consume and produce. If we shaved off a few billion it would have a massive positive affect on our environment.
Disease ravaging society may be natures way of trying to keep us in check. That's nature. Religious people and our human egos like to have us believe we are superior in some way but we ain't shit but more life forms eating and shitting everywhere we go just like every other animal on this globe but we somehow developed brains just big enough to create a whole bunch of chaos. It's an unpopular opinion but many will have to die before this shit show becomes balanced in any sort of way. World pees is joke and the human power struggle will never go away. We are all 138 and we are all filthy, dirty killing machines under the proper circumstances. My mask comment is me joking, well sort of.
Guns? Well at least I get a chance at fighting the authoritarian regimes that will be taking over. I'd rather die fighting than roll over in my new "comforting" cage.
dirtbag, not a dentist
The causes of island "building"are rising ocean temps that have killed the coral reefs which break down into debris which is then washed up on shore and becomes new land, the Chinese building military bases on islands that aren't theirs, and land reclamation projects. Not benign natural island building.
I imagine the island of Hawaii has grown a bit naturally though, although vulcanism does add to atmospheric CO2. On Nova--the great Permian extinction, by far the biggest extinction to date, was due to a massive increase in vulcanism leading to enough CO2 to raise temps about 18 degrees. And that die-off occured in the blink of a geological eye--only a few hundred thousand years.
On that less serious note you referenced, Arizona is a long way from cooler Canada. I'm planning my escape in a Kevlar canoe through the porous boundary waters in Minnesota. Portage packs full of provisions and a Silky saw. Moose and bear and then caribou as we flee towards the balmy salt sprayed shores of Hudson Bay.
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