WWMD: Predicting Tucks Conditions

[EstoBum]

Okay this is a long shot - dealing with weather and avalanche conditions over a week in advance.

I am debating whether or not to go to tuckerman's next weekend. It's not an easy choice for 1 day of skiing, since its 12+ hours of driving each way!

I looked at the long term forcast for Mt. washington and it gives me this:
warm and sunny until-
next thursday: 34F-21F light rain/wind
next friday: 25F-19F snow/wind
next saturday: 29F-13F partly cloudy/wind

I know conditions can be variable and wind is a constant at Mt. Washington. But if you had to predict the conditions, what would you say it would be like after those three days. I don't have alot of experience analyzing snow packs/avalance formation etc. but I would guess that it would be firm and icy underneat with a little bit of soft stuff on top, not great conditions for skiing, but not too negative in terms of avalances.

I guess this could be like a practice homework problem for those who know snow formation well. So I'm wondering what other's predicitons would be for the conditions. If these set up for bad avalanches, I might cancel the trip.

Currently, the plan is drive friday, hike/ski saturday, drive sunday. 24 hours of driving for one day of skiing might be excessive to some, but I'm hoping conditions will at least be safe. Please note that I am a maggot, and will probably go anyway.

[Core Shot]

Predicting weather 1 week plus away is worhtless. 5 days max, and even that is sketchy.

As for avy - tucks is in a corn cycle. No avy likely until temps get so warm that wet slides happen. If you get new snow on top of the frozen base, it will likely be only a slough or a thin slab issue.

Now, if you get a mega dump or significant wind loading, watch out.

[robrox]

Tuckerman Ravine will be the finish area for the Son of Inferno (beta http://www.friendsoftuckerman.org/inferno/) race this Sat 4/16. There will be a few hundreds of extra people in the Ravine.

Conditions will be stellar! Did I metion that conditions will be Stellar!?

Oh, I did. I won't be going due to work commitments...drat! A lot of folks are headed to the Gulf of Slides because of the race. More beta at (http://www.tuckerman.org) and even more at (http://www.timefortuckerman.com/ ).